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Daytona Fantasy Forecast

Daytona Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Daytona 500
THE PLACE: Daytona International Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, February 20, 2011 – 1:19 pm eastern, 12:19 central

Daytona. Fast, history making, dangerous, world-class, unforgiving, Mecca. They started running on the famous sand beaches of Daytona in 1947. In February 1959, the first Daytona 500 was held on the brand new 2.5-mile superspeedway. In February 1988, the era of restrictor-plate racing was ushered in, as cars were run for the first time using horsepower-reducing carburetor restrictors. The plates are used exclusively at Daytona and Talladega.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. We also capture the ever-powerful momentum by factoring in results from the last month of racing. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 29 Kevin Harvick
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 16 Greg Biffle
5) 33 Clint Bowyer
6) 22 Kurt Busch
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 48 Jimmie Johnson
9) 20 Joey Logano
10) 14 Tony Stewart
11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12) 18 Kyle Busch
13) 5 Mark Martin
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 4 Kasey Kahne
16) 1 Jamie McMurray
17) 83 Brian Vickers
18) 6 David Ragan
19) 31 Jeff Burton
20) 39 Ryan Newman
21) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
22) 24 Jeff Gordon
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 2 Brad Keselowski
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

DAYTONA DRIVER STATS
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 16.6, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.5, seventh-best
• Series-high 61 Fastest Laps Run
• 2,426 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• 1,141 Laps in the Top 15 (53.4%), 11th-most
• 1,282 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
• Three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 17.7
• Average Running Position of 15.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 85.2, 10th-best
• 2,444 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.805 mph, second-fastest
• 1,339 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), seventh-most
• Series-high 1,717 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• One win, three top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 17.3
• Average Running Position of 14.5, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.6, sixth-best
• 60 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 2,076 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.685 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,376 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), sixth-most
• 1,436 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 15.7, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 86.7, eighth-best

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Nine top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 14.0, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.8, third-best
• 49 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 2,088 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.656 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,428 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9%), fourth-most
• 1,519 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 16.3
• Series-best Average Running Position of 11.0
• Driver Rating of 91.7, fifth-best
• 2,201 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 185.863 mph
• 1,567 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4%), second-most
• 1,605 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet)
• Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.1
• Average Running Position of 13.1, fourth-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 100.7
• 57 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.709 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,413 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
• Average finish of 14.4
• Average Running Position of 15.6, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 86.7, ninth-best
• 55 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 1,262 Laps in the Top 15 (59.1%), eighth-most
• 1,320 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, four top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 19.5
• Average Running Position of 12.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 99.0, second-best
• 45 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.644 mph, 11th-fastest
• Series-high 1,581 Laps in the Top 15 (74.0%)
• 1,511 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• One top five, five top 10s
• Average finish of 17.6
• Driver Rating of 81.4, 13th-best
• 51 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 2,536 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.702 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,363 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 15.3, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 84.9, 11th-best
• 47 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Series-high 2,541 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.762 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,214 Laps in the Top 15 (56.8%), ninth-most
• 1,520 Quality Passes, third-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 21.9
• Average Running Position of 17.1, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 81.4, 12th-best
• 43 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 2,190 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 1,140 Laps in the Top 15 (53.4%), 12th-most
• 1,238 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive For Hunger Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 12 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 15.4
• Average Running Position of 12.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 92.8, fourth-best
• 46 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 2,109 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 185.650 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,433 Laps in the Top 15 (67.1%), third-most
• 1,459 Quality Passes, seventh-most

DAYTONA HIGHLIGHTS
• The 2011 edition will be the 53rd running of the Daytona 500.
• Lee Petty won the inaugural Daytona 500 on Feb. 22, 1959.
• Richard Petty leads all drivers in victories at Daytona with 10.
• Jeff Gordon has six victories at Daytona, more than any other active driver.
• The Wood Brothers have won 14 races at Daytona, more than any other car owner.
• 17 full-length races at Daytona have been won from the pole, the last to do it was Kevin Harvick in last year’s Coke Zero 400.
• A driver has swept both races at Daytona only four times, most recently by Bobby Allison in 1982.

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