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Cup Corner – Dover Fantasy Forecast

DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks, Sunday June 1, 2008

This Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event at Dover is far from your ordinary race. The “Best Buy 400 benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks” benefits a worthy cause in raising autism awareness. Elliott Sadler (No. 19 Best Buy Dodge), fresh off of a solid 8th-place finish at the Coca-Cola 600, will sport an Autism Speaks themed car this weekend.

This is the first of two annual visits that NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will make to the Monster Mile in Dover Delaware. 400 laps are on tap at this tough, fast, high-banked (24 degrees), concrete oval. The King Richard Petty won the first Cup series race at Dover International Speedway in 1969, and this track has been thrilling fans with exciting action-packed racing ever since.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track over the last several years, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 8 Mark Martin
3) 16 Greg Biffle
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 31 Jeff Burton
6) 48 Jimmie Johnson
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 07 Clint Bowyer
9) 24 Jeff Gordon
10) 17 Matt Kenseth
11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12) 12 Ryan Newman
13) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 6 David Ragan
15) 9 Kasey Kahne
16) 19 Elliott Sadler
17) 2 Kurt Busch
18) 20 Tony Stewart
19) 26 Jamie McMurray
20) 5 Casey Mears

Dover’s high-banked one-mile concrete racing surface that has been likened to 400 laps of racing in a concrete cereal bowl has earned it the moniker of “The Monster Mile.” This Sunday’s race is considered to be one of the most challenging on the series circuit and fresh off the heels of last week’s 600-miler at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, poses yet another endurance test race teams.

Dover is celebrating its 40th anniversary season this year. Earlier this month, plans for Phase II of the track’s “Monster Makeover” Capital Improvement project were unveiled, including the dedication ceremony for the new 46-foot Monster Monument at Victory Plaza. Four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jeff Gordon was on hand for the festivities. “It’s an amazing monument and it really symbolizes what this track is all about to the drivers and the fans,” said Gordon, who has won four times at Dover. “The Monster Mile brings out the monster in all of us. It’s a grueling, fast race track that is very, very tough.” Bobby Allison, a seven-time Dover winner, will be the first driver honored with a marquee plaque on the Monster Monument in a special ceremony scheduled for Saturday, May 31 at Victory Plaza.

SELECTED DOVER DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Four top fives
? Average finish of 11.8
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 101.5, fifth-best
? 104 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 243 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.925, third-fastest
? 1,659 (69.0%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 137 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Mark Martin (No. 8 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 20 top fives, 27 top 10s
? 12.7 average finish
? Average Running Position of 8.4, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.4, third-best
? 174 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.907, fourth-fastest
? 2,062 (85.8%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 140 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
? Series-best Driver Rating of 113.7
? 190 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 142.061, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,251 (93.6%) Laps in the Top 15
? 180 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green), second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 15.8
? Average Running Position of 11.6, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.9, eighth-best
? 158 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 226 Green Flag Passes, tied for 10th-most
? 144 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 13.0, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.5, fourth-best
? 168 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
? 262 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? 1,651 (68.7%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Jack Daniel’s Chevrolet)
? Two top 10s
? Average finish of 11.3
? Average Running Position of 10.7, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, 10th-best
? 1,265 (79.1%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best percentage
? 119 Quality Passes (average of 29.8 per race), third-best percentage

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s
? 15.3 average finish
? Average Running Position of 7.2, second-best
? Driver Rating of 111.9, second-best
? Series-high 222 Fastest Laps Run
? Fastest Green Flag Speed of 142.122
? 2,188 (91.0%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? Series-high 186 Quality Passes

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
? One win, two top 10s
? 10.5 average finish
? Average Running Position of 11.0, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 100.2, seventh-best
? 129 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 1,186 (74.1%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-best percentage
? 113 Quality Passes (average of 28.3 per race), fourth-best average

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? 20.7 average finish
? Average Running Position of 9.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, ninth-best
? 94 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 141.743 mph, seventh-most
? 1,925 (80.1%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 146 Quality Passes, third-most

DOVER HIGHLIGHTS
? Dover Downs International Speedway opened in 1969. The track was renamed to Dover International Speedway in 2002.
? The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
? The first two races at Dover were 300 miles. The race length was changed to 500 miles in 1971 and then to 400 miles in 1997.
? Mark Martin and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
? Bobby Allison and Richard Petty lead all drivers, each with seven victories.
? Bill Elliott, Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon lead all active drivers, each with four victories.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other organization.
? 44 races have been won from a top-five starting position while only 17 races, including the past four, have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? When Ryan Newman won in 2003, it marked Dodge’s first victory there since 1975.

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