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Darlington Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Showtime Southern 500
THE PLACE: Darlington Raceway
GREEN FLAG: Saturday, May 7, 2011 – 7:45pm/et, 6:45pm/ct

“Lady in Black”, “The Track Too Tough to Tame” and “The Darlington Stripe” all are nicknames and slogans befitting of NASCAR’s first superspeedway. Built in 1950, the history and tradition here can only be compared to the likes of Yankee Stadium, the Rose Bowl, and of course, historic Lambeau Field. Darlington Raceway has a distinctive egg-shaped design, with turns one and two being fundamentally different from turns three and four. It was constructed this way due to a concession to the original landowner who didn’t want his nearby minnow pond disturbed. This situation makes it very challenging for the crews to set up their cars’ handling in a way that will be effective at both ends. Drivers will circuit this 25-degree, 1.366-mile track 367 times in this weekends Showtime Southern 500.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 22 Kurt Busch
4) 18 Kyle Busch
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 17 Matt Kenseth
7) 99 Carl Edwards
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 33 Clint Bowyer
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 16 Greg Biffle
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 29 Kevin Harvick
14) 39 Ryan Newman
15) 4 Kasey Kahne
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 1 Jamie McMurray
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
20) 6 David Ragan
21) 27 Paul Menard
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
25) 9 Marcos Ambrose

DARLINGTON DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 6.6
• Average Running Position of 9.8, third-best
• Driver Rating of 109.1, third-best
• 140 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 251 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.473 mph, third-fastest
• 1,391 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), ninth-most
• 161 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s / KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 9.3
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, fourth-best
• 147 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 308 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.468 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,602 Laps in the Top 15 (72.7%), fifth-most
• 163 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Wrigley Toyota)
• One win, one top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 18.2
• Average Running Position of 11.5, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.2, sixth-best
• 101 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 315 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.302 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,744 Laps in the Top 15 (79.1%), third-most
• Series-high 217 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger/AARP Chevrolet)
• Seven wins, 18 top fives, 21 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.8
• Series-best Driver Rating of 117.6
• 162 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 158.720 mph
• Series-high 2,050 Laps in the Top 15 (93.0%)
• 191 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• One top five, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.7
• Average Running Position of 14.2, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.8, 12th-best
• 65 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 343 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• 1,305 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), 12th-most
• 147 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 ORTHO Ford)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 15.6
• Driver Rating of 87.0, 13th-best
• 81 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 332 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 157.828 mph, 11th-fastest
• 1,266 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), 13th-most
• 175 Quality Passes, third-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST / GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 17 top fives, 26 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 12.1
• Average Running Position of 13.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.1, 10th-best
• 291 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 157.880 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,506 Laps in the Top 15 (68.3%), seventh-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Valvoline Ford)
• Two wins, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 9.7, second-best
• Driver Rating of 113.8, second-best
• Series-high 252 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.528 mph, second-fastest
• 1,658 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fourth-most
• 165 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 16 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.4
• Average Running Position of 13.2, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.8, 11th-best
• 342 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 157.875 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,491 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), eighth-most
• 174 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 10.8, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.9, fifth-best
• 52 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.371 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,776 Laps in the Top 15 (80.5%), second-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• Two top fives, two top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 15.9
• Average Running Position of 13.4, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.3, ninth-best
• 103 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 157.809 mph, 13th-fastest

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Sugar-Free / National Guard Chevrolet)
• Three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.3
• Average Running Position of 11.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
• 56 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 321 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 157.865 mph, 10th-fastest
• 1,507 Laps in the Top 15 (68.3%), sixth-most
• 172 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.3, seventh-best
• 70 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 307 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 158.305 mph, sixth-fastest
• 150 Quality Passes, 11th-most

DARLINGTON RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers in victories with seven.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won 13 races at Darlington, more than any other organization.
• 19 races at Darlington have been won from the pole, the most productive starting position.
• Darlington is the site of one of the closest race finishes in NASCAR history. Ricky Craven edged Kurt Busch by 0.002 seconds on March 16, 2003 – which is tied with Talladega (April 17, 2011) as the closest margin of victory since NASCAR instituted electronic timing in 1993.

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