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Daytona Fantasy Forecast

DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Coke Zero 400
Saturday, July 4, 2009 in Daytona Beach, FL

Daytona. Fast, history making, dangerous, world-class, unforgiving, Mecca. A track where winning means everything and second place is the first loser. They started running on the famous sand beaches of Daytona in 1947. In February 1959, the first Daytona 500 was held on the brand new 2.5-mile superspeedway. In February 1988, the era of restrictor-plate racing was ushered in, as cars were run for the first time using horsepower-reducing carburetor restrictors. The plates are used exclusively at Daytona and Talladega.

Saturday night racing is back as Sprint Cup drivers take to the high-banked, high-speed, high-drama action that has so personified Daytona over the years. This race features 160 laps of tight racing in what should prove to be yet another wild Daytona classic.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and the only other restrictor-plate track, Talladega, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Daytona.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 14 Tony Stewart
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 2 Kurt Busch
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6) 5 Mark Martin
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 48 Jimmie Johnson
9) 17 Matt Kenseth
10) 6 David Ragan
11) 9 Kasey Kahne
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 19 Elliott Sadler
14) 99 Carl Edwards
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 83 Brian Vickers
17) 11 Denny Hamlin
18) 09 Brad Keselowski
19) 47 Marcos Ambrose
20) 07 Casey Mears
21) 20 Joey Logano
22) 31 Jeff Burton
23) 29 Kevin Harvick
24) 16 Greg Biffle
25) 7 Robby Gordon

Though not even halfway through the season, 2009 has seen 11 different race winners. That number is one short of the 12 different drivers who nabbed victory all of last season.

But the list of drivers who have yet to win this year is impressive: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Clint Bowyer. Almost all of them have had success at the high banks of Daytona, so it?s certainly possible that there will be 12 different race winners at the exact halfway point of the season.

The most likely candidate, statistically, is Earnhardt. A winner of two Daytona races, Earnhardt has finished in the top 10 in 11 of his 19 races there. Since 2005, he has racked up some of the most impressive statistics in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Over the last nine Daytona races, Earnhardt has a Driver Rating of 91.9 (fifth-best), an Average Running Position of 13.6 (fifth), 46 Fastest Laps Run (third) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 68.1% (sixth).

Harvick is also an intriguing choice at Daytona. Winner of the 2007 Daytona 500, Harvick is suffering a career-worst season, and needs a strong Daytona finish for a return to prominence. After winning the preseason Budweiser Shootout and finishing second in the Daytona 500, Harvick?s season went downhill fast. He is currently mired in a slump that has seen 13 consecutive finishes outside the top 10. Harvick does have strong numbers at Daytona, though. Over the past nine Daytona races, Harvick has a Driver Rating of 83.5 (11th-best), 1,804 Green Flag Passes (second) and a series-high 53 Fastest Laps Run.

Also watch for a strong run from Newman, the 2008 Daytona 500 champion. Also struggling through a slump (though his is much shorter than Harvick?s), Newman has failed to crack the top 10 in the last three races. All season long, though, Newman has seemed on the edge of victory, finishing in the top 10 in eight of the 17 races. That win may come at Daytona, where Newman has a Driver Rating of 89.1 (eighth-best), an Average Running Position of 15.4 (eighth), 37 Fastest Laps Run (eighth) and an average Green Flag Speed of 185.212 mph (third).

Edwards? absence from Victory Lane this season might be the biggest head-scratcher of them all. After winning a series-high nine races last season, Edwards has navigated an inconsistent season in 2009. Along with four top fives and eight top 10s, Edwards also has four finishes outside to top 20. This weekend, he?ll look for the Daytona victory that eluded him by inches last season. In last season?s July race, Kyle Busch?s front bumper barely edged Edwards when the yellow flag came out during a green-white-checkered restart. So, Edwards should be considered a favorite at Daytona. He has a Driver Rating of 80.7, an Average Running Position of 17.1 and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 56.5%.

Double-File Restarts
The advent of ?Double-File Restarts ? Shootout Style? in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has been greeted enthusiastically thus far as an obvious boon to competition. Enthusiasm will get a further boost Saturday night when the series uses them at Daytona. Double-file restarts replace the previous approach of having lead-lap cars in one row on the outside and lapped cars in the other row alongside.

?I?m a big fan of this double-file restart stuff,? said Tony Stewart. ?It?s so much fun restarting with the guys that you?re racing with and are used to running up front with and not having to deal with some of these other guys on the restarts that you sometimes have to deal with.?

Daytona?s high banks bring the added element of restrictor-plate racing, which Greg Biffle says will mix well with the new restarts. ?I think restrictor plate racing will be the biggest beneficiary of double-file restarts,? Biffle said. ?We?re already racing two-wide and three-wide all the time already, why not start them two-wide. It totally makes sense.?

SELECTED DAYTONA DRIVER STATS
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.2
? Average Running Position of 12.8, fourth-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 104.4
? 46 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.134 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,119 Laps in the Top 15 (69.9%), fifth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 18.4
? Average Running Position of 11.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 100.1, second-best
? Series-high 1,203 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%)
? 1,108 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Eight top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 17.9
? Average Running Position of 15.5, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.8, seventh-best
? 1,006 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), eighth-most
? 1,014 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Six wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 11.6, second-best
? Driver Rating of 95.6, third-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.238 mph, second-fastest
? 1,126 Laps in the Top 15 (70.3%), fourth-most
? 1,014 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.3
? Average Running Position of 13.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.9, fifth-best
? 46 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.118 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,091 Laps in the Top 15 (68.1%), sixth-most
? 1,031 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
? Nine top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.7
? Average Running Position of 15.8, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 85.7, 10th-best
? 1,003 Laps in the Top 15 (62.6%), ninth-most
? 976 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios Chevrolet)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 11.1
? Average Running Position of 15.8, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 87.0, ninth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.098 mph, 11th-fastest

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 15.0
? Series-best Average Running Position of 11.0
? Driver Rating of 91.8, sixth-best
? 1,553 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.201 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,172 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2%), second-most
? 1,131 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Carhart Ford)
? One win, three top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 18.4
? Average Running Position of 14.1, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.1, fourth-best
? 47 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.203 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,128 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), third-most
? Series-high 1,167 Quality Passes

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? One win, two top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 21.0
? Average Running Position of 15.4, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, eighth-best
? 37 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 1,595 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 185.212 mph, third-fastest
? 1,026 Laps in the Top 15 (64.0%), seventh-most
? 1,077 Quality Passes, fifth-most

DAYTONA HIGHLIGHTS
? Groundbreaking for Daytona International Speedway was on November 25, 1957.
? Lee Petty won the inaugural Daytona 500 on Feb. 22, 1959.
? Fireball Roberts won the first 400-mile race at Daytona, in 1963.
? Richard Petty leads all drivers in victories at Daytona with 10, earning his 200th career race on July 4, 1984 at Daytona.
? Jeff Gordon has six victories at Daytona, more than any other active driver.
? The Wood Brothers have won 14 races at Daytona, more than any other car owner.
? Fifteen full-length races at Daytona have been won from the pole. Thirteen have been won from the second starting position ? a total of 28 race winners from the front row.
? A driver has swept both races at Daytona only four times, most recently by Bobby Allison in 1982.
? Matt Kenseth won this season?s Daytona 500 from 39th, the deepest in the field that a Daytona race winner has started.

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