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Fontana Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Auto Club 400
THE PLACE: Auto Club Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, March 27, 2011 – 3:16 pm EST, 2:16 CST

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana this weekend for the running of the Auto Club 400. This classic D-shaped oval stretches two miles in length, with 14 degrees of banking on the corners and 11 degrees on the sweeping front stretch. Its 75-foot wide track plus 15 foot apron provides ample room for passing. Drivers will race 250 laps en route to the checkered flag.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 29 Kevin Harvick
6) 17 Matt Kenseth
7) 22 Kurt Busch
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 18 Kyle Busch
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 16 Greg Biffle
12) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
13) 4 Kasey Kahne
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 39 Ryan Newman
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
17) 00 David Reutimann
18) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
19) 20 Joey Logano
20) 31 Jeff Burton
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 27 Paul Menard
23) 6 David Ragan
24) 83 Brian Vickers
25) 21 Trevor Bayne

FONTANA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 11 top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 5.3
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.2
• Series-best Driver Rating of 124.2
• Series-high 427 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 171.874 mph
• Series-high 2,823 Laps in the Top 15 (95.5%)
• 611 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.2
• Average Running Position of 11.2, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.6, seventh-best
• 148 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 896 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 170.998 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,173 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5%), fifth-most
• 593 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
• One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 9.2
• Average Running Position of 12.7, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 98.7, sixth-best
• 151 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.154 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,163 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2%), sixth-most
• 540 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Three wins, 10 top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 10.9
• Average Running Position of 9.3, third-best
• Driver Rating of 99.6, fifth-best
• 189 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 954 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.123 mph, sixth-fastest
• 2,332 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), third-most
• Series-high 649 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy Johns Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 17.1
• Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.2, 10th-best
• 73 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 952 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 170.763 mph, ninth-fastest
• 2,088 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7%), eighth-most
• 551 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 9.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 107.5, second-best
• 124 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 894 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.219 mph, third-fastest
• 2,417 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%), second-most
• 555 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Southern California AAA Dodge)
• One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 12.7
• Average Running Position of 13.7, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 91.9, 11th-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 964 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 170.746 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,090 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7%), seventh-most
• 616 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.2
• Driver Rating of 88.4, 13th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 170.749 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,528 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), 13th-most
• 456 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.7
• Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.7, fourth-best
• 135 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 915 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.036 mph, seventh-fastest
• 2,275 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), fourth-most
• 640 Quality Passes, second-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 13.3
• Average Running Position of 9.6, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.5, third-best
• 141 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.234 mph, second-fastest
• 1,938 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One win, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 18.3
• Average Running Position of 13.0, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.0, eighth-best
• 213 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.167 mph, fourth-fastest
• 2,020 Laps in the Top 15 (68.4%), ninth-most
• 500 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 15.4
• Average Running Position of 14.4, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 93.9, ninth-best
• 106 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 885 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 170.651 mph, 12th-fastest
• 1,914 Laps in the Top 15 (64.8%), 11th-most
• 549 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.0
• Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.6, 12th-best

AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• There have been 14 different pole winners since the track opened in 1997, led by Kurt Busch (three). Brian Vickers, Jamie McMurray and Jeff Gordon each have two poles.
• Thirteen different drivers have posted victories. Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with five wins. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth each have won three races.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won nine races, more than any other team.
• Ten of the 21 races were won from starting positions outside the top 10; only one has been won from the pole (Jimmie Johnson in 2008). The most prolific starting position is third, with three victories.
• Two active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Jimmie Johnson (5.3) and Carl Edwards (9.2).
• Kyle Busch won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole (2/05) and first race (9/05) at Auto Club Speedway.

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