RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY
Tums Fast Relief 500
Sunday, October 25, 2009 in Martinsville, VA

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60-year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must.

Martinsville is tough – on car and driver. That will be evident once again on Sunday, as the track hosts the Tums Fast Relief 500. As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other short tracks such as Bristol and Richmond, other flat milers such as Phoenix and Loudon, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Martinsville.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 14 Tony Stewart
6) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
7) 2 Kurt Busch
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 99 Carl Edwards
12) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13) 16 Greg Biffle
14) 29 Kevin Harvick
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 07 Casey Mears
17) 17 Matt Kenseth
18) 9 Kasey Kahne
19) 47 Marcos Ambrose
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 83 Brian Vickers
22) 26 Jamie McMurray
23) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
24) 20 Joey Logano
25) 44 A.J. Allmendinger

Martinsville Speedway, site of Sunday’s race, represents the first of two “wild-card” races in the Chase (the second being Talladega). Due to its tight, precarious half-mile layout, contact between cars is commonplace, opening the possibility for multi-car incidents and huge shake-ups in the standings. Despite this, Jimmie Johnson may very well pad his lead by the conclusion of the race. He is significantly ahead in my power rankings over the likes of Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin and the rest of the Chase competitors.

SELECTED MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 11 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.3 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 6.6, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 124.3
? 482 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.403 mph, second-fastest
? 4,001 Laps in the Top 15 (88.7%), second-most
? Series-high 242 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Seven wins, 21 top fives, 27 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 6.8 in 33 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.3
? Driver Rating of 124.3, second-best
? Series-high 539 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 91.463 mph
? Series-high 4,039 Laps in the Top 15 (89.6%)

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 8.0 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 106.3, fourth-best
? 194 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 321 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.110 mph, fifth-fastest
? 3,012 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%), fifth-most
? 190 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 11 top fives, 22 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 13.3 in 43 races
? Average Running Position of 15.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 82.3, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.734 mph, 11th-fastest

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.1 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 7.0, third-best
? Driver Rating of 114.1, third-best
? 338 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.305 mph, third-fastest
? 3,971 Laps in the Top 15 (88.0%), third-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 12.6 in five races
? Average Running Position of 16.8, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.4, 15th-best

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 21.8 in 18 races
? Average Running Position of 17.7, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 81.1, 14th-best
? 83 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 2,500 Laps in the Top 15 (55.4%), ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 14.4 in 15 races
? Average Running Position of 16.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.4, 10th-best
? 391 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? 2,207 Laps in the Top 15 (48.9%), 12th-most
? 149 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 18.2 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 17.3, 15th-best
? Driver Rating of 80.0, 16th-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 341 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 23.1 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 23.7, 28th-best
? Driver Rating of 65.5, 26th-best
? 306 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 18.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 20.2, 19th-best
? Driver Rating of 76.1, 18th-best
? 102 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 22.6 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 19.7, 18th-best
? Driver Rating of 73.5, 19th-best
? 114 Quality Passes, 13th-most

OTHER MARTINSVILLE HIGHLIGHTS
? Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville in 1949.
? Jeff Gordon is the leading active driver with seven poles.
? 45 different drivers have won races, led by Richard Petty with 15.
? 17 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson in October 2008.
? Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven victories.
? Three drivers average a top-10 finish: Jimmie Johnson (5.3), Jeff Gordon (6.8), Denny Hamlin (8.0).

Share Button