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Dover Fantasy Forecast

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
AAA 400
Sunday, September 26, 2010 in Dover, Delaware

This Sunday, NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers make their second of two annual visits to “The Monster Mile” in Dover Delaware for round two of the ten-race 2010 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship. Dover’s high-banked (24 degrees) one-mile concrete racing surface has been likened to racing in a giant cereal bowl. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula that includes drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 16 Greg Biffle
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 33 Clint Bowyer
7) 39 Ryan Newman
8) 24 Jeff Gordon
9) 31 Jeff Burton
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 2 Kurt Busch
13) 00 David Reutimann
14) 11 Denny Hamlin
15) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
16) 29 Kevin Harvick
17) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
18) 1 Jamie McMurray
19) 9 Kasey Kahne
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 47 Marcos Ambrose
23) 12 Brad Keselowski
24) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
25) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

DOVER DRIVER STATS
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kellogg’s/Cheez-it Ford)
? One win, five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 7.9 in 12 races
? Average Running Position of 10.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, fourth-best
? 296 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 428 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 312 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Five wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.2 in 17 races
? Average Running Position of 9.1, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 113.8
? Series-high 562 Fastest Laps Run
? 387 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 142.557 mph
? 3,571 Laps in the Top 15 (81.1%), fourth-most
? 221 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? One win, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.7 in 23 races
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.3
? Driver Rating of 111.8, third-best
? 315 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 417 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.435 mph, third-fastest
? 3,846 Laps in the Top 15 (87.3%), second-most
? 315 Quality Passes, second-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.5 in 16 races
? Average Running Position of 7.4, second-best
? Driver Rating of 112.2, second-best
? 388 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 405 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.457 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 4,049 Laps in the Top 15 (91.9%)
? Series-high 338 Quality Passes

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Two wins, six top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.5 in 11 races
? Average Running Position of 13.3, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.6, fifth-best
? 203 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.217 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,054 Laps in the Top 15 (69.3%), ninth-most
? 246 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.7 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.5, 10th-best
? 104 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.893 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,568 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), 11th-most
? 230 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.1 in 35 races
? Average Running Position of 14.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.0, ninth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.035 mph, seventh-fastest
? 3,071 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7%), eighth-most
? 254 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, 14 top 10s
? Average finish of 15.9 in 33 races
? Average Running Position of 13.7, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.3, 11th-best
? 129 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 463 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.696 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,875 Laps in the Top 15 (65.3%), 10th-most
? 260 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.4 in 23 races
? Average Running Position of 20.7, 22nd-best
? Driver Rating of 73.2, 20th-best
? 421 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 19.7 in 20 races
? Average Running Position of 11.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, eighth-best
? 153 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 3,101 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), sixth-most
? 240 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 22.8 in nine races
? Average Running Position of 20.2, 21st-best
? Driver Rating of 77.5, 15th-best

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 17.4 in 19 races
? Average Running Position of 19.4, 17th-best
? Driver Rating of 75.2, 18th-best
? 402 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most

“MONSTER MILE” HIGHLIGHTS
? Richard Petty won the track’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1969.
? Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers with four poles each.
? Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with five victories. He swept last season, scoring a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 in the spring event.
? Hendrick Motorsports has a series-high 12 wins.
? 49 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? 12 drivers have won from the pole. The last to do so was Jimmie Johnson, in last season’s September race.

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