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Dover Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: AAA 400
THE PLACE: Dover International Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, October 2, 2011 – 2:15pm/et, 1:15pm/ct

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to “The Monster Mile” in Dover Delaware for round three of the ten-race 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup. Dover’s high-banked (24 degrees) one-mile concrete racing surface has been likened to racing in a giant cereal bowl. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 22 Kurt Busch
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 2 Brad Keselowski
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 16 Greg Biffle
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 39 Ryan Newman
14) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
15) 83 Brian Vickers
16) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
17) 33 Clint Bowyer
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 11 Denny Hamlin
20) 4 Kasey Kahne
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 9 Marcos Ambrose
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 1 Jamie McMurray
26) 27 Paul Menard
27) 00 David Reutimann
28) 78 Regan Smith
29) 47 Bobby Labonte
30) 13 Casey Mears

DOVER DRIVER STATS
1 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.5 in 25 races
• Average Running Position of 21.7, 26th-best
• Driver Rating of 71.4, 24th-best
• 508 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most

2 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Rheem Chasing The Cure Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 17.0 in 21 races
• Average Running Position of 18.0, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 78.3, 15th-best
• 513 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 2,607 Laps in the Top 15 (50.1%), 13th-most
• 219 Quality Passes, 13th-most

3 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Average finish of 17.7 in three races
• Average Running Position of 18.3, 15th-best
• Driver Rating of 70.3, 25th-best

4 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 7.6 in 14 races
• Average Running Position of 9.6, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.9, fourth-best
• 404 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 513 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.769 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,897 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fifth-most
• Series-high 384 Quality Passes

5 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.2 in 37 races
• Average Running Position of 13.7, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.4, 11th-best
• 481 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.568 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,686 Laps in the Top 15 (70.8%), eighth-most
• 319 Quality Passes, sixth-most

6 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 13.8 in 13 races
• Average Running Position of 12.6, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.0, fifth-best
• 226 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.747 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,808 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2%), seventh-most
• 326 Quality Passes, fifth-most

7 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.4 in 25 races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
• Driver Rating of 110.0, second-best
• 348 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 530 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.944 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 4,402 Laps in the Top 15 (84.6%)
• 379 Quality Passes, second-most

8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 17.8 in 23 races
• Average Running Position of 20.5, 23rd-best
• Driver Rating of 76.1, 17th-best
• 131 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 486 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most

9 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 18.7 in 22 races
• Average Running Position of 11.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
• 180 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 503 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.502 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,533 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), ninth-most
• 304 Quality Passes, eighth-most

10 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
• Six wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 9.6 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 8.0, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 117.4
• Series-high 669 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 143.132 mph
• 4,371 Laps in the Top 15 (84.0%), second-most
• 261 Quality Passes, ninth-most

11 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army ROTC Chevrolet)
• Three wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 10.9 in 19 races
• Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.5, eighth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.360 mph, 10th-fastest
• 4,008 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), fourth-most

12 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 20.9 in 11 races
• Average Running Position of 18.7, 17th-best
• Driver Rating of 79.3, 13th-best

“MONSTER MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
• Richard Petty won the track’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1969.
• Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers, with six victories.
• Hendrick Motorsports has a series-high 12 wins.
• 50 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 18 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
• 13 drivers have won from the pole. The last to do so was Jimmie Johnson, in last season’s September race.

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