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Dover Fantasy Forecast

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
Autism Speaks 400 presented by Hershey’s Milk & Milkshakes
Sunday 16, 2010 in Dover, DE

This Sunday’s event at Dover is the first of two annual visits that NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will make to the Monster Mile in Dover Delaware. 400 laps are on tap at this tough, fast, high-banked (24 degrees), concrete oval. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 39 Ryan Newman
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 29 Kevin Harvick
10) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
11) 2 Kurt Busch
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 11 Denny Hamlin
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 1 Jamie McMurray
18) 14 Tony Stewart
19) 00 David Reutimann
20) 12 Brad Keselowski
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
23) 47 Marcos Ambrose
24) 6 David Ragan
25) 83 Brian Vickers

DOVER DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Five wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 9.8
? Average Running Position of 9.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 112.3, third-best
? Series-high 475 Fastest Laps Run
? 369 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 142.049 mph
? 3,206 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), fourth-most
? 204 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, five top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 7.9
? Average Running Position of 10.3, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 103.7, fourth-best
? 288 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 382 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.703 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,825 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6%), sixth-most
? 273 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? One win, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 7.1, second-best
? Driver Rating of 112.6, second-best
? 306 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 381 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.022 mph, third-fastest
? 3,580 Laps in the Top 15 (89.4%), second-most
? Series-high 304 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 22 top fives, 30 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.5
? Average Running Position of 9.5, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.9, fifth-best
? 270 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 349 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.818 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,144 Laps in the Top 15 (78.5%), fifth-most
? 220 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.2
? Average Running Position of 14.2, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.3, ninth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.596 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,692 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), eighth-most
? 202 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.8
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 114.7
? 372 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.048 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 3,747 Laps in the Top 15 (93.6%)
? 294 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Three wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 10.3
? Average Running Position of 8.6, third-best
? Driver Rating of 98.8, sixth-best
? 95 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.458 mph, ninth-fastest
? 3,567 Laps in the Top 15 (89.1%), third-most
? 212 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Snickers Toyota)
? One win, five top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 16.9
? Average Running Position of 14.5, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 98.5, seventh-best
? 175 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.729 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,654 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3%), ninth-most
? 218 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 19.7
? Average Running Position of 11.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
? 143 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 349 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.558 mph, eighth-fastest
? 2,817 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), seventh-most
? 209 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 16.3
? Average Running Position of 14.4, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.3, 12th-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 418 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? 2,540 Laps in the Top 15 (63.4%), 10th-most
? 224 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? One win, one top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 15.7, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.2, 11th-best
? 151 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.250 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,836 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), 12th-most
? 176 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 13.7, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.9, 10th-best
? 94 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 2,255 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5%), 11th-most
? 197 Quality Passes, 11th-most

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Dover Downs International Speedway in 1969.
? The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
? The track name was changed to Dover International Speedway in 2002.
? Of the 34 different pole winners, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
? Of the 32 different drivers with wins, Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers, with five victories. He swept last season, scoring a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 in the spring event.
? Hendrick Motorsports has a series-high 12 wins.
? 48 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? Martin Truex Jr. won his first race at Dover (2007).
? Two of the last three races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.

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