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Infineon Fantasy Forecast

INFINEON RACEWAY – Toyota/Save Mart 350, Sunday June 22, 2008

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make the long cross-country haul out to Infineon Raceway in the beautiful Sonoma Valley in California this weekend for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350. This 1.99-mile road course snakes up and down hills, and features the Chute, a NASCAR modified bypass for turns 5 and 6 that changes it from a 12-turn to a 10-turn track. Drivers will encircle the course 110 times for 350 kilometers en route to the finish line.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at the two road courses, Infineon and Watkins Glen, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 20 Tony Stewart
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 83 Brian Vickers
9) 60 Boris Said
10) 18 Kyle Busch
11) 12 Ryan Newman
12) 7 Robby Gordon
13) 19 Elliott Sadler
14) 31 Jeff Burton
15) 2 Kurt Busch
16) 26 Jamie McMurray
17) 29 Kevin Harvick
18) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
19) 41 Scott Pruett
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
22) 01 Ron Fellows
23) 84 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 34 Brian Simo
25) 07 Clint Bowyer

Lots of expectations were heaped onto Juan Pablo Montoya prior to last season’s race at Infineon Raceway. He had a reputation as a strong road course driver, and already had won a NASCAR road course race – the NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Mexico City. The pressure was on to win at Infineon Raceway.

Montoya didn’t disappoint. But if Montoya wants to repeat, he’ll have to contend with three of the series’ best road-course drivers – Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Robby Gordon. Jeff Gordon, who has five wins at Infineon Raceway, may have had one of his more impressive Infineon Raceway performances last season – in a loss. He started 41st and finished seventh, an improbable result, especially at a road course. Stewart won there in 2005 and owns some pretty impressive road course stats himself. And don’t count out Robby Gordon, who has posted one win, two top fives, three top 10s at Infineon.

A “road course ringer” hasn’t won a road course race in over 30 years. The last was Mark Donohue at Riverside International Raceway in 1973. But that isn’t stopping six drivers this weekend from trying. There isn’t another “road-course specialist” whose likeness is more famous than Boris Said’s. His six-foot, four-inch frame and unique hairstyle can be seen from across the garage. And he has been able to contend with NASCAR’s best at Infineon Raceway. Said has made eight starts at Infineon and has posted four top 10s and one pole (2003).

Then there’s Australian born driver Marcos Ambrose (No. 21 Little Debbie Ford), who will make his Sprint Cup series debut this weekend driving for Wood Brothers Racing. Ambrose competed in the NASCAR Nationwide Series, where he posted two top-five and nine top-10 finishes and one pole in 51 starts. He also started 22 NASCAR Craftsman Truck races with two top-five and four top-10 finishes and one pole. Other “Road Warriors” to watch this weekend include Brandon Ash, Ron Fellows, Terry Labonte, Max Papis, Scott Pruett, Boris Said, and Brian Simo.

SELECTED INFINEON DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.0
? Average Running Position of 8.8, second-best
? Driver Rating of 113.9, second-best
? Series-high 55 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 90.657 mph
? 265 (80.3%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? Series-high 112 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 9.7
? Average Running Position of 13.7, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.1, sixth-best
? 35 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 148 Green Flag Passes, tied for 10th-most
? 196 (59.4%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
? 78 Quality Passes, tied for third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two top fives
? Average finish of 14.6
? Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, eighth-best
? Seven Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 211 (63.9%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 78 Quality Passes, tied for third-most

Boris Said (No. 60 Slurpee/No Fear Energy Ford)
? Four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.6
? Average Running Position of 9.1, third-best
? Driver Rating of 103.9, fifth-best
? Nine Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.322 mph, third-fastest
? 291 (88.2%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 74 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 9.8
? Average Running Position of 9.2, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.3, fourth-best
? Eight Fastest Laps Run, tied for ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.258 mph, fourth-fastest
? 279 (84.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 61 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Robby Gordon (No. 7 TBD Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 20.7
? Driver Rating of 91.9, ninth-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
? 146 Green Flag Passes, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.208 mph, sixth-fastest
? 167 (50.6%) Laps in the Top 15, 11th-best

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 19.4
? Average Running Position of 10.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.6, seventh-best
? 292 (88.5%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 84 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Three top fives
? Average finish of 17.3
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.1
? Driver Rating of 109.3, third-best
? 13 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.375 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 298 (90.3%) Laps in the Top 15
? 71 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Texaco/Havoline Dodge)
? One win
? Average finish of 1.0
? Average Running Position of 11.4, sixth-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 115.3
? Average Green Flag Speed of 90.252 mph, fifth-best
? 70.0% (77 total) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-best percentage
? 26 Quality Passes (average of 26.0 per race), tied for fourth-best average

INFINEON HIGHLIGHTS
? The track opened as a 2.52-mile road course and drag strip in 1968.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held in 1989.
? The track was re-configured to 1.949 miles in 1998 with the installation of an 890-foot chute between the original turns 4 and 7.
? The track was reconfigured to 2.0 miles in 2001 and re-measured at 1.99 miles in 2002.
? Ricky Rudd won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
? Jeff Gordon (five) leads all pole winners. Ricky Rudd has four, including three consecutive (1990-92) and Rusty Wallace has two.
? 11 different drivers have won races; five have more than one victory there – led by Jeff Gordon with five. Ernie Irvan, Ricky Rudd, Tony Stewart and Rusty Wallace (all with two) are the other multiple-race winners.
? Five of 19 races have been won by the pole winner, including three times by Jeff Gordon. His victory from the pole in 2004 is the most recent.
? Last season’s race was won from 32nd starting position by Juan Pablo Montoya – the deepest in the field that a race winner ever started at Infineon.

ROAD COURSE RINGERS
? Marcos Ambrose (No. 21 Little Debbie Honey Buns Ford)
? Brandon Ash (No. 02 Sprinter Trucking Dodge)
? Ron Fellows (No. 01 Principal Financial Group/DEI Chevrolet)
? Terry Labonte (No. 45 Wells Fargo Dodge) subbing for Kyle Petty
? Max Papis (No. 66 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
? Scott Pruett (No. 41 Target Dodge) subbing for Reed Sorenson
? Boris Said (No. 60 7-Eleven Slurpee/No Fear Energy Ford)
? Brian Simo (No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Chevrolet)

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