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Homestead-Miami Fantasy Forecast

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY
FORD 400
Sunday, November 21, 2010 in Homestead, FL

The 2010 Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned this weekend following Sunday’s running of the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Drivers will make 267 laps around this variable banked, 1.5 mile oval. This is a very fast, very competitive, 3-groove speedway. The progressively banked turns have 18 degrees of banking in the low groove, 19 in the middle, and 20 degrees up top. With only 46 points separating the top three in the standings, it’s shaping up to be a thrilling finale.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 29 Kevin Harvick
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 5 Mark Martin
7) 17 Matt Kenseth
8) 33 Clint Bowyer
9) 20 Joey Logano
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 1 Jamie McMurray
13) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 14 Tony Stewart
15) 18 Kyle Busch
16) 2 Kurt Busch
17) 00 David Reutimann
18) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
19) 83 Kasey Kahne
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

21) 39 Ryan Newman
22) 98 Paul Menard
23) 6 David Ragan
24) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
25) 47 Marcos Ambrose

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI DRIVER STATS
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 8.4 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 10.0, third-best
? Driver Rating of 101.1, fourth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.423 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,029 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), second-most
? 197 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, six top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.7 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 14.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
? 315 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.266 mph, eighth-fastest
? 956 Laps in the Top 15 (71.6%), fourth-most
? 190 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
? One win, three top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 10.6 in five races
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
? 61 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 357 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.236 mph, 10th-fastest
? 822 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5%), ninth-most
? 192 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 9.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.1, sixth-best
? 53 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 355 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.373 mph, sixth-fastest
? 924 Laps in the Top 15 (69.2%), fifth-most
? 233 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.5 in six races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 8.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 111.0
? Series-high 112 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 162.769 mph
? Series-high 1,112 Laps in the Top 15 (83.2%)
? 210 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 19.8 in 10 races
? Average Running Position of 10.8, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.3, second-best
? 67 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 297 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.499 mph, fourth-fastest
? 965 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2%), third-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 16.3 in four races
? Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.5, 11th-best
? 774 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), 10th-most
? 159 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Three wins, three top fives, three top 10s

? Average finish of 13.5 in eight races
? Average Running Position of 13.0, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 99.0, fifth-best
? 95 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 335 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.573 mph, second-fastest
? 889 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), seventh-most
? 152 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 14.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 16.9, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
? 50 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.195 mph, 11th-fastest
? 723 Laps in the Top 15 (54.1%), 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.8 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.2, 12th-best
? 60 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 303 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.105 mph, 12th-fastest
? 907 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), sixth-most
? 186 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 25.2 in five races
? Average Running Position of 20.3, 22nd-best
? Driver Rating of 84.2, 15th-best

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 19.6 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 22.9, 28th-best
? Driver Rating of 78.3, 19th-best
? 73 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 162.328 mph, seventh-fastest

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI HIGHLIGHTS
? Since the inception of the current points system in 1975, only two drivers have made up a points deficit in the season finale: Richard Petty in 1979 (made up two points on Darrell Waltrip) and Alan Kulwicki in 1992 (made up 30 points on Davey Allison).
? Five drivers have competed in all 11 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Elliott Sadler and Tony Stewart.
? Tony Stewart won the inaugural race, in 1999.
? There have been nine different pole winners. Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson lead all drivers, with two.
? There have been eight different race winners, led by Greg Biffle, with three.
? Jack Roush has won six races, most among owners.
? The race has been won from the pole twice: Bill Elliott (2001) and Kurt Busch (2002).
? The race has been won from a top-10 starting position eight of 11 times.
? Denny Hamlin won last season from the 38th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
? Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (6.5), Jeff Gordon (9.5) and Kevin Harvick (8.4).

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