Mash The Gas: Michigan Preview

Kurt Busch leads Jimmie Johnson and a pack of cars during the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway.  [Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan as the Michigan International Speedway hosts the Quicken Loans 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Michigan is a wide two-mile banked oval that should allow the drivers to race three and sometimes four wide on the straightaways but a recent repave a few years ago and increased corner speeds this season may narrow up the groove a bit in the turns. The right side tires Goodyear will bring to this race will be used for the first time at Michigan although the teams have had experience with them already this season at Las Vegas and Kansas.

With ten winners in the first thirteen races, the Chase slots are beginning to fill up and several drivers without a victory this year may soon start to feel the pressure as the summer run rolls on. Michigan is right in the backyard of the American auto manufacturers and both Ford and Chevy would savor a victory here while Toyota will be looking to spoil the party.

Here are some drivers to watch in Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 from Michigan…

Kevin Harvick (Dan Margetta)
Kevin Harvick comes into Michigan as the odds on favorite currently sitting at 7-2 to win on Sunday. He has one Michigan victory to his credit to go along with seven top five finishes and twelve top ten results. Harvick will pilot the same chassis he used to capture his first victory this season in Vegas and in the other race the chassis was used, he finished second at Kansas. Harvick has also finished second here at Michigan in the last four races so he should be due for a victory on Sunday. This team has set the benchmark as the team to beat all season so far and that should continue on Sunday in Michigan.

Matt Kenseth (John Wiedemann)
Since moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, Matt Kenseth hasn’t really shown the Michigan Magic he had at Rousch Fenway Racing. Back when he drove Fords, Kenseth racked up two wins and 12 top five finishes in 27 races at the two mile track. In four races with JGR, Kenseth has one top ten (6th) and has led two laps. Teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, both winners at Michigan, haven fared much better in the last four races. Can the team turn it around with the inclusion of new driver and two-time Michigan winner Carl Edwards? It will be interesting to watch and see how the JGR team handles Michigan. There is as good a chance that all four will be at the front as all four being at the back of the pack.

Kurt Busch (DM)
Like Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Hass teammate Kurt Busch is also using the chassis he drove to an 8th place finish at Kansas. However, the first race this chassis was used was at California where Busch led many laps and had a sure win derailed by an untimely debris caution as the white flag was about to wave. Busch finished third at California but expect him to be just as good at Michigan. He comes into the race at 8-1 odds and his record here includes two victories to go along with four top fives and nine top ten finishes. Look for Kurt Busch to be one of the cars up front on Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (JW)
A two time winner at Michigan, this could be the weekend that Dale Earnhardt Jr captures a second win for the season. Earnhardt is in the top five in NASCAR’s statistics for active drivers at Michigan and had 7th and 5th place finishes at the track last season. Junior is sitting in pretty good spot looking ahead toward the Chase with one win and seeded fifth overall. But another win would lock up a spot in the Chase for him and Michigan fits right in his wheelhouse. A track that, even with the repave, you can still run multiple grooves, 200+mph laps and a race that could come down to fuel mileage are three solid reasons that you could see Earnhardt in victory lane this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (DM)
Historically Michigan has been a track that has been kind to Fords and Brad Keselowski is the one Ford driver who would love to find victory lane here. Michigan is Keselowski’s home track and he has yet to win here despite having some good runs as he owns three top five finishes and four top ten results. The Penske Fords have shown they can run with the Stewart-Hass and Hendrick Chevys this season and expect Brad Keselowski to be pumped up about trying to win at the home track. Keselowski won at the similarly configured California track earlier this year and he enters Michigan at 10-1 odds. Sunday could be the day Brad Keselowski finally finds that elusive victory at Michigan.

Martin Truex Jr. (JW)
Another weekend of leading the pack finally turned into a victory for Martin Truex Jr. Don’t expect him to slow down now. Truex is focused on not letting one victory define his season and is looking for more. Could the Dover win open the floodgates? It is highly probable that it will but I’m thinking that a win won’t be happening this weekend for Truex. Of course I was wrong last week about that and could be again. In eighteen races at Michigan, Truex finished in the top 10 five times (three of those were top 5) and has an average finish of 18th. Kurt Busch had a third place finish for Furniture Row in his last race in 2013 but Truex had 30th place finishes in 2014. This is a different Truex and #78 team in 2015 so, expect to see him up front a lot.

Greg Biffle (DM)
There was a time people would say you were crazy if you told them a Roush-Fenway driver was given 100-1 odds to win at Michigan. Times have changed however and Greg Biffle is my long shot pick this week at that 100-1 mark. Roush-Fenway racing is the winningest organization at the Michigan track and Biffle owns four victories of his own to go along with ten top five finishes and fifteen top ten results. While the performance of Biffle and the Roush teams has fallen so far in the past two years that they at times have been the punch lines to jokes, Biffle’s second place finish at Charlotte showed everyone that they have made significant progress in closing that performance gap. That progress should show at Michigan and at 100-1 odds to go along with their historical record here, they are worth a shot this week.

Kyle Busch (JW)
One driver who really needs a win is Kyle Busch. After getting knocked out of the race at Dover, Busch responded last weekend with a solid top ten finish at Pocono. Now 151 points out of 30th place, Busch needs to turn it on and have one hot summer. Michigan hasn’t produced great results for Busch recently but he has won there before and can get it done again. A win may not come this weekend but consistent running at the front of the pack will put him in a position to win one of these weeks and get him into the top thirty to make the Chase. Add the fact that it may take Busch two wins to make the Chase and the drama is amped up. I think it will be exciting to see him strive for the Chase and for that reason, Kyle Busch will be one to watch every weekend.

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