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Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY
Tums Fast Relief 500
Sunday, October 24, 2010 in Martinsville, VA

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60-year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must. Martinsville is tough – on car and driver. That will be evident once again on Sunday, as the track hosts the Tums Fast Relief 500.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 39 Ryan Newman
6) 33 Clint Bowyer
7) 5 Mark Martin
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 1 Jamie McMurray
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 99 Carl Edwards
12) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
13) 29 Kevin Harvick
14) 20 Joey Logano
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 16 Greg Biffle
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 2 Kurt Busch
19) 47 Marcos Ambrose
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
23) 9 Kasey Kahne
24) 13 Casey Mears
25) 12 Brad Keselowski

MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 12 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.4 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 6.3, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 123.8
? 583 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.472 mph, second-fastest
? 4,996 Laps in the Top 15 (90.5%), second-most
? Series-high 347 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Three wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.6 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 9.8, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 111.4, third-best
? 335 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 450 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.247 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,909 Laps in the Top 15 (77.9%), fifth-most
? 284 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Seven wins, 23 top fives, 29 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 6.7 in 35 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.3
? Driver Rating of 123.0, second-best
? Series-high 618 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 91.498 mph
? Series-high 5,012 Laps in the Top 15 (90.8%)
? 329 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 17.8 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 15.3, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.9, seventh-best
? 161 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 537 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.999 mph, sixth-fastest
? 3,501 Laps in the Top 15 (63.4%), sixth-most
? 321 Quality Passes, third-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 14.0, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 85.8, 13th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.864 mph, 11th-fastest
? 3,010 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), 13th-most
? 220 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)

? One win, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8 in 32 races
? Average Running Position of 15.5, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.8, 10th-best
? 175 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 456 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.920 mph, eighth-fastest
? 3,240 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), eighth-most
? 249 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.6 in 23 races
? Average Running Position of 8.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 108.4, fourth-best
? 353 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 441 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.250 mph, third-fastest
? 4,454 Laps in the Top 15 (80.7%), third-most
? 270 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 17.5 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 16.5, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 81.0, 16th-best
? 99 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 506 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? 3,026 Laps in the Top 15 (54.8%), 12th-most
? 302 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Seven top 10s
? Average finish of 18.1 in 18 races
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.1, sixth-best
? 3,491 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), seventh-most
? 220 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? Two top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 16.3 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 18.6, 18th-best
? Driver Rating of 75.7, 19th-best
? 509 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Scotch Blue Ford)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 22.3 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 23.7, 32nd-best
? Driver Rating of 64.6, 28th-best
? 479 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 21.6 in 20 races
? Average Running Position of 17.2, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 81.8, 15th-best
? 108 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 3,048 Laps in the Top 15 (55.2%), 11th-most
? 189 Quality Passes, 13th-most

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1950.
? 55 drivers have won poles, led by Darrell Waltrip with eight. Jeff Gordon, with seven poles, can tie that mark this weekend.
? 45 different drivers have won, led by Richard Petty’s 15.
? Jeff Gordon leads active drivers, with seven wins. Jimmie Johnson has six.
? Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson have combined to win each of the last eight races.
? 18 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson in October 2008.
? Petty Enterprises has won 19 races, more than any other organization. Hendrick Motorsports, with 18 wins, can tie that mark this weekend.
? Three active drivers average a top-10: Jimmie Johnson (5.4), Jeff Gordon (6.7), Denny Hamlin (6.6).
? The last six races that have ended under green have had a margin of victory under one second.

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