Mash The Gas: Kansas Preview

Kevin Harvick leads the field at the start of the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. [Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The second race of the Contender Round of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup is set for Sunday afternoon as the Kansas Speedway hosts the Hollywood Casino 400.

Last week’s race at Charlotte left many of the Chasers in a tough spot entering the Kansas event which should turn up the pressure this weekend as no one wants to go to the elimination race at Talladega in a do or die situation.

Kansas is another 1.5 mile oval that seems to race similar to Chicago than Charlotte and so far this season the Stewart-Haas/Hendrick Chevrolets, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, and most recently the Penske Fords have all taken their turn at the top on the “cookie cutter” circuits.

A win here on Sunday guarantees a driver a free pass through Talladega and into the next Chase round so the competition to reach victory lane should be fierce, especially among the big name Chasers that need that victory badly.

It will all play out on Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400 from the Kansas Speedway and here are some drivers to watch…

Matt Kenseth (Dan Margetta)
Much like Kevin Harvick in the first Chase round, Matt Kenseth’s 42nd place finish last week leaves him on the ropes in what is perhaps the toughest round of the Chase. Currently sitting in 12th place in the points, 33 markers out of the cut-off, Kenseth desperately needs a strong run at Kansas and maybe even a victory. He owns two Kansas victories and is record also includes six top five finishes and eleven top ten results. This is perhaps the first time Matt Kenseth and the #20 team have been put in such a desperation mode situation and typically they are not known to swing for the fences. On the other hand, Matt Kenseth performs best when under pressure so don’t be surprised if we see the second walk-off performance in this year’s Chase. Matt Kenseth and the #20 team are good enough to pull it off even if their backs are up against the wall.

Jeff Gordon (John Wiedemann)
Jeff Gordon is in a pretty good position to move forward in the Chase and can solidify that position with, not necessarily a win but, a solid finish at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Going off recent stats, Gordon is the most likely to have a great run after averaging a tenth place finish in the last 15 events at Kansas and winning three races at the track including the inaugural race there. In 19 starts at Kansas, Gordon has 13 top ten finishes, so it is pretty likely that he will score another this weekend. Although he is just one spot ahead of the cutoff, he is up eight points on Ryan Newman in ninth and twelve points over Kyle Busch in tenth. A solid top five run will make next weekend’s Talladega race a little more comfortable for Gordon. And, if he can make it through the next two races and move to the next round of the Chase, Martinsville awaits to propel him into the Championship round.

Kyle Busch (DM)
Kyle Busch is another driver that despite having dominating success this season, finds himself in dire straits heading into Kansas. After a pit road collision with Kyle Larson last weekend at Charlotte, Busch finds himself in 10th place in the points, ten points outside the elimination point. Busch responded well in the previous Chase round with a strong run at Dover to move on but this time it may be different. Kansas has always been Kyle Busch’s kryptonite as just about all his title runs have come to an end here. Last season, Busch seemed to put the Kansas demons behind him with a top five run and he will definitely need another strong performance to keep his hopes alive this year. He owns a single top five finish here to go along with only three top ten results. Kyle Busch has defied odds all season long through injury and bad luck and once again he needs to fight his way back into contention. Kansas could be a make or break weekend for Kyle Busch and the #18 team.

Carl Edwards (JW)
While times are tough for Carl Edwards teammates Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth, all is good for Carl Edwards. Even though he has yet to win a Cup race at the track closest to his hometown, Edwards has run really well at Kansas with eleven top ten and six top five finishes in sixteen races there. Stuck in my memory is still the time that Edwards tried to pass Jimmie Johnson for the win in the 2008 race by overdriving turn three and trying to bounce his car off of the outside wall. Edwards said it worked in the video game and it almost worked in the race. Doing whatever it takes to get the win and move forward in the Chase is one thing, but Edwards is somewhat safe currently in sixth place and a more conservative race may just be all he needs to stay safe in the championship hunt. It is Carl Edwards though and if he has a shot at the win, it will be exciting to see him try to get it and backflip afterwards.

Brad Keselowski (DM)
Brad Keselowski and the #2 team appear to be point racing their way toward the final this season as they have had “good enough” runs without capturing a victory during the Chase. Keselowski’s lone win in 2015 came way back at California and he only led one lap—the last one. After teammate Joey Logano dominated Charlotte last week, the Penske Fords may have hit on something and the team’s focus should turn to getting Keselowski the free pass to the next round that Logano already has. Brad Keselowski has one Kansas career win to go with two top five finishes and five top ten results and he has finished in the top ten in every race on a 1.5 mile circuit in 2015. Keselowski currently occupies the cut-off spot in eighth place but he is nowhere near safe. With Talladega looming on the horizon, no one can play it safe at Kansas so watch for Brad Keselowski to be on a mission to join his teammate in the next Chase round.

Kevin Harvick (JW)
A win at Dover moved Kevin Harvick into the Contender round of the Chase. Last week’s second place finish at Charlotte along with a solid finish this weekend can propel Harvick into round three of the Chase, the Eliminator round. Harvick led 53 laps, the second most, in the May race at Kansas on his way to finishing second, one of the many runner-up finishes he has had this season. If Harvick can repeat that performance, he will be set to move to the next round and not have to sweat about finishing up front in Talladega next weekend. A win would put him automatically into the next Chase round and that is certainly possible for the driver who looked like he could have been bounced out of round one until he pulled off the dominating victory at Dover.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (DM)
Junior Nation has been on pins and needles all week long after Dale Earnhardt Junior fell to 11th in points after Charlotte. Dale Jr. sits 19 points out of the transfer spot and he can’t afford to have a bad race at Kansas. He has yet to win here but does have three top five finishes and nine top tens. Many fans have thought this could be the year Dale Earnhardt Jr. finally gets his championship and the Kansas race on Sunday will be the first test of his resolve. A bad run here could signal the end of his championship hopes while a victory puts him right back into title contention. We’ll see how bad Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the #88 team want this championship this weekend at Kansas.

Martin Truex Jr. (JW)
Quietly, Martin Truex Jr. is having a great Chase run. That streak should be continued this weekend and could result in a victory. Truex led the most laps in Kansas in May on his way to finishing ninth. Past stats at Kansas include back to back runner-up finishes back in 2012 as well as five top tens in fourteen races. Truex is in third place in the Chase standings, twelve points ahead of ninth place. Another top five finish could double that gap and give Truex a nice cushion heading into Talladega. Truex’s recent runs in the Chase are looking close to the way he was running in the beginning of the season when he reeled off fourteen top ten finishes in the first fifteen point races. If Truex returns to that form, he will be in the Championship round.

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