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How Are Those Pre-Season Predictions Turning Out

After only four of thirty-six NASCAR Sprint Cup races have been run, we could say that it is way too early to examine pre-season thoughts. The top-guns of NASCAR haven’t even hit the short tracks yet. But really, there is no reason why we shouldn’t take a look at our pre-season predictions to see how things are going.

Checking back, twelve of the drivers we selected to finish the season in the top fifteen are currently in that range of the standings. Not bad. Four of those drivers are within three spots of where we picked them to finish. Not great. Three drivers are ten or more positions away from where we think they will end up with one, Mark Martin, off by twenty-four. Oops. Hey it’s early, right?

Let’s take a look at the picks in order of how we still think they will end up (get ready for some excuses):
15th – Tony Stewart (currently 6th) – Stewart has exceeded the expectations of many. While some thought he would fall flat on his face as an owner, he has shined. Now if only he could get his teammate, Ryan Newman, to close the gap between the two of them. Time still will tell if the pressure will get to him. A Chase berth looks highly likely at this point.

14th – Brian Vickers (currently 11th) – One pole position and three top ten finishes in a row has Vickers looking good right now. A scare of engine issues at California looks like they have been resolved quickly by team Toyota. Good finishes at the next two short track races will go a long way towards Vickers run to the Chase.

13th – Clint Bowyer (currently 2nd) – Clearly a surprise to our group, the fact that Bowyer is up in second is a bit of a surprise after the California race. Both Bowyer and teammate Jeff Burton looked lost on the two mile oval. A huge rebound at the cookie cutter has Bowyer looking like a contender at this point. Add the fact that this is being done with a brand new team and the story is that much better. Speaking of stories, what is Casey Mears doing with Bowyer’s old team? Not much. If he keeps it up, this may be Mears last ride in the Cup Series.

12th – David Ragan (currently 22nd) – All the excitement and promise that is David Ragan hasn’t come to fruition yet. Atlanta seemed to be the track where he might break out, but it was not to be. Engine issues have been a factor and they should be in the past. One of our fearless predictors said that Ragan’s first win will come at the summer Daytona race, so there still is time. A Nationwide series race win in the meantime wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

11th – Kevin Harvick (currently 8th) – Pretty much where we thought Harvick would be, in the middle of the Chase. There have been some signs so far that he could be challenging for wins, we’ll wait and see.

10th – Mark Martin (currently 34th) – What happened here? Two races lost to engine issues and then a tire issue has derailed Martins season. Even though it is early, top five finishes are needed immediately or the season will be lost.

9th – Jeff Burton (currently 15th) – Burton has made a bit of a comeback from the previously mentioned horrible run at California. There still seems to be something missing with this team. Having a good couple short track runs should put Burton back into the top 10 in points.

8th – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (currently 24th) – Lack of focus and those dreaded engine issues have put Junior in a hole to start of 2009. “I was having fun”, his answer for missing his pit during a caution in the Daytona 500, will not cut it. If he doesn’t get his act together, there will be no room for him in the Chase. A tenth and eleventh place finish in his last two races are progress, but more is needed.

7th – Matt Kenseth (currently 5th) – There is nothing better than like starting off the season with two wins. There is nothing worse than finishing last in the next race. Kenseth’s blown engine at Las Vegas will be a distant memory as he is on a Championship run this year.

6th – Denny Hamlin (currently 14th) – Hamlin will make his way back into the top twelve, but the fire just doesn’t seem to be there. We are still waiting for that guy that Hamlin was in his rookie year to return.

5th – Jeff Gordon (currently 1st) – Gordon is on the top of the standings right now. “Jeff Gordon doesn’t scare anybody anymore”, one of our predictors stated. I guess that is because he is running away from them. Gordon looks to be back this year and more focused than ever. That can only spell trouble for the rest of the field and our predictor.

4th – Greg Biffle (currently 10th) – Atlanta turned into a nightmare for Biffle. His top ten finishes in the two prior races were smashed with a 34th place result at Atlanta. Put Atlanta aside and assume that the Roush-Fenway engine woes are a thing of the past and Biffle will be back up at the top of the standings soon.

3rd – Kyle Busch (currently 7th) – Kyle Busch is returning to his early season form of 2008. Look for a repeat of last year with lots of wins in the books by the time the Chase rolls around. Kyle doesn’t like to lose and firmly believes that second place is the first loser. What could really be fun is to see the Busch brothers battle for the Championship, it may be the spark that NASCAR needs.

2nd – Jimmie Johnson (currently 13th) – Where is Jimmy? Anyone who is worried about this guy should have their heads examined. There is plenty of time to get in the Chase, he is only eighteen points out of the top twelve right now. There is plenty of time for wins. That is all that matters, get in the top twelve and have some bonus point wins in your pocket. Johnson, Chad Knaus and the 48 team will the rest of the field right where they want them when the Chase starts.

1st – Carl Edwards (currently 4th) – In prior years, one would have expected Edwards to win by now. Maybe they are taking a page from the book belonging to the #48 team. Maybe those engine issues had the 99 team running conservative. Make no mistake, wins will be coming soon.

Who we are missing:
Kurt Busch (currently 3rd) – A big surprise that Penske is running so well this year. There was a hint at the end of last year that Kurt Busch was going to improve, but it was a “I believe it when I see it” thought that popped into our minds when we considered Busch for our top fifteen. Well, he is showing us. He probably won’t stop proving us wrong this year either.

Kasey Kahne (currently 9th) – Another driver that we wanted to prove himself, Kahne is starting off the year well. Could it be that Dodge is making a resurgence? Still in our mind is the fact that Kahne won three races in the middle of 2008 and then fell off the map.

David Reutimann (currently 12th) – Sorry Reutimann fans, we don’t expect him to stay where he is in the points for too much longer. The Chase needs his spot to be filled by someone with a name like Johnson, Hamlin, Burton, maybe even someone named Dale. It still will be a good season for Reutimann, probably finishing somewhere near 15th. He just needs to get a ride with a better team.

Yes, it is early but the Chase can sneak up if a team falls too soon. Looking at the way the points are right now, one would have to say that there are at least sixteen teams with a shot at the Chase. And, we haven’t even mentioned drivers that could go on a run to put themselves in contention. Consider Martin Truex, Jr., Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya as possible surprise guests to the party.
We’ll have to see where we are at four more races down the road.

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