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Chicagoland Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Geico 400
THE PLACE: Chicagoland Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, September 18, 2011 – 2:16pm/et, 1:16pm/ct

Chicagoland Speedway joined the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule in 2001 making it the youngest track on the circuit. In 2011, the track’s traditional July date moves to September as the opening race in the 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship. The track’s surface has matured over the years, allowing for exciting multi-groove racing on this 18-degree, 1.5 mile, cookie cutter tri-oval.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 24 Jeff Gordon
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 14 Tony Stewart
5) 2 Brad Keselowski
6) 18 Kyle Busch
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 17 Matt Kenseth
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 22 Kurt Busch
11) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
12) 39 Ryan Newman
13) 29 Kevin Harvick
14) 6 David Ragan
15) 00 David Reutimann
16) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
17) 5 Mark Martin
18) 16 Greg Biffle
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 83 Brian Vickers
22) 33 Clint Bowyer
23) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
24) 31 Jeff Burton
25) 20 Joey Logano

CHICAGOLAND DRIVER STATS
1 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Wrigley Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5 in six races
• Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 98.3, seventh-best
• 73 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 320 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.567 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,031 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), seventh-most
• 154 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

2 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.2 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.5, sixth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.847 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,162 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), fourth-most
• 141 Quality Passes, 11th-most

3 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 8.6 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 9.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.7, fifth-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.704 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,332 Laps in the Top 15 (83.0%), second-most
• Series-high 231 Quality Passes

4 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 11.4 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 11.7, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
• 156 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.063 mph, third-fastest
• 1,052 Laps in the Top 15 (65.5%), fifth-most
• 160 Quality Passes, eighth-most

5 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 18.3 in six races
• Average Running Position of 16.8, 16th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.4, 10th-best
• 93 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 985 Laps in the Top 15 (61.4%), eighth-most
• 187 Quality Passes, third-most

6 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s / Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.0 in nine races
• Average Running Position of 8.4, third-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 112.0
• Series-high 187 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 168.376 mph
• 1,326 Laps in the Top 15 (82.6%), third-most
• 169 Quality Passes, fifth-most

7 – Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five top 10s
• Average finish of 18.1 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 15.5, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 81.7, 16th-best
• 350 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 933 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), 11th-most
• 156 Quality Passes, ninth-most

8 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Medical Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.8 in nine races
• Average Running Position of 17.2, 17th-best
• Driver Rating of 76.7, 19th-best
• 336 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most

9 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot / Mobil 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 9.5 in 10 races
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.4
• Driver Rating of 110.4, second-best
• 124 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.340 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 1,446 Laps in the Top 15 (90.1%)
• 196 Quality Passes, second-most

10 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy / National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 16.0 in 10 races
• Average Running Position of 13.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.9, 11th-best
• 61 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 337 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• 1,046 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), sixth-most
• 179 Quality Passes, fourth-most

11 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Average finish of 25.0 in two races
• Average Running Position of 20.9, 23rd-best
• Driver Rating of 65.5, 28th-best

12 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 16.8 in five races
• Average Running Position of 16.7, 15th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.7, 12th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.496 mph, eighth-fastest
• 902 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4%), 13th-most
• 164 Quality Passes, seventh-most

CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Kevin Harvick won the first Chicagoland race in 2001.
• Kyle Busch won the 2008 race from the pole, the first time a driver won from the pole. It was also the only time a driver had won from a top-five starting position.
• Jeff Gordon (8.6), Jimmie Johnson (10.0), Tony Stewart (9.5) and Brian Vickers (8.8) are active drivers who average a top-10 finish.
• Five of the last six races have ended with a margin of victory under one second.

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