RacingNation.com

Darlington Fantasy Forecast

DARLINGTON RACEWAY
Showtime Southern 500
Saturday May 8, 2010 in Darlington, SC

“Lady in Black”, “The Track Too Tough to Tame” and “The Darlington Stripe” all are nicknames and slogans befitting of NASCAR’s first superspeedway. Built in 1950, the history and tradition here can only be compared to the likes of Yankee Stadium, the Rose Bowl, and of course, historic Lambeau Field. This is the track where NASCAR posted its widest margin of victory when Ned Jarrett bested Buck Baker by 14 laps in the 1965 Southern 500 – and the narrowest margin of victory when Ricky Craven edged Kurt Busch by 2 thousandths of a second in a thrilling finish to the 2003 Carolina Dodge Dealers 400. This is the track where Bill Elliott became ‘Million Dollar Bill’ after winning the 1985 Southern 500, NASCAR’s biggest paycheck at that time. And this is the track where a victory trophy is earned and revered.

Darlington Raceway has a distinctive egg-shaped design, with turns one and two being fundamentally different from turns three and four. It was constructed this way due to a concession to the original landowner who didn’t want his nearby minnow pond disturbed. This situation makes it very challenging for the crews to set up their cars’ handling in a way that will be effective at both ends. Drivers will circuit this 25-degree, 1.366-mile track 367 times in this weekends Showtime Southern 500.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 39 Ryan Newman
7) 5 Mark Martin
8) 2 Kurt Busch
9) 29 Kevin Harvick
10) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
11) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 99 Carl Edwards
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 14 Tony Stewart
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 33 Clint Bowyer
18) 9 Kasey Kahne
19) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
20) 6 David Ragan
21) 1 Jamie McMurray
22) 12 Brad Keselowski
23) 20 Joey Logano
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 19 Elliott Sadler

DARLINGTON DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Seven wins, 17 top fives, 20 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 11.3
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
? Driver Rating of 114.4, second-best
? 93 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 157.228 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 1,683 Laps in the Top 15 (91.6%)
? 163 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 6.9
? Average Running Position of 7.6, second-best
? Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
? 145 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 240 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 157.239 mph, second-fastest
? 1,561 Laps in the Top 15 (84.9%), third-most
? 146 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, one top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 20.4
? Average Running Position of 11.8, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
? 77 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 243 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.856 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,444 Laps in the Top 15 (78.6%), fourth-most
? 173 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? One top five, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.0
? Average Running Position of 13.8, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.2, 13th-best
? 64 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 287 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 1,077 Laps in the Top 15 (58.6%), 10th-most
? 123 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx/March of Dimes Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 8.0
? Average Running Position of 11.4, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 102.7, fourth-best
? 106 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 222 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.878 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,024 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), 12th-most
? 132 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
? Six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.5
? Average Running Position of 10.9, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 100.7, fifth-best
? 52 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 157.070 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,439 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%), fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 17 top fives, 26 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 13.1, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.9, 10th-best
? 256 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.547 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,297 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6%), seventh-most
? 110 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 11.3
? Average Running Position of 11.6, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.8, seventh-best
? 53 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 238 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.917 mph, fifth-fastest
? 137 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 SUBWAY Ford)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 15.7
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.9, 10th-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 289 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.753 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,236 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), eighth-most
? Series-high 174 Quality Passes

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two wins, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.0
? Average Running Position of 7.6, third-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 123.1
? Series-high 251 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 157.416 mph
? 1,635 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%), second-most
? 157 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Three top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 15.1
? Average Running Position of 11.0, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.1, ninth-best
? 45 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 267 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
? 1,371 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6%), sixth-most
? 154 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? Two top fives, two top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.6, 12th-best
? 79 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 1,020 Laps in the Top 15 (55.5%), 13th-most

Joey Logano (No. 20 The Home Depot Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 9.0
? Average Running Position of 9.1, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.8, sixth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 156.877 mph, seventh-fastest

DARLINGTON RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Built as a 1.25-mile paved superspeedway in 1949-50, Darlington Raceway hosted the first 500-mile race in NASCAR history and the first on asphalt on Sept. 4, 1950.
? The track was re-measured to 1.375 miles in 1953, and 1.366 miles in 1970.
? There have been 106 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Darlington Raceway since the track opened in 1950.
? Johnny Mantz won the first race, in 1950.
? David Pearson leads all drivers with 12 poles at Darlington.
? 43 drivers have won races at Darlington; 25 drivers have won more than once there.
? David Pearson leads all drivers with 10 victories, followed by Dale Earnhardt with nine.
? Jeff Gordon is third overall and leads all active drivers with seven victories.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won 12 races at Darlington, more than any other organization. He broke a tie with Junior Johnson when Jeff Gordon won there in 2007.
? 19 races at Darlington have been won from the pole, the most productive starting position.

Share Button