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Daytona Fantasy Forecast

DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
Coke Zero 400
Saturday, July 3, 2010 in Daytona Beach, FL

Saturday night racing is back as Sprint Cup drivers take to the high-banked, high-speed, high-drama action that has so personified Daytona International Speedway over the years. This 400-mile summer installment of Daytona racing features 160 laps of battling, bashing and banging at the famed 2.5-mile superspeedway.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 2 Kurt Busch
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 29 Kevin Harvick
4) 14 Tony Stewart
5) 9 Kasey Kahne
6) 48 Jimmie Johnson
7) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 33 Clint Bowyer
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
13) 1 Jamie McMurray
14) 17 Matt Kenseth
15) 20 Joey Logano
16) 99 Carl Edwards
17) 24 Jeff Gordon
18) 19 Elliott Sadler
19) 6 David Ragan
20) 5 Mark Martin
21) 47 Marcos Ambrose
22) 39 Ryan Newman
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
25) 7 Robby Gordon

DAYTONA DRIVER STATS
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Sixth in points
? Nine top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 17.5
? Average Running Position of 14.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.7, fourth-best
? 42 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.409 mph, 12th-fastest
? 1,292 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), sixth-most
? 1,315 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
? Third in points
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.6
? Average Running Position of 10.9, second-best
? Driver Rating of 100.6, second-best
? 43 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Series-high 1,520 Laps in the Top 15 (77.2%)
? 1,441 Quality Passes, second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? Points leader
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.2
? Average Running Position of 17.3, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.4, ninth-best
? Series-high 61 Fastest Laps Run
? 2,238 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? 1,003 Laps in the Top 15 (50.9%), 13th-most
? 1,128 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Burger King Chevrolet)
? Ninth in points
? Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.7
? Average Running Position of 12.2, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 104.5
? 54 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.559 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,383 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? One win, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.4
? Series-best Average Running Position of 10.9
? Driver Rating of 91.8, fifth-best
? 1,952 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 185.637 mph
? 1,440 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), second-most
? 1,397 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard “8 Soldiers 8 Missions”/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
? 13th in points
? Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.9
? Average Running Position of 15.2, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 87.7, eighth-best
? 51 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.447 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,218 Laps in the Top 15 (61.8%), seventh-most
? 1,245 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Enters Daytona 15th in points
? Two top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 12.3
? Average Running Position of 15.5, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.4, seventh-best
? 1,869 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Eighth in points
? One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.5
? Average Running Position of 15.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 82.5, 12th-best
? 44 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Series-high 2,319 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.530 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,069 Laps in the Top 15 (54.3%), 11th-most
? 1,336 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
? 17th in points
? Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 23.9
? Average Running Position of 17.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 82.1, 13th-best
? 2,114 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.408 mph, 13th-fastest
? 1,072 Laps in the Top 15 (54.4%), 10th-most
? 1,367 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Jeremiah Weed Ford)
? Seventh in points
? One win, three top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 17.4
? Average Running Position of 14.4, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.4, third-best
? 56 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.590 mph, third-fastest
? 1,294 Laps in the Top 15 (65.7%), fifth-most
? 1,298 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Subway Ford)
? 12th in points
? Three top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 18.7
? Average Running Position of 16.0, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 84.0, 10th-best
? 41 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 2,171 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.604 mph, second-fastest
? 1,194 Laps in the Top 15 (60.6%), eighth-most
? Series-high 1,485 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Fifth in points
? Six wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 15.8
? Average Running Position of 12.5, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.5, sixth-best
? 1,897 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.425 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,297 Laps in the Top 15 (65.8%), fourth-most
? 1,286 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
? 14th in points
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 21.7
? Average Running Position of 17.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 82.7, 11th-best
? 41 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 1,990 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? 1,065 Laps in the Top 15 (54.1%), 12th-most
? 1,138 Quality Passes, 11th-most

DAYTONA HIGHLIGHTS
? Lee Petty won the first Daytona 500 on Feb. 22, 1959.
? Richard Petty leads all drivers in victories with 10.
? Jeff Gordon has six victories, more than any other active driver.
? The Wood Brothers have won 14 races at Daytona, more than any other car owner.
? 16 full-length races at Daytona have been won from the pole, including last year’s Coke Zero 400, won by pole sitter Tony Stewart.
? A driver has swept both races at Daytona only four times, most recently by Bobby Allison in 1982.
? The last nine Daytona races that finished under green have had a margin of victory under a half second.

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