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Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500, Sunday, March 29, 2009 in Martinsville, VA

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60+year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other short tracks such as Bristol and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in drivers? average running position, laps led, and practice & qualifying results from their most recent runs at Martinsville.

TOP TWENTY

1) 24 Jeff Gordon

2) 48 Jimmie Johnson

3) 11 Denny Hamlin

4) 18 Kyle Busch

5) 99 Carl Edwards

6) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

7) 14 Tony Stewart

8) 33 Clint Bowyer

9) 31 Jeff Burton

10) 29 Kevin Harvick

11) 9 Kasey Kahne

12) 17 Matt Kenseth

13) 16 Greg Biffle

14) 2 Kurt Busch

15) 39 Ryan Newman

16) 26 Jamie McMurray

17) 83 Brian Vickers

18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

19) 00 David Reutimann

20) 5 Mark Martin

Last Sunday?s race at Bristol Motor Speedway saw two teammates battle for the win, as Kyle Busch yet again found Victory Lane, this time ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. It will probably happen again this Sunday. But this time, watch for two Hendrick Motorsports teammates to toss allegiances aside in the name of victory.

Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are in a class by themselves when discussing Martinsville favorites. The two have combined for an absurd nine of the last 12 Martinsville wins. Johnson has five during that span to Gordon?s four. Johnson has owned the paper clip short track more so recently. With wins in four of the last five races, Martinsville ranks near the top of a crowded list of tracks at which Johnson excels. His average Martinsville finish is 5.6. Only at Phoenix does the three-time champion fare better ? his average finish is 5.5 there.

Before Johnson burst onto the Martinsville scene, Gordon was king of the premises. He has seven wins there and has finished in the top five in the last eight Martinsville races. Unlike Johnson, Gordon?s most successful track ? by far ? is Martinsville. In 32 races there, Gordon has an average finish of 6.9, almost two full positions better than his second-best track (Indianapolis, 8.6).

SELECTED MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Seven wins, 20 top fives, 26 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 6.9
? Average Running Position of 6.8, second-best
? Driver Rating of 124.0, second-best
? Series-high 467 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-fastest average Green Flag Speed of 91.520 mph
? 3,539 (88.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? Series-high 220 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 10 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
? Series-best Driver Rating of 124.7
? 446 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.462 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 3,579 (89.3%) Laps in the Top 15
? 214 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 8.9
? Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.3, fifth-best
? 134 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.113 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,512 (71.6%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-best percentage

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M?s Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 18.3
? Average Running Position of 14.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 90.6, sixth-best
? 103 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.973 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,666 (66.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 199 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Eight top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 13.6
? Average Running Position of 10.4, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
? 311 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Series-high 396 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.183 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,049 (76.0%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 219 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Ford)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 7.4, third-best
? Driver Rating of 113.7, third-best
? 312 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.356 mph, third-fastest
? 3,471 (86.6%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 193 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? One win, 10 top fives, 14 tops 10s
? Average finish of 14.6
? Average Running Position of 17.3, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.8, ninth-best
? 87 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 292 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.881 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,112 (52.7%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
? 145 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Six top 10s
? Average finish of 18.0
? Average Running Position of 15.1, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, seventh-best
? 55 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.863 mph, eighth-fastest
? 2,407 (60.0%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 26 Crown Royal Ford)
? One top five, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 16.9
? Average Running Position of 14.8, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.2, eighth-best
? 72 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 11th-most
? 2,379 (59.3%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most

OTHER MARTINSVILLE HIGHLIGHTS
? Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville in 1949.
? Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven poles.
? 45 different drivers have won races, led by Richard Petty with 15.
? Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven victories.
? 17 races have been won from the pole, but none since Jeff Gordon swept both races from the pole in 2003.
? Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last five races at Martinsville. Johnson finished 35th in his first Martinsville appearance (April 2002), his only DNF there. Since then, he has posted 13 straight top-10 finishes. Johnson has finished fourth or better in his last seven Martinsville races. He has completed all but 54 laps in his 14 appearances at Martinsville, with all his incomplete laps coming in that first appearance.

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