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Kansas Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Hollywood Casino 400
THE PLACE: Kansas Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, October 9, 2011 – 2:16pm/et, 1:16pm/ct

The Hollywood Casino 400 is on tap this weekend at Kansas Speedway. This track joined the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule in 2001, virtually tying it with Chicagoland Speedway as the youngest track on the circuit. Cup drivers will make their second appearance of the year there this Sunday, circling the 15-degree, 1.5-mile, cookie cutter tri-oval 267 times.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 14 Tony Stewart
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson
5) 29 Kevin Harvick
6) 22 Kurt Busch
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 2 Brad Keselowski
10) 18 Kyle Busch
11) 11 Denny Hamlin
12) 6 David Ragan
13) 4 Kasey Kahne
14) 39 Ryan Newman
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 31 Jeff Burton
18) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

19) 83 Brian Vickers
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 33 Clint Bowyer
22) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 27 Paul Menard
25) 20 Joey Logano

KANSAS DRIVER STATS
1 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.4, ninth-best
• 64 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 492 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.424 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,073 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), eighth-most
• 197 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

2 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.4 in eight races
• Average Running Position of 12.1, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.7, fifth-best
• 111 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 443 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.734 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,300 Laps in the Top 15 (71.7%), sixth-most
• 265 Quality Passes, fifth-most

3 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 11.9 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 9.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 105.3, fourth-best
• 127 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.950 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,483 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%), fourth-most

4 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Three top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 18.1 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 15.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.8, eighth-best
• 106 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.474 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,027 Laps in the Top 15 (56.7%), 10th-most

5 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 9.1 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 7.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 116.5, second-best
• Series-high 227 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-high 526 Green Flag Passes
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 162.457 mph
• 1,612 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%), third-most
• Series-high 333 Quality Passes

6 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One win, one top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 12.3 in three races
• Average Running Position of 15.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.8, 12th-best

7 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 19.3 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 12.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
• 98 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.514 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,319 Laps in the Top 15 (72.8%), fifth-most
• 221 Quality Passes, eighth-most

8 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&Ms Toyota)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 22.4 in eight races
• Average Running Position of 18.6, 16th-best
• Driver Rating of 79.5, 16th-best
• 52 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 483 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 915 Laps in the Top 15 (50.5%), 12th-most
• 236 Quality Passes, seventh-most

9 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Two wins, eight top fives, nine top 10s

• Average finish of 8.1 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 8.5, third-best
• Driver Rating of 107.3, third-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.187 mph, third-fastest
• 1,645 Laps in the Top 15 (90.8%), second-most
• 284 Quality Passes, third-most

10 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One top five, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.5 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 18.7, 17th-best
• Driver Rating of 83.2, 13th-best
• 61 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 491 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.238 mph, 13th-fastest
• 199 Quality Passes, ninth-most

11 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 17.3 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 23.3, 27th-best
• Driver Rating of 63.4, 27th-best
• 508 Green Flag Passes, second-most

12 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
• Two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 15.7 in seven races
• Average Running Position of 16.4, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.2, 11th-best
• 44 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 473 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.454 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,060 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5%), ninth-most
• 240 Quality Passes, sixth-most

KANSAS SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• The track opened in 2001, and Jeff Gordon won the first two NASCAR Sprint Cup races.
• Eight different drivers have won poles, led by Jimmie Johnson with three.
• Eight different drivers have posted victories, led by Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart (each with two).
• Seven of the 11 races have been won from a top-10 starting position.
• Two drivers have won from the pole: Joe Nemechek in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson in 2008.
• The furthest back in the field that a race winner started was 25th, by Brad Keselowski earlier this season.
• Three active drivers with more than one start have averaged a top-10 finish: Greg Biffle (8.3), Jeff Gordon (8.1) and Jimmie Johnson (9.1).
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in top fives (eight) and top 10s (nine). Gordon’s only two non-top 10s were a 39th in 2006 and a 13th in 2004.
• Seven of the 11 races that ended under green had a margin of victory under one second.

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