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Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: TUMS Fast Relief 500
THE PLACE: Martinsville Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, October 30, 2011 – 1:43pm/et, 12:43pm/ct

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60+-year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must. Martinsville is tough on car and driver. That will be evident once again on Sunday, as the track hosts the Tums Fast Relief 500.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 29 Kevin Harvick
6) 99 Carl Edwards
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 2 Brad Keselowski
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 39 Ryan Newman
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 5 Mark Martin
14) 1 Jamie McMurray
15) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
17) 14 Tony Stewart
18) 22 Kurt Busch
19) 9 Marcos Ambrose
20) 83 Brian Vickers
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
23) 6 David Ragan
24) 16 Greg Biffle
25) 27 Paul Menard

MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
1 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Winterguard Ford)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 16.9 in 14 races
• Average Running Position of 16.0, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 81.1, 14th-best
• 647 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• 3,721 Laps in the Top 15 (57.1%), 10th-most
• 390 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

2 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.8 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 18.7, 18th-best
• Driver Rating of 76.8, 17th-best
• 667 Green Flag Passes, second-most

3 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 13.7 in three races
• Average Running Position of 19.4, 19th-best
• Driver Rating of 72.4, 20th-best

4 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 13.9 in 25 races
• Average Running Position of 10.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
• 361 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 544 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.127 mph, fourth-fastest
• 4,905 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), third-most
• 299 Quality Passes, 10th-most

5 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 16.5 in 20 races
• Average Running Position of 14.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.1, seventh-best
• 169 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.912 mph, ninth-fastest
• 4,091 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), seventh-most
• 300 Quality Passes, ninth-most

6 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s – Halloween Toyota)
• Six top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.6 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 13.9, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.3, sixth-best
• 217 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 655 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.038 mph, sixth-fastest
• 4,384 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), sixth-most
• 406 Quality Passes, third-most

7 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 MyLowes Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 13 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 5.6 in 19 races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
• Series-best Driver Rating of 121.9
• 635 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 91.435 mph
• Series-high 5,950 Laps in the Top 15 (91.3%)
• Series-high 468 Quality Passes

8 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 21.1 in 22 races
• Average Running Position of 17.8, 16th-best
• Driver Rating of 79.4, 16th-best
• 570 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• 3,281 Laps in the Top 15 (50.3%), 13th-most

9 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew Paint the 88/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.3 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best
• 400 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Series-high 712 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.114 mph, fifth-fastest
• 4,785 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4%), fifth-most

10 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Seven wins, 24 top fives, 30 top 10s; seven poles
• Average finish of 7.0 in 37 races
• Average Running Position of 6.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 119.7, second-best
• Series-high 678 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.420 mph, second-fastest
• 5,851 Laps in the Top 15 (89.8%), second-most
• 428 Quality Passes, second-most

11 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• Four wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 6.6 in 12 races
• Average Running Position of 9.1, third-best
• Driver Rating of 113.0, third-best
• 414 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.259 mph, third-fastest
• 4,853 Laps in the Top 15 (80.6%), fourth-most

12 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, nine top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 14.6 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 14.8, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
• 621 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 306 Quality Passes, eighth-most

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1949.
• Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven poles.
• Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Darrell Waltrip share the consecutive pole record, each with three.
• Jeff Gordon leads active drivers with seven wins. Jimmie Johnson has six and Denny Hamlin has four.
• 19 races have been won from the pole, the last by Denny Hamlin in October 2010.
• Petty Enterprises has won 19 races, more than any other organization. Hendrick Motorsports, with 18 wins, can tie that mark this weekend. If HMS does win this weekend, it will also be the team’s 200th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory.
• Three active drivers average a top-10 finish: Jimmie Johnson (5.6), Denny Hamlin (6.6) and Jeff Gordon (7.0).
• There were 31 lead changes in the April Martinsville race this season, a track record.

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