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Dover Fantasy Forecast

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
Autism 400 presented by Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips & Cheese
Sunday, May 31, 2009 in Dover, DE

This Sunday’s event at Dover is the first of two annual visits that NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will make to the Monster Mile in Dover Delaware. 400 laps are on tap at this tough, fast, high-banked (24 degrees), concrete oval. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best (Heluva Good!) chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track over the last several years, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Dover.

TOP TWENTY

1) 16 Greg Biffle

2) 99 Carl Edwards

3) 17 Matt Kenseth

4) 39 Ryan Newman

5) 5 Mark Martin

6) 48 Jimmie Johnson

7) 18 Kyle Busch

8) 24 Jeff Gordon

9) 31 Jeff Burton

10) 1 Martin Truex Jr.

11) 20 Joey Logano

12) 26 Jamie McMurray

13) 11 Denny Hamlin

14) 2 Kurt Busch

15) 14 Tony Stewart

16) 25 Brad Keselowski

17) 83 Brian Vickers

18) 33 Clint Bowyer

19) 00 David Reutimann

20) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.

With expectations high coming into the season, merely putting three drivers in the top 12 through 12 races isn’t enough for Roush Fenway Racing. After starting off the season with back-to-back wins by Matt Kenseth, Roush Fenway has gone winless over the last 10 races. All that seems likely to change, as nearly the entire stable excels at Dover – a track at which Roush Fenway finished 1-2-3 the last time the series raced there.

Carl Edwards: Has five consecutive Dover finishes in the top three, including a win in the 2007 Chase race. His 105.7 Driver Rating makes Dover his fourth-best track. His Dover prowess – as at Bristol – helped earn Edwards the nickname “Concrete Carl.”

Matt Kenseth: Won there in the spring of 2006, and was runner-up in last season’s Dover Chase race. His Driver Rating of 114.5 is second only to his Chicagoland rating of 120.4. Plus, Kenseth’s first start and pole came at Dover.

Greg Biffle: Has two Dover wins, and top-10 finishes in each of the last six Dover races. His 116.6 Driver Rating is best in the series, and makes Dover his third-best track in terms of Driver Rating.

Jamie McMurray: His 79.8 Driver Rating makes Dover his sixth-best track. Had a runner-up finish at Dover in 2006.

David Ragan: The lone Roush Fenway driver who struggles at Dover. In five races, Ragan has yet to notch a top-10 finish.

SELECTED DOVER DRIVER STATS
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/NEXCARE Ford)
? Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.2
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
? Series-best Driver Rating of 116.6
? Series-high 332 Fastest Laps Run
? 288 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.759 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 3,026 Laps in the Top 15 (94.4%)
? 250 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, five top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 7.7
? Average Running Position of 9.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.7, third-best
? 274 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 300 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.434 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,340 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0%), sixth-most
? 213 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.1
? Average Running Position of 6.5, second-best
? Driver Rating of 114.5, second-best
? 294 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 141.776 mph
? 2,977 Laps in the Top 15 (92.9%), second-most
? Series-high 255 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 21 top fives, 28 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 12.8
? Average Running Position of 9.8, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.6, sixth-best
? 217 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.421 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,463 Laps in the Top 15 (76.9%), fourth-most
? 172 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.9, fourth-best
? 193 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 337 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.520 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,411 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fifth-most
? 172 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, five top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 14.0, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 102.3, fifth-best
? 168 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.584 mph, third-fastest
? 2,206 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9%), ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 13.8, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.4, ninth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.235 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,285 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), seventh-most
? 180 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
? One win, one top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 11.3
? Average Running Position of 12.0, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 95.3, eighth-best
? 144 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 21.4
? Average Running Position of 12.8, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.0, 10th-best
? 99 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 293 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? 167 Quality Passes, eighth-most

DOVER HIGHLIGHTS
? Dover Downs International Speedway opened in 1969. The track was renamed to Dover International Speedway in 2002.
? The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
? The first two races at Dover were 300 miles. The race length was changed to 500 miles in 1971 and then to 400 miles in 1997.
? Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
? Bill Elliott, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin lead all active drivers, each with four victories.
? Hendrick Motorsports has 10 wins, more than any other car owner.
? 47 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position, while only 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? Carl Edwards has an average finish of 7.7 in nine races at Dover, the best average finish of any driver in history with more than two starts at the track. David Pearson (8.0 in 16 races) ranks second among the drivers with more than two starts there.
? Ryan Newman won at Dover in June 2003 – the first victory for Dodge there since 1975. Newman repeated as the race winner in the fall race, the first time Dodge posted consecutive victories at Dover. Newman then won again in the fall of 2004, giving Dodge three of their five Dover victories in the four-race span.

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