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Las Vegas Fantasy Forecast

LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Shelby 427 ? Sunday, March 1, 2009 in Las Vegas, NV

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to the Diamond in the Desert this weekend for the running of the Shelby 427 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Since its inception in 1998, the Sprint Cup race at LVMS has been run at a length of 400.5 miles, which is 267 laps around the 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval. In order to accommodate the new event name, the race will be increased by 27 miles and will feature 285 laps. The track was reconfigured in 2006 to 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns to allow for more competitive side-by-side racing.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar intermediate tracks, factoring in practice & qualifying results from their last visit to Vegas, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last two weeks of racing at Daytona and California.

TOP TWENTY
1) 17 Matt Kenseth
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 16 Greg Biffle
6) 48 Jimmie Johnson
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 5 Mark Martin
10) 11 Denny Hamlin
11) 9 Kasey Kahne
12) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
13) 44 A.J. Allmendinger
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 6 David Ragan
17) 19 Elliott Sadler
18) 2 Kurt Busch
19) 07 Casey Mears
20) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

In winning the first two races of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season, Matt Kenseth joined an exclusive list. Previously, a driver had opened with two consecutive wins only four times, most recently in 1997 when Jeff Gordon won the Daytona 500 and followed it up with a victory at Rockingham.

No driver has started a season with three straight victories. Marvin Panch came close. He opened the 1957 season with two consecutive wins, but finished third in race No. 3 at Titusville-Cocoa (Fla.) Speedway. Bob Welborn began the 1959 season with two wins and finished 41st in the third race ? which happened to be the inaugural Daytona 500. In 1976, David Pearson opened the season with back-to-back wins, but finished 29th in the third race, held at Rockingham. And, in 1997, Gordon finished fourth in race No. 3, at Richmond. Among the previous four, only Gordon won the championship in the season that he opened with two consecutive wins.

Kenseth has a serious chance to become the first driver ever to open a season with three consecutive wins. He already has two wins at Las Vegas (2003-2004) and has led 438 laps there, more than any other driver. After going all of 2008 without a win, the No. 17 team has turned it around by adding crew chief Drew Blickensderfer. ?I just feel great about the group we have assembled,? said Kenseth. ?Everybody’s having fun. Everybody’s loose. Everybody’s performing at the same time. I think that, Drew has given the leadership and the spark they (the team) kind of needs.?

SELECTED LAS VEGAS DRIVER STATS
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 9.0
? Average Running Position of 10.8, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 107.8, fourth-best
? 90 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.605 mph, third-best
? 745 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6%), seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, two top 10s
? Average finish of 11.8
? Average Running Position of 15.4, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.3, ninth-best
? 65 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Series-high 283 Green Flag Passes
? 111 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives
? Average finish of 14.9
? Average Running Position of 7.4, second-best
? Driver Rating of 111.4, second-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 252 Green Flag Passes, tied for fourth-most
? Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 165.015 mph
? Series-high 1,001 Laps in the Top 15 (93.5%)
? Series-high 186 Quality Passes

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M?s Toyota)
? Two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.2
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.8
? Driver Rating of 109.8, third-best
? 64 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.674 mph, second-fastest
? 997 Laps in the Top 15 (93.1%), second-most
? 174 Quality Passes, second-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One top five, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.6
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.2, fifth-best
? 48 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.480 mph, sixth-fastest
? 795 Laps in the Top 15 (74.2%), fourth-most
? 100 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, four top 10s
? Average finish of 9.3
? Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 112.0
? Series-high 149 Fastest Laps Run
? 233 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.583 mph, fourth-fastest
? 752 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), sixth-most
? 148 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
? 44 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 255 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 164.551 mph, fifth-fastest
? 723 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), eighth-most
? 155 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg?s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.8, sixth-best
? 36 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 780 Laps in the Top 15 (72.8%), fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 10.5
? Average Running Position of 10.5, third-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, seventh-best
? 268 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? 866 Laps in the Top 15 (80.9%), third-most
? 171 Quality Passes, third-most

OTHER LAS VEGAS HIGHLIGHTS
? There have been 11 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
? Five drivers have participated in all 11 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
? Eight drivers have poles, led by Dale Jarrett, Kasey Kahne and Bobby Labonte (two each).
? Seven different drivers have won, led by Jimmie Johnson (three).
? Only four of the 11 races have been won from a top-10 starting position and none have been won from the pole.
? Four of the 11 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.
? The deepest in the field that a race winner has started was 25th, by Matt Kenseth in 2004.
? Matt Kenseth has a 9.0 average finish in nine Las Vegas races, the best of any driver with more than three starts. He has been running at the finish in all nine of those races and has finished on the lead lap in eight. Kenseth has also led 438 laps at Las Vegas ? 179 more than any other driver.
? Roush Fenway Racing had five drivers finish in the top 10 in the inaugural Las Vegas 400 in 1998. In five of the 11 races, the winner at Las Vegas was driving for Roush at the time: Mark Martin (1998), Jeff Burton (1999 and 2000) and Matt Kenseth (2003 and 2004).

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