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Four To Go Until Chase, Michigan Up Next

While there wasn’t a change in the standings affecting whose is qualified for the NASCAR Chase for the Championship, the odds of drivers being in the Chase after Richmond have changed.

Another driver has been added to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winners list after Marcos Ambrose finally captured the checkers at Watkins Glen this past Monday. With the win, Ambrose moved into 22nd place in the point standing just one point out of the top 20. Only drivers in the top 20 are eligible for the Wild Card entries into the Chase for the Championship.

Up next is Michigan International Speedway, a two mile wide open track. With multiple racing lines, caution flags don’t fly as often at other tracks meaning fuel mileage and handling will be important. An ill-handling car early in the race can put a driver back in the pack or even a lap down and unable to make up the ground lost without caution periods bunching the field back together. Less cautions mean more cars in the race at the end, and an equipment failure can have a driver finishing in the 40’s rather than 30’s, a possible difference of 10 championship points.

Heluva Good Moves At The Glen
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior now has a 36 point gap between himself and eleventh place in the points, a 13 point increase over last week. With four races to go at tracks where Junior has won six races, odds are looking good that Junior will be back in the Chase.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski almost collected two wins in a row with another strong run since his practice accident injured his back and ankle. The way Keselowski is running, his team will probably break his ankle again once it heals. Moving all the way up to 14th in the points after a second place finish at Watkins Glen, Keselowski is close to locking one of the Wild Card entries to the Chase. His home state track hasn’t been good to the Michigan native in the past, but considering the roll he is on right now, this homecoming could be a good one for Keselowski.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has moved into 11th place in the standings, 25 points behind Tony Stewart. When Stewart lost control on the last lap of the race at the Glen, one car he hit was Bowyer, the driver chasing him in the standings. Far from intentional, the contact probably cost Bowyer a couple points. Bowyer’s finish and Stewart’s problems on the last lap could set up an interesting battle for the top ten in the points.

Marcos Ambrose – The win at The Glen does not put Ambrose in the Chase, but he is close. One point away from being in the top twenty and there are three other drivers with wins currently in the top twenty. Realistically, Ambrose needs another win to capture a Wild Card, but now that is a possibility.

Heluva Not So Good Moves At The Glen
Tony Stewart – On the final restart at The Glen, Stewart was in seventh. After a spin through the bus stop on the final lap, Stewart finished 27th. The difference between the two is twenty points, a huge amount considering the tight battle for tenth in the standings. As with everyone, a win would be a huge help in getting Stewart into the Chase considering his 25 point cushion may not be enough.

Denny Hamlin – A scary wreck following rear brake failure as Hamlin hoped to slow down entering turn one ruined a possible top ten finish at The Glen. Hamlin is still the leader of the one win drivers that are shooting for a Wild Card spot but he almost gave that up to Paul Menard (more on that next). The one win that Hamlin has came from the first Michigan race back in June. With Michigan on the schedule this week, Hamlin could separate himself from the others with another win.

Paul Menard – Menard had a shot at moving back into the Wild Card group when Hamlin’s crash took him out of the race. Unfortunately for Menard, a tire issue late in the race put him in the wall and took away a possible top 15 finish. If Menard had finished in the top 15, he would have been only ten points behind Hamlin. Now he has 27 points to make up.

David Ragan – That last lap wreck bounced Ragan off of three walls and bounced him out of the top twenty in the standings. There are three drivers that have a win and are not in the top twenty: Ambrose (1 point behind 20th), Ragan (5 points behind 20th) and Regan Smith (82 points behind 20th). The first task for these drivers is to get back in the top 20 and then get in front of Menard and Hamlin. It’s a tall task and at this point only wins are going to help.

Four wins are left for the taking prior to the start of the Chase, and the drivers from 9th in the points and lower need those wins the most.

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