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Daytona Fantasy Forecast

DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Coke Zero 400 Powered By Coca-Cola, Saturday July 5, 2008

Daytona. Fast, history making, dangerous, world-class, unforgiving, Mecca. A track where winning means everything and second place is the first loser. They started running on the famous sand beaches of Daytona in 1947. In February 1959, the first Daytona 500 was held on the brand new 2.5-mile superspeedway. In February 1988, the era of restrictor-plate racing was ushered in, as cars were run for the first time using horsepower-reducing carburetor restrictors. The plates are used exclusively at Daytona and Talladega.

Saturday night racing is back as Sprint Cup drivers take to the high-banked, high-speed, high-drama action that has so personified Daytona over the years. This race features 160 laps of tight racing in what should prove to be yet another wild Daytona classic.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and the only other restrictor-plate track, Talladega, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTYONE
1) 20 Tony Stewart
2) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 2 Kurt Busch
6) 12 Ryan Newman
7) 18 Kyle Busch
8) 17 Matt Kenseth
9) 9 Kasey Kahne
10) 83 Brian Vickers
11) 19 Elliott Sadler
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 11 Denny Hamlin
14) 26 Jamie McMurray
15) 99 Carl Edwards
16) 8 Mark Martin
17) 38 David Gilliland
18) 29 Kevin Harvick
19) 5 Casey Mears
20) 07 Clint Bowyer
21) 1 Martin Truex Jr.

Tony Stewart?s near-victory in this year?s Daytona 500 should?ve surprised no one. Even though Stewart has yet to win NASCAR?s most-famous race, he?s had plenty of success at NASCAR?s most-famous track. Which is why no one should be surprised if he ends his 31-race winless streak Saturday night.

Stewart, third in the 500 this year, has 12 wins at Daytona International Speedway, including two in this race in 2005 and 2006, 2 Gatorade Duel victories, 3 Budweiser Shootout wins, 3 in the Nationwide Series, and 2 International Race of Champions crowns. Over the last seven Daytona Sprint Cup events, Stewart has led a series-high 415 laps. That amounts to 32% of all laps run, and dwarfs the second-best total of 150 by Kurt Busch.

SELECTED DAYTONA DRIVER STATS

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.6
? Average Running Position of 12.4, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 108.1
? 37 Fastest Laps Run, tied for fourth-most
? 906 (70.3%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.9
? Average Running Position of 14.8, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.5, 10th-best
? 40 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 840 (65.2%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
? 851 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 13.2
? Series-high Average Running Position of 9.8
? Driver Rating of 95.5, third-best
? 1,194 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 184.995 mph, fourth-fastest
? Series-high 985 (76.5%) Laps in the Top 15
? 910 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 14.7
? Average Running Position of 12.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.9, seventh-best
? 1,240 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 184.921 mph, seventh-fastest
? 866 (67.2%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 818 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Seven top fives
? Average finish of 19.3
? Average Running Position of 15.1, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.0, fifth-best
? 26 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 12th-most
? 847 (65.8%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
? 768 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 18.7
? Average Running Position of 11.3, second-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, second-best
? 30 Fastest Laps Run, tied for seventh-most
? 1,342 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.055 mph, second-fastest
? 971 (75.4%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? Series-high 988 Quality Passes

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M?s Toyota)
? Three top fives
? Average finish of 17.7
? Average Running Position of 12.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.3, fourth-best
? 25 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 14th-most
? 948 (73.6%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 981 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? One top five, six top 10s
? Average finish of 20.4; Finished 36th in February
? Average Running Position of 15.1, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.4, sixth-best
? 39 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 184.981 mph, fifth-fastest
? 876 (68.0%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 943 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.8
? Average Running Position of 15.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.2, 11th-best
? 28 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 1,442 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 184.902 mph, eighth-fastest
? 724 (56.2%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
? 829 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Jack Daniel?s Chevrolet)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 13.0
? Average Running Position of 15.6, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.0, ninth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 184.864 mph, 10th-fastest

DAYTONA HIGHLIGHTS
? Groundbreaking for Daytona International Speedway was on November 25, 1957.
? Lee Petty won the inaugural Daytona 500 on Feb. 22, 1959.
? Fireball Roberts won the first 400-mile race at Daytona, in 1963.
? Richard Petty leads all drivers in victories at Daytona with 10, earning his 200th career race on July 4, 1984 at Daytona.
? Jeff Gordon has six victories at Daytona, more than any other active driver.
? The Wood Brothers have won 14 races at Daytona, more than any other organization.
? A driver has swept both races at Daytona only four times, most recently by Bobby Allison in 1982.
? Tony Stewart has led 531 laps in 19 races at Daytona, more than any other active driver. He is 10th all-time in laps led there. Jeff Gordon is 12th all-time in Daytona laps led with 511 ? but Gordon has competed in 12 more races there than Stewart.

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