RacingNation.com

Mash The Gas – Homestead Preview

The long and sometimes grueling 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season winds to a conclusion with this Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway as Brad Keselowski and car owner Roger Penske are on the cusp of their first ever Sprint Cup Championship while perennial favorite Jimmie Johnson remains the only distant challenger.

Stories to watch at Homestead:
Brad Keselowski
Dan Margetta: Brad Keselowski and the #2 team are on the verge of their first championship and merely need to finish 15th or better to clinch the title. While they have a sizeable lead, it’s important for this team to not forget what brought them to this point and not detour from that philosophy in the final event. Too many times championships have been lost by teams abandoning their season-long mantra in favor of a spur of the moment change. Back in 1990, Mark Martin and Jack Roush elected to use a Robert Yates Racing Ford instead of their own following a pre-race test prior to the final event in Atlanta and the change cost them in the race as they lost the title to Dale Earnhardt Sr. by 26 points. Then in 2010, Denny Hamlin and the #11 team switched the set-up in their car to one similar to teammate Kyle Busch after Busch performed considerably faster in the final weekend’s opening practice. However, the track changed by the time qualifying took place and both Hamlin and Busch found themselves with poor qualifying efforts whereas the original set-up in Hamlin’s car would have worked better for those track conditions. In the race that year, Hamlin got caught up in an incident early on and lost the championship to Jimmie Johnson despite leading going into the final weekend. Keselowski has never taken it easy this season and has raced for the win each and every week, never afraid of taking chances to get the checkered flag. They need to keep that up at Homestead realizing they have a bigger cushion to fall back on should things begin to go awry. The rear bumper of the #2 Dodge will sport the tag line ‘In It 2 Win It’ and if they continue to perform like they have over the last nine weeks of the Chase, they will be the 2012 Sprint Cup Champions.

John Wiedemann: The thought that someone could get inside Brad Keselowski’s head seems unlikely to me. The 1990 event at Atlanta that Dan talks about was the first NASCAR race that I ever attended and I remember being amazed at the strategy that the Roush organization chose. Keselowski comes from a solid racing family that has been involved in championship fights before, admittedly not on this level though. The only thing that would concern me about his shot at the Cup is the same thing that got him to this point, I don’t see Keselowski letting up on his hard charging style and that could get him into trouble. That being said, I firmly believe he should stick with what got him to this point and he will win the first Sprint Cup championship for Penske Racing in their 29 years of NASCAR competition.

Jimmie Johnson
DM: By contrast, Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team really have nothing to lose going into the Homestead race. They don’t have a strong record here but have never really had to race this hard for the title. In 2004, Johnson was up to the task as he, Jeff Gordon, and Kurt Busch staged a torrid battle for the championship in the Homestead event with Busch barely edging Johnson by eight points. Look for Johnson and the #48 team to try to lead every practice and sit on the pole to try to get Brad Keselowski and the #2 team to think they need to run harder than they have to in order to win the championship. If they are successful, they can take advantage of Keselowski’s inexperience in championship bouts and pressure him into making a mistake to open the door for Johnson’s sixth title.

JW: Jimmy Johnson is my pick to win the race but not the war at Homestead. The #48 team unloaded at Phoenix and surprisingly didn’t perform up to expectations. The blown tire and wall meeting left them at a big defecit coming into this weekend. Now, the championship battle is taken out of their hands and Keselowski is in control. Johnson can do everything possible and still fall short if Bad Brad finishes in the top fifteen. What looked like Johnson closing in on Intimidator and the King’s territory may have to wait for another year.

Matt Kenseth
DM: There may be some added incentive to pull off the win for Matt Kenseth as the Ford EcoBoost 400 will be his final race in the #17, his only ride since he began running full-time in 2000. Kenseth and the #17 team have deep roots with some extending all the way back to the short track days in Wisconsin and while circumstances have dictated they will no longer be together after Sunday, a victory in the final ride would be icing on the cake to go along with 24 previous wins including two Daytona 500’s and a championship in their 13 years together. Kenseth and the team will bring the same car they used to win at Kansas a few weeks ago and Homestead is one of his favorite tracks.

Greg Biffle
DM: Biffle has shown a lot of speed at tracks similar to Homestead and he won three events in a row here from 2004-2006. Roush-Fenway racing has won six of the last eight races at Homestead and Biffle and the #16 team wants to close out the season on a high note after seeing their championship hopes fade in the last few weeks.

JW: Roush-Fenway Racing is strong at Homestead and Greg Biffle may find some old magic to return to victory lane this weekend. No matter how it turns out, this season was a solid and great turnaround for the #16 team. Even with his championship chances gone, Biffle has been finishing the Chase strong and this weekend should be no exception.

Carl Edwards
DM: We can’t forget about Edwards this week as he also pilots one of the potent Roush-Fenway Fords and has two Homestead victories to his credit. While winless in what has amounted to a very disappointing season, this is Edward’s last shot at some sort of 2012 redemption after finishing second here last year and losing the championship on a tie breaker.

JW: Where has Carl Edwards been? After racing Tony Stewart for the win at Homestead last year, Edwards has faded to a distant memory. A win this weekend or even contending for the win would actually be a surprise but shouldn’t be, considering his statistics at Homestead. Edwards is one driver who can’t wait to start again fresh in February 2013.

Jeff Gordon
DM: Jeff Gordon and DuPont will celebrate 20 years together this weekend at Homestead with what may amount to be a big target on their back. A lot of drivers, crew members, and owners are unhappy with Gordon’s Phoenix antics where he intentionally wrecked Clint Bowyer and I’m not sure anyone will give him a break this week at Homestead. Homestead is one of the tracks, along with Kentucky, that Jeff Gordon has yet to win at and it may be a bit more difficult than usual this year for Gordon to knock Homestead off that list.

JW: While there are reasons for Jeff Gordon wrecking Clint Bowyer last weekend, that doesn’t make his actions right or something that one would expect from a champion in the sport. Racing is racing and everybody gets into everybody at one point and Gordon certainly has a list of drivers that he has ticked off in the past. No doubt this has been a trying year for Gordon as he fought adversity to get into the Chase and then fought to climb in the standings. That climb has been dashed after a 25 point penalty NASCAR imposed, knocking him out of the top ten.

Clint Bowyer
DM: With a lap to go at Phoenix, Bowyer and the #15 team thought they had a shot to finish second in the season standings. Then along came Jeff Gordon and before they knew it, they were in the wall, fighting in the garage, and falling all the way back to fourth in points. Without a good run this week at Homestead, the season will end for this team on a very bitter note which could carry over into 2013, which is why they need a good finish on Sunday.

JW: Phoenix was a sad note to what has been a great season for Michael Waltrip Racing. First Matrin Truex Jr loses an engine in the opening laps, then Clint Bowyer is wrecked by Jeff Gordon ending any shot at a championship, and finally Mark Martin’s is wrecked in the last lap crash. This weekend gives the team a chance to finish the season strong and head into 2013 looking for another shot at the championship.

Chase Standings heading into Homestead:
Brad Keselowski 2371 points, 15th or better finish nets him the Championship
Jimmie Johnson 2351 points, blown tire costs him big time, 20 points behind BK
Kasey Kahne 2321 points, 50 points back, can only shoot for second place now
Clint Bowyer 2319 points, championship hopes crashed at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin 2309 points, up to 5th and 62 points back
Matt Kenseth 2297 points, 74 points behind leader
Greg Biffle 2293 points, up 3 spots, 78 points out of lead
Kevin Harvick 2285 points, wins and gains 3 in standings
Tony Stewart 2284 points, 87 points behind
Martin Truex Jr. 2260 points, motor issue drops him 2 spots
Jeff Gordon 2256 points, points penalty drops him six spots in standings
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2211 points, missed 2 Chase races, 160 points back

Share Button