RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

Martinsville Fantasy Forecast

Cup Corner – MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY
TUMs QuickPak 500, Sunday, October 19, 2008

This Sunday, Cup drivers head to Martinsville, Virginia, to a track with a 60-year history that exudes the very heart and soul of NASCAR. Martinsville Speedway represents everything NASCAR was and everything NASCAR is today. They started with 750 seats in 1947. Today there are 65,000 seats encircling a 12-degree, .526-mile paperclip-shaped oval. Its long straightaways and flat, narrow turns makes hard braking going into turns and smooth acceleration exiting turns a must.

Martinsville is tough – on car and driver. That will be evident once again on Sunday, as the track hosts the TUMS QuickPak 500. As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other short tracks such as Bristol and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in drivers’ practice and qualifying results from their last run at Martinsville.

TOP TWENTY
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 20 Tony Stewart
4) 11 Denny Hamlin
5) 31 Jeff Burton
6) 07 Clint Bowyer
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 99 Carl Edwards
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 12 Ryan Newman
12) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13) 16 Greg Biffle
14) 6 David Ragan
15) 9 Kasey Kahne
16) 26 Jamie McMurray
17) 8 Aric Almirola
18) 2 Kurt Busch
19) 5 Casey Mears
20) 43 Bobby Labonte

NASCAR Sprint Cup championship leader Jimmie Johnson has a near-flawless Martinsville record. Since his first race there in 2002 (a 35th-place finish), Johnson has finished in the top 10 in all 12 races – which includes four wins and nine top fives. Only one driver matches Johnson’s Martinsville prowess: Jeff Gordon. Gordon has finished in the top 10 in the last 11 races, and the top five in each of the last seven. He is also the active leader in Martinsville wins with seven.

Clearly, Hendrick Motorsports has figured out Martinsville Speedway. Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson rank one-two in Driver Rating over the last seven races at Martinsville, one of the trickiest tracks in the series. Over that span, Gordon has an average finish of 2.3, while Johnson has a 3.0.

SELECTED MARTINSVILLE DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Four wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.0
? Average Running Position of 7.1, second-best
? Driver Rating of 121.2, second-best
? 337 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.482 mph, second-fastest
? 3,075 (87.7%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 187 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 7.0
? Average Running Position of 7.2, second-best
? Series-high Driver Rating of 124.5
? Series-high 420 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-fastest average Green Flag Speed of 91.579 mph
? 3,041 (86.7%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 178 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.9
? Series-high Average Running Position of 6.7
? Driver Rating of 116.3, third-best
? 297 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.443 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 3,123 (89.1%) Laps in the Top 15
? 173 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 9.5
? Average Running Position of 12.5, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.6, fifth-best
? 129 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.157 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,044 (68.0%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best percentage

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
? One win, 10 top fives, 14 tops 10s
? Average finish of 14.5
? Average Running Position of 17.9, 14th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.3, 10th-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 247 Green Flag Passes, tied for ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.973 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,786 (50.9%) Laps in the Top 15, 11th-most
? 1202 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.8
? Average Running Position of 15.8, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.4, ninth-best
? 47 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.888 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,912 (54.5%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 16.7
? Average Running Position of 13.1, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.3, sixth-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 253 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? 2,568 (73.2%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 182 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 19.1 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 19.2, 19th-best
? Driver Rating of 72.4, 21st-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 14th-most
? 1,484 (42.3%) Laps in the Top 15, 14th-most
? 135 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Seven top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.3
? Average Running Position of 10.8, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.7, fourth-best
? 275 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Series-high 352 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 91.200 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,589 (73.8%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? Series-high 188 Quality Passes

OTHER MARTINSVILLE HIGHLIGHTS
? Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville in 1949.
? Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven poles.
? 45 different drivers have won races, led by Richard Petty with 15.
? Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven victories.
? 17 races have been won from the pole, but none since Jeff Gordon swept both races from the pole in 2003.

Share Button