RacingNation.com
Home / Cup Corner / Lowe’s Fantasy Forecast

Lowe’s Fantasy Forecast

LOWE’S MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Coca Cola 600
Sunday, May 24, 2009 in Concord, NC

The longest race of the Sprint Cup circuit is on tap this Sunday as drivers tempt to tame Lowe’s Motor Speedway in the annual Coca Cola 600. This Memorial Weekend tradition will feature 400 laps of high-speed action on this 24 degree, 1.5-mile quad-oval. They talk of Bristol being like a big fish bowl. Well Lowe’s Motor Speedway is like Bristol on steroids. The track is sunk deep, and the stands that encircle the track from turn four to the middle of the backstretch afford spectacular views of the racing action, even from row one.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other intermediate tracks, such as Texas, Atlanta and Las Vegas, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Lowes.

TOP TWENTYFIVE

1) 48 Jimmie Johnson

2) 14 Tony Stewart

3) 31 Jeff Burton

4) 18 Kyle Busch

5) 99 Carl Edwards

6) 24 Jeff Gordon

7) 16 Greg Biffle

8) 17 Matt Kenseth

9) 5 Mark Martin

10) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

11) 2 Kurt Busch

12) 9 Kasey Kahne

13) 39 Ryan Newman

14) 11 Denny Hamlin

15) 83 Brian Vickers

16) 26 Jamie McMurray

17) 1 Martin Truex Jr.

18) 29 Kevin Harvick

19) 33 Clint Bowyer

20) 96 Bobby Labonte

21) 07 Casey Mears

22) 6 David Ragan

23) 00 David Reutimann

24) 20 Joey Logano

25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

For the fourth week this season, the top four drivers in the NASCAR Sprint cup Series points standings are all past champions. Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 is important for all four – for different reasons:

Jeff Gordon: With a win, Gordon would tie Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip for victories at Lowe’s Motor Speedway with six. He also would close the increasingly important Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup bonus points gap. With each win in the 26-race “regular season,” a driver earns 10 bonus points toward his Chase seeding. Gordon, with one win, has 10 bonus points. Kyle Busch, with three wins, leads with 30.

Tony Stewart: With a win, Stewart would A) Become the seventh driver to follow up a NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race win with a 600 win; B) Become the first driver-owner to win a points race since Ricky Rudd at Martinsville in 1998; C) Likely become the first driver-owner to lead the points since Alan Kulwicki in 1992; and D) Likely lead the points for the first time since Nov. 20, 2005. Stewart is 29 points behind series leader Gordon. A win would likely give him the points lead.

Kurt Busch: This is an important juncture for Busch. He is heading into a three-track stretch – LMS, Dover and Michigan – where he has average finishes of 20.8, 21.4 and 20.1, respectively. Currently, he is a comfortable 282 points inside the Chase cutoff, but three bad finishes can erase that cushion.

Jimmie Johnson: Like Gordon, Johnson can also tie Allison and Waltrip with six LMS wins. Johnson has not won a points race at LMS since 2005, which must seem like an eternity for the Lowe’s-sponsored driver. He won there five times in six races from 2003-05.

SELECTED LOWE’S DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Five wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 8.9
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.2
? Series-best Driver Rating of 117.1
? Series-high 279 Fastest Laps Run
? 540 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 176.608 mph
? Series-high 2,640 Laps in the Top 15 (89.8%)
? Series-high 425 Quality Passes

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 17.0, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.0, 11th-best
? 135 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 476 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.573 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,531 Laps in the Top 15 (52.1%), eighth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 13.8, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.8, fifth-best
? 1,865 Laps in the Top 15 (63.4%), fourth-most
? 313 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 21.4
? Average Running Position of 12.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 100.4, second-best
? 183 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 495 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 176.233 mph, second-fastest
? 2,210 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%), third-most
? 400 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 16.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.0, seventh-best
? 61 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? Series-high 604 Green Flag Passes
? 1,518 Laps in the Top 15 (51.6%), 10th-most
? 271 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 15 top fives, 18 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 16.1
? Driver Rating of 85.9, 10th-best
? 122 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.464 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,416 Laps in the Top 15 (48.1%), 12th-most
? 234 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.3
? Average Running Position of 16.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 90.3, sixth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.647 mph, third-fastest
? 1,824 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Cheez-It/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 17 top fives, 22 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.9
? Average Running Position of 11.9, second-best
? Driver Rating of 92.1, fourth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.539 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,255 Laps in the Top 15 (76.7%), second-most
? 308 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.3
? Average Running Position of 17.7, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.6, eighth-best
? 111 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 508 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.566 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,597 Laps in the Top 15 (54.3%), seventh-most
? 272 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
? Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9
? Average Running Position of 12.9, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
? 238 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 591 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.041 mph, 12th-fastest
? 1,763 Laps in the Top 15 (59.9%), sixth-most
? 329 Quality Passes, third-most

LOWE’S HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on June 19, 1960.
? There have been 98 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, two races per year since the track opened in 1960. In 1961, there were two 100-mile qualifying point races held the week before the World 600. The first six fall races at Charlotte were 400-mile events (1960-65).
? Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers in poles, with seven.
? Jeff Gordon won five straight poles for the spring race between 1994 and 1998.
? Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson lead all active drivers in victories, each with five.
? There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three in a row by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
? A sweep has occurred eight times, including each season from 2004-2007.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won 14 races, more than any other organization.
? 13 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson in the 2004 Coca-Cola 600.
? The last three races have been won from a top-five starting position.

Share Button