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Las Vegas Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Kobalt Tools 400
THE PLACE: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, March 6, 2011 – 3:14 pm EST, 2:14 CST

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to the Diamond in the Desert this weekend for the running of the Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Since its reconfiguration in 2006, this 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval features 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns to allow for more competitive side-by-side racing.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 29 Kevin Harvick
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 4 Kasey Kahne
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 33 Clint Bowyer
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 11 Denny Hamlin
14) 39 Ryan Newman
15) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
17) 22 Kurt Busch
18) 1 Jamie McMurray
19) 00 David Reutimann
20) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

21) 27 Paul Menard
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 6 David Ragan
24) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

25) 47 Bobby Labonte

LAS VEGAS DRIVER STATS
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One top five, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.9
• Average Running Position of 9.8, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.8, fourth-best
• 97 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 326 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.867 mph, third-fastest
• 1,280 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), fourth-most
• 185 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 9.9
• Average Running Position of 10.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.7, fifth-best
• 44 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 379 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.427 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,293 Laps in the Top 15 (79.7%), third-most
• 250 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One top five, two top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 21.9
• Average Running Position of 15.5, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.7, 11th-best

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 7.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 108.0, third-best
• 73 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 330 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.687 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,442 Laps in the Top 15 (88.8%), second-most
• 246 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
• One win, one top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 12.7
• Average Running Position of 13.4, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.2, 10th-best
• 101 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Series-high 411 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.207 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,029 Laps in the Top 15 (63.4%), ninth-most
• 219 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 13.3
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
• Series-best Driver Rating of 117.0
• 176 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 337 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 168.307 mph
• Series-high 1,527 Laps in the Top 15 (94.1%)
• Series-high 254 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 12.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.7, ninth-best
• 37 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 338 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.261 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,067 Laps in the Top 15 (65.7%), eighth-most
• 157 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Four wins, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 10.0
• Average Running Position of 9.6, third-best
• Driver Rating of 116.4, second-best
• Series-high 235 Fastest Laps Run
• 344 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.082 mph, second-fastest
• 1,240 Laps in the Top 15 (76.4%), fifth-most
• 232 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 15.0
• Average Running Position of 16.4, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 80.9, 13th-best
• 32 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 334 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• 899 Laps in the Top 15 (55.4%), 13th-most
• 148 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 15.6, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 95.6, eighth-best
• 120 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.863 mph, fourth-fastest
• 979 Laps in the Top 15 (60.3%), 10th-most
• 161 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Joey Logano (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 84.0, 12th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 166.719 mph, 12th-fastest

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 14.0, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 95.9, seventh-best
• 39 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.463 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,138 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), seventh-most
• 165 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 13.0, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 96.0, sixth-best
• 62 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 341 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.729 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,191 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4%), sixth-most
• 231 Quality Passes, fifth-most

LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Eight different drivers have won at Las Vegas, led by Jimmie Johnson (four). Johnson has won four of the last six races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, including last season’s event.
• Only five of the 13 races have been won from a top-10 starting position.
• Las Vegas-native Kyle Busch became the first driver to win from the pole, in 2009.
• Five of the 13 races have been won from a starting position of 20th or worse.
• The deepest in the field that a race winner has started was 25th, by Matt Kenseth in 2004.
• There has been one green-white-checkered finish at Las Vegas: 2006 (270/267).
• Jeff Burton won consecutive races in 1999 and 2000, and has finished in the top five in two of the last three races (fifth in 2008, third in 2009). Burton has been running at the finish in all 13 of his events.
• In three of the last five races, the margin of victory was under one second.

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