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Mash The Gas: California Preview

Jimmie Johnson leads the pack at Auto Club Speedway. [Tom Pennington/NASCAR via Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series wraps up its Western Swing Sunday as the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California hosts the Auto Club 400.

Auto Club 400
Auto Club Speedway
400 miles (200 laps)
Sunday, March 20 3:30pm ET
TV: FOX, 3pm ET
MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Auto Club Speedway is a fast wide two mile oval and will serve as the first test of the low downforce aero rules on the two mile configuration.

So far in 2016, we have seen four different faces in victory lane in the first four races and while the same cast of characters should find themselves at the front of the pack, a strong possibility exists for a fifth different winner on Sunday as there are plenty of strong race teams and drivers yet to win. The new aero rules have made the cars slide around more and Auto Club Speedway is one of the widest tracks on the circuit which should open up multiple lanes for the drivers to use and could lead to three or four abreast action.

There’s plenty of room in California and here are some drivers to keep an eye on as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series concludes its time out West…

Kyle Busch (Dan Margetta)
Kyle Busch didn’t participate in last year’s event due to injuries so the defending Sprint Cup champion hasn’t seen Fontana in over a year. All you have to do is look at his record here to see that despite the absence Kyle Busch remains a favorite at California. He won here in 2014, won here in 2013, and he was second in 2012 and third in 2011. That’s finishes of first, first, second, and third in his last four races here. Kyle Busch is listed at 6-1 odds and he’s opened the year with four straight top five finishes. Kyle Busch has been a contender every week so far in 2016 and I think Sunday is where he breaks through for a victory which would make it five different winners to open up the season if you are keeping score.

Kevin Harvick (John Wiedemann)
Last week’s winner at Phoenix is always very good at Phoenix. He isn’t bad at Auto Club Speedway either. One win, five top five and ten top finishes go along with an average finish of 12.9 in 22 races to make a pretty nice stat line for Kevin Harvick. Look for Harvick to remain one of the quickest drivers at the track and parlay that into a great run on Sunday. Harvick has been running at the top of the charts all season and with last week’s victory is the top driver in the Sprint Cup Series standings. I expect that continue and for Harvick to pick up another win this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson (DM)
Jimmie Johnson has been the best driver statistically at Auto Club Speedway, having won there five times already. His twelve top five finishes and fifteen top tens give him a series-best 6.4 average finish as well. This season Johnson and the #48 team already have their victory, having won at Atlanta and they have been strong contenders in every race so far in 2016. They will be tough once again this week as Jimmie Johnson is listed as the 5-1 odds on favorite to win. Jimmie Johnson is right at home in California and wide race track and new rules should suit his driving style well. If you are looking for your first repeat winner of 2016, Jimmie Johnson would be a good bet to be that guy.

Carl Edwards (JW)
Carl Edwards has a victory at the Auto Club Speedway and the second best average finish in the series with 8.9. After last weekend’s near miss of a trip to victory lane, Edwards should be fired up to get there this weekend and I expect him to again battle Harvick for the win this weekend. The way things are looking right now, Edwards and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates may make this 2016 season a long one for the rest of the series drivers. After a rough start last year, Edwards has found his stride with JGR and along with the rest of the team is getting results that make other teams jealous. Look for another top five this weekend as well as a shot at the win.

Kurt Busch (DM)
Last year, this race belonged to Kurt Busch. He led the most laps and was on his way to victory when a late race debris caution derailed his efforts and he slipped to third place on the final lap. Kurt Busch is back this year and ready to claim what should have been his a year ago. Busch and the #41 team have opened the year out strong, racking up four top ten finishes to go along with two pole positions. Kurt Busch is listed at 10-1 odds this week and his Fontana record includes a victory and seven top five finishes. While teammate Kevin Harvick got his first 2016 win last week, Kurt Busch and the #41 team have been right with Harvick and the #4 group performance wise and Sunday at California should present them with a prime opportunity to pick up their first victory of the season.

Matt Kenseth (JW)
Matt Kenseth captured his best finish of a rough start to the season last week at Phoenix with a 7th place finish. Kenseth’s results in the first three races have not been representative with how he ran in those races and finally, at Phoenix, the results were closer to what is expected week in an week out. Maybe that run will get the bad luck out of the way and set Kenseth off on a run at the front of the pack. With three wins, nine top five and fifteen top ten finishes at Auto Club Speedway, this weekend should be a good one for Kenseth to continue his run up the standings. I’m not predicting Kenseth to win, but I expect him to be in a tight battle with his teammates at the end and a top five finish.

Austin Dillon (DM)
Austin Dillon is my long shot pick this week as he enters the Fontana weekend at 30-1 odds. Dillon has really come on at the beginning of this season and has been hanging out near the front of the pack each week with a best finish of fifth coming two weeks ago in Las Vegas. Dillon will drive the same chassis that teammate Ryan Newman drove to a fifth place finish here at Auto Club Speedway a year ago and the new aero rules should be in his wheel house as well. Usually that first wins follows a few weeks of running up front and Dillon and the #3 team have accomplished that the last few weeks. The Vegas fifth place finish was impressive as they recovered from some pit miscues where Dillon nearly came unglued on the radio. If Austin Dillon can keep his cool and everyone on the team does their job this week, this team could be a surprise visitor to victory lane. They are on the cusp of their first win and it could come on Sunday at Auto Club Speedway.

Ryan Blaney (JW)
To some, Ryan Blaney’s results this season are a big surprise. But, if you paid attention to his races last year with the Wood Brothers, Blaney normally had a fast car that would run towards the front, but then not make it to the end of the race. Consistency and reliability were lacking but the driver showed he could go fast and compete. Fast forward to this season with a full season ride and the team is consistent and reliable. Blaney is twelfth in the point standings and running up front. The season is still young but he is making a race of the rookie of the year battle which many thought would be a runaway victory by Chase Elliott. Blaney is one to watch, along with Elliott and Austin Dillon – these guys are the future of NASCAR.

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