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Las Vegas Fantasy Forecast

LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Shelby American
Sunday, February 28, 2010 in Las Vegas, NV

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to the Diamond in the Desert this weekend for the running of the Shelby American at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Since its reconfiguration in 2006, this 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval features 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns to allow for more competitive side-by-side racing.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 5 Mark Martin
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 16 Greg Biffle
6) 29 Kevin Harvick
7) 31 Jeff Burton
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 11 Denny Hamlin
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 00 David Reutimann
12) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13) 9 Kasey Kahne
14) 14 Tony Stewart
15) 2 Kurt Busch
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
17) 17 Matt Kenseth
18) 1 Jamie McMurray
19) 83 Brian Vickers
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
21) 71 Bobby Labonte
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 39 Ryan Newman
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

SELECTED LAS VEGAS DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 10.5, fifth-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 113.6
? Series-high 190 Fastest Laps Run
? 289 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.760 mph, second-fastest
? 989 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), fifth-most
? 186 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 14.2
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.4
? Driver Rating of 111.5, second-best
? 103 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 308 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 166.973 mph
? Series-high 1,260 Laps in the Top 15 (92.9%)
? Series-high 225 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 13.5
? Average Running Position of 14.8, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.9, sixth-best
? 37 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.236 mph, seventh-fastest
? 899 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3%), eighth-most
? 126 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, one top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 14.1, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.3, eighth-best
? 95 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-high 358 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 165.938 mph, 11th-fastest
? 771 Laps in the Top 15 (56.9%), 11th-most
? 177 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One top five, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 10.0, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.9, fourth-best
? 89 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 262 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.673 mph, third
? 1,038 Laps in the Top 15 (76.5%), fourth-most
? 141 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.0
? Average Running Position of 13.2, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.2, ninth-best
? 278 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 165.949 mph, 10th-fastest
? 900 Laps in the Top 15 (66.4%), seventh-most
? 132 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 9.8
? Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.5, fifth-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 312 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.186 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,109 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%), third-most
? 203 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 11.2
? Average Running Position of 7.8, second-best
? Driver Rating of 109.4, third-best
? 68 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 295 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.493 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,193 Laps in the Top 15 (88.0%), second-most
? 212 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 11.0
? Average Running Position of 15.9, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 81.7, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 165.565 mph, 13th-fastest
? 131 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.8
? Driver Rating of 80.3, 13th-best
? 39 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 277 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.002 mph, ninth-fastest
? 126 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.5
? Average Running Position of 14.2, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.5, seventh-best
? 49 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 298 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.487 mph, sixth-fastest
? 924 Laps in the Top 15 (68.1%), sixth-most
? 188 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 20.4
? Average Running Position of 13.7, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 165.661 mph, 12th
? 773 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), 10th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.4
? Driver Rating of 91.6, 10th-best
? 90 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 166.515 mph, fourth-fastest
? 745 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9%), 12th-most

OTHER LAS VEGAS HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on March 1, 1998, won by Mark Martin.
? In 2006, the track was reconfigured to include progressive banking.
? Eight drivers have poles, led by Dale Jarrett, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch and Bobby Labonte (two each).
? Eight different drivers have won, led by Jimmie Johnson (three).
? Only five of the 12 races have been won from a top-10 starting position.
? Las Vegas-native Kyle Busch became the first driver to win from the pole, last season.
? Four of the 12 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.
? Only one driver averages a top-10 finish: Jeff Burton (9.8). Burton won consecutive races in 1999 and 2000, and has finished in the top five in the last two races (fifth in 2008, third in 2009). Burton has been running at the finish in all 12 of his events.
? In three of the last four races, the margin of victory was under one second.

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