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Lowe’s Fantasy Forecast

LOWE’S MOTOR SPEEDWAY
NASCAR Banking 500 only from Bank of America
Saturday, October 17, 2009 in Concord, NC

The 2009 edition of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup reaches its halfway point at Lowes Motor Speedway this Saturday night. The race features 334 laps of high-speed action on this 24 degree, 1.5-mile quad-oval. Many NASCAR drivers can call Lowe’s Motor Speedway their home track, as most teams house their base operations in the greater Charlotte area. So when the traveling bands of pit crews and race drivers return home, they hang their helmets in Charlotte.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other intermediate tracks, such as Texas and Atlanta, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Lowes.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 5 Mark Martin
4) 9 Kasey Kahne
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 14 Tony Stewart
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 16 Greg Biffle
10) 2 Kurt Busch
11) 11 Denny Hamlin
12) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
13) 00 David Reutimann
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16) 83 Brian Vickers
17) 39 Ryan Newman
18) 29 Kevin Harvick
19) 33 Clint Bowyer
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 96 Bobby Labonte
22) 26 Jamie McMurray
23) 07 Casey Mears
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 25 Brad Keselowski

Three-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson is so far ahead in my power rankings that the race may seem to be for second place. In fact, a mere 4 percentage points separate the likes of Edwards, Martin, Kahne, Gordon and Stewart, with Kenseth and Rowdy Busch close behind. Johnson has been brilliant at LMS, with five victories and a driver rating of 116.6, which leads all drivers. But, there’s hope for others as Johnson has gone winless there over the last three seasons.

Meanwhile, the much anticipated unveiling of the inaugural NASCAR Hall of Fame class will take place on Wednesday at the Charlotte Convention Center. A group of 25 legendary nominees will be pared down to five to make up the first year’s Hall of Fame slate. The class is chosen from the 51 votes cast by the voting panel and the nationwide fan vote conducted through NASCAR.COM. The accounting firm of Ernst & Young presides over the tabulation. The Class of 2010 will be officially inducted in a ceremony on May 23, 2010 at the NASCAR Hall of Fame in Charlotte.

This year’s nominees include: Bobby Allison; Buck Baker; Red Byron; Richard Childress; Dale Earnhardt; Richie Evans; Tim Flock; Bill France Jr.; Bill France Sr.; Rick Hendrick; Ned Jarrett; Junior Johnson; Bud Moore; Raymond Parks; Benny Parson; David Pearson; Lee Petty; Richard Petty; Fireball Roberts; Herb Thomas; Curtis Turner; Darrell Waltrip; Joe Weatherly; Glen Wood and Cale Yarborough.

SELECTED LOWE’S DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Five wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.1 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 7.0, second-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 116.6
? Series-high 292 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 176.165 mph
? Series-high 2,862 Laps in the Top 15 (90.3%)
? Series-high 456 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 10.0 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 15.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.7, seventh-best
? 62 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 634 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.807 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,741 Laps in the Top 15 (55.0%), eighth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 17 top fives, 22 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.9 in 49 races
? Average Running Position of 12.1, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.7, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.189 mph, sixth-fastest

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? Three wins, four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 12.4 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 12.0, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.5, fourth-best
? 255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 618 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.790 mph, 12th-fastest
? 1,988 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), fourth-most
? 356 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 15 top fives, 18 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 16.1 in 33 races
? Average Running Position of 18.5, 16th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.6, 10th-best
? 130 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.048 mph, eighth-fastest

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.3 in 21 races
? Average Running Position of 16.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.1, 12th-best
? 141 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 528 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.193 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,698 Laps in the Top 15 (53.6%), ninth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/Sherwin Williams Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.4 in 13 races
? Average Running Position of 16.5, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.8, eighth-best
? 111 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 1,960 Laps in the Top 15 (61.9%), fifth-most
? 277 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Three top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 21.6 in 18 races
? Average Running Position of 19.1, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 79.8, 15th-best
? 83 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 1,546 Laps in the Top 15 (48.8%), 13th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 15.6 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 15.4, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 80.4, 14th-best
? 1,746 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1%), seventh-most
? 260 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 27.4 in five races
? Average Running Position of 25.8, 37th-best
? Driver Rating of 58.0, 35th-best

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
? Two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 22.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 16.0, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.7, sixth-best
? 185 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 509 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.271 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,556 Laps in the Top 15 (55.0%), 12th-most
? 263 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, six top 10s; eight poles
? Average finish of 20.7 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 18.1, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 78.5, 17th-best

LOWE’S HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on June 19, 1960, won by Joe Lee Johnson.
? Ryan Newman leads all active drivers in poles, with eight.
? Jeff Gordon won five straight poles for the spring races between 1994 and 1998.
? 42 drivers have won races, led by Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip with six each. David Reutimann became a first-time series winner in May after winning the Coca-Cola 600.
? Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson lead all active drivers in victories, each with five.
? There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three in-a-row by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
? A sweep has occurred eight times, including each season from 2004-2007.
? 13 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson in the 2004 Coca-Cola 600.
? Jimmie Johnson is the only driver with more than one LMS race to average top 10 finishes (9.1). He comes just short of the all-time best average finish there, held by Rex White (9.0).
? A number of active drivers earned their first win at LMS: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears and David Reutimann.

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