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Dover Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks
THE PLACE: Dover International Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, May 15, 2011 – 1:15pm/et, 12:15pm/ct

This Sunday’s event at Dover is the first of two annual visits that NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will make to the Monster Mile in Dover Delaware. 400 laps are on tap at this tough, fast, high-banked (24 degrees), concrete oval. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 16 Greg Biffle
6) 29 Kevin Harvick
7) 24 Jeff Gordon
8) 22 Kurt Busch
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 4 Kasey Kahne
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 11 Denny Hamlin
16) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
17) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
18) 27 Paul Menard
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 1 Jamie McMurray
22) 2 Brad Keselowski
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
25) 9 Marcos Ambrose

DOVER DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Six wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 9.7
• Average Running Position of 8.5, third-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 116.3
• Series-high 620 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 142.896 mph
• 3,971 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7%), fourth-most
• 246 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• One win, six top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 7.7
• Average Running Position of 10.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.1, fourth-best
• 319 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 475 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.490 mph, sixth-fastest
• 3,498 Laps in the Top 15 (72.8%), sixth-most
• 353 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Two wins, six top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 14.7
• Average Running Position of 12.6, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, fifth-best
• 221 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.552 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,452 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), ninth-most
• 287 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Wiley X Sunglasses Ford)
• One win, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.9
• Average Running Position of 8.0, second-best
• Driver Rating of 109.3, third-best
• 316 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 477 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.715 mph, third-fastest
• 4,028 Laps in the Top 15 (83.8%), second-most
• 341 Quality Passes, third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 11.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
• Driver Rating of 110.1, second-best
• 393 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 461 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.733 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 4,231 Laps in the Top 15 (88.1%)
• Series-high 364 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.1
• Average Running Position of 13.5, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.5, ninth-best
• 417 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.369 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,465 Laps in the Top 15 (72.1%), eighth-most
• 298 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 18.9
• Average Running Position of 11.1, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 96.8, seventh-best
• 179 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 435 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.329 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,478 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), seventh-most
• 288 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
• Three wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 9.6, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.203 mph, ninth-fastest
• 4,007 Laps in the Top 15 (83.4%), third-most
• 258 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 22 top fives, 30 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.5
• Average Running Position of 10.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.1, sixth-best
• 279 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 465 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.491 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,551 Laps in the Top 15 (73.9%), fifth-most
• 276 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.5
• Average Running Position of 13.5, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 90.2, 10th-best
• 156 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Series-high 525 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.066 mph, 13th-fastest
• 3,131 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), 10th-most
• 289 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet)
• Three top 10s
• Average finish of 15.7
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.4, 12th-best
• 107 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 2,662 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), 11th-most
• 241 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
• One win, one top five, three top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.8
• Average Running Position of 15.4, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
• 183 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 142.078 mph, 12th-fastest
• 2,442 Laps in the Top 15 (61.1%), 12th-most
• 223 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Boats Chevrolet)
• One top five, five top 10s
• Average finish of 17.6
• Average Running Position of 17.7, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 80.0, 13th-best
• 501 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 194 Quality Passes, 13th-most

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Richard Petty won the track’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1969.
• Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers, with six victories.
• Hendrick Motorsports has a series-high 12 wins.
• 50 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
• 13 drivers have won from the pole. The last to do so was Jimmie Johnson, in last season’s September race.

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