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Homestead-Miami Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Ford 400
THE PLACE: Homestead-Miami Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, November 20, 2011 – 3:16pm/et, 2:16pm/ct

The 2011 Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned this weekend following Sunday’s running of the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Drivers will make 267 laps around this variable banked, 1.5-mile oval. This is a very fast, very competitive, 3-groove speedway. The progressively banked turns have 18 degrees of banking in the low groove, 19 in the middle, and 20 degrees up top. With only 3 points separating Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart in the standings, it’s shaping up to be a thrilling finale.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 4 Kasey Kahne
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 18 Kyle Busch
10) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
11) 22 Kurt Busch
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
14) 24 Jeff Gordon
15) 16 Greg Biffle
16) 31 Jeff Burton
17) 9 Marcos Ambrose
18) 2 Brad Keselowski
19) 00 David Reutimann
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
21) 5 Mark Martin
22) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
23) 27 Paul Menard
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 1 Jamie McMurray

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI DRIVER STATS
1 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 5.7 in seven races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.7
• Series-best Driver Rating of 117.5
• Series-high 173 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 162.956 mph
• Series-high 1,379 Laps in the Top 15 (86.0%)
• 236 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

2 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 12.4 in 12 races
• Average Running Position of 14.6, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.6, 11th-best
• 60 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 415 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.140 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,037 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), seventh-most
• 235 Quality Passes, eighth-most

3 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 7.9 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 9.8, third-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, fourth-best
• 62 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.554 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,264 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), second-most
• 243 Quality Passes, fifth-most

4 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Average finish of 20.3 in three races
• Average Running Position of 25.2, 31st-best
• Driver Rating of 59.8, 31st-best

5 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 11.6 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 12.6, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.4, fifth-best
• 375 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.431 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,221 Laps in the Top 15 (76.2%), fourth-most
• 248 Quality Passes, third-most

6 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• One win, two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 18.8 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 10.2, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 105.7, third-best
• 74 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.560 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,228 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6%), third-most
• 216 Quality Passes, 11th-most

7 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• Average finish of 24.2 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 23.4, 29th-best
• Driver Rating of 64.1, 28th-best
• 83 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 508 Green Flag Passes, second-most

8 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, four top fives, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 19.4 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 23.4, 28th-best
• Driver Rating of 74.8, 21st-best
• 76 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.039 mph, 12th-fastest

9 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• Three top 10s
• Average finish of 19.1 in nine races
• Average Running Position of 14.8, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 82.2, 16th-best
• 373 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• 217 Quality Passes, 10th-most

10 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 11.2 in six races
• Average Running Position of 14.8, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 92.5, seventh-best
• 63 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Series-high 516 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.237 mph, eighth-fastest
• 915 Laps in the Top 15 (57.1%), 10th-most
• 232 Quality Passes, ninth-most

11 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 11.8 in 12 races
• Average Running Position of 15.3, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• 54 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 393 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 977 Laps in the Top 15 (60.9%), eighth-most
• 258 Quality Passes, second-most

12 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 26.3 in six races
• Average Running Position of 18.8, 20th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.5, 15th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.101 mph, 11th-fastest
• 200 Quality Passes, 13th-most

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI HIGHLIGHTS
• Tony Stewart won the inaugural race, in 1999.
• Since the inception of the position-based points system in 1975, only three drivers have made up a points deficit in the season finale: Richard Petty in 1979 (made up two points on Darrell Waltrip), Alan Kulwicki in 1992 (made up 30 points on Davey Allison) and Jimmie Johnson in 2010 (made up 15 points on Denny Hamlin).
• There have been nine different pole winners. Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson lead all drivers, with two.
• There have been eight different race winners, led by Greg Biffle, with three.
• Jack Roush has won seven races, most among owners.
• The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in nine of 12 races.
• Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (5.7), Kevin Harvick (7.9) and A.J. Allmendinger (8.7).

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