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Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500
THE PLACE: Martinsville Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, April 3, 2011 – 1:13pm/et, 12:13pm/ct

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60+year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 39 Ryan Newman
6) 99 Carl Edwards
7) 18 Kyle Busch
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 17 Matt Kenseth
15) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
16) 22 Kurt Busch
17) 9 Marcos Ambrose
18) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 27 Paul Menard
22) 4 Kasey Kahne
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 2 Brad Keselowski
25) 16 Greg Biffle

MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 13 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 5.3
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
• Series-best Driver Rating of 122.5
• 591 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 491 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 91.441 mph
• Series-high 5,457 Laps in the Top 15 (90.7%)
• Series-high 414 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• Four wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 6.1
• Average Running Position of 9.5, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 112.5, third-best
• 357 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 504 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.240 mph, third-fastest
• 4,373 Laps in the Top 15 (79.2%), fifth-most
• 333 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Seven wins, 23 top fives, 29 top 10s; seven poles
• Average finish of 7.1
• Average Running Position of 6.5, second-best
• Driver Rating of 120.5, second-best
• Series-high 644 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.435 mph, second-fastest
• 5,392 Laps in the Top 15 (89.6%), second-most
• 369 Quality Passes, second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One top five, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 17.3
• Average Running Position of 14.5, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 92.6, sixth-best
• 128 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.915 mph, ninth-fastest
• 3,922 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), sixth-most
• 270 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, nine top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 14.3
• Average Running Position of 15.1, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
• 551 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.798 mph, 12th-fastest
• 3,347 Laps in the Top 15 (55.6%), 11th-most
• 259 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
• Five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 16.7
• Average Running Position of 14.8, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.0, seventh-best
• 169 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 589 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• 3,892 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), seventh-most
• 356 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.6
• Average Running Position of 14.6, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.0, eighth-best
• 260 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 517 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 3,724 Laps in the Top 15 (61.9%), eighth-most
• 304 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot / Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 8.9, third-best
• Driver Rating of 106.8, fourth-best
• 360 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.213 mph, fourth-fastest
• 4,902 Laps in the Top 15 (81.4%), third-most
• 298 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Quaker State / GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 12 top fives, 24 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 13.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.9, ninth-best
• 113 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.963 mph, seventh-fastest

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 15.1
• Driver Rating of 83.0, 13th-best
• 114 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 493 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• 226 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Eight top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.8
• Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.7, fifth-best
• 385 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Series-high 627 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.119 mph, fifth-fastest
• 4,405 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2%), fourth-most
• 329 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet)
• One top five, five top 10s
• Average finish of 15.3
• Average Running Position of 15.6, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.3, 12th-best
• 3,134 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4%), 13th-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Widia Chevrolet)
• One top five, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 16.3
• Average Running Position of 15.7, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.5, 11th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.784 mph, 13th-fastest
• 3,352 Laps in the Top 15 (55.7%), 10th-most

MARTINSVILLE HIGHLIGHTS
• Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1949.
• 55 drivers have won poles, led by Darrell Waltrip with eight. Jeff Gordon, with seven poles, can tie that mark this weekend.
• 45 different drivers have won, led by Richard Petty’s 15.
• Jeff Gordon leads active drivers with seven wins. Jimmie Johnson has six and Denny Hamlin has four.
• 19 races have been won from the pole, the last by Denny Hamlin in October 2010.
• Petty Enterprises has won 19 races, more than any other organization. Hendrick Motorsports, with 18 wins, can tie that mark this weekend.
• Three active drivers average a top 10: Jimmie Johnson (5.3), Denny Hamlin (6.0) and Jeff Gordon (7.0).

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