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Charlotte Fantasy Forecast

CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Coca Cola 600
Sunday May 30, 2010 in Concord, NC

The longest race of the Sprint Cup circuit is on tap this Sunday as drivers attempt to tame Charlotte Motor Speedway in the annual Coca Cola 600. This Memorial Weekend tradition will feature 400 laps of high-speed action on this 24 degree, 1.5-mile quad-oval. They talk of Bristol being like a big fish bowl. Well Charlotte Motor Speedway is like Bristol on steroids. The track is sunk deep, and the stands that encircle the track from turn four to the middle of the backstretch afford spectacular views of racing action from virtually every seat.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 9 Kasey Kahne
6) 2 Kurt Busch
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 31 Jeff Burton
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 99 Carl Edwards
13) 39 Ryan Newman
14) 16 Greg Biffle
15) 00 David Reutimann
16) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
17) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 33 Clint Bowyer
21) 12 Brad Keselowski
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 83 Casey Mears
25) 6 David Ragan

CHARLOTTE DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 19.0
? Average Running Position of 10.9, third-best
? Driver Rating of 104.4, second-best
? 234 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 589 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 176.025 mph, second-fastest
? 2,717 Laps in the Top 15 (77.6%), second-most
? 468 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Memorial Day Tribute Chevrolet)
? Six wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 8.6
? Series-best Average Running Position of 6.6
? Series-best Driver Rating of 118.9
? Series-high 363 Fastest Laps Run
? 636 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 176.372 mph
? Series-high 3,194 Laps in the Top 15 (91.2%)
? Series-high 506 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Jeremiah Weed Ford)
? One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 15.6
? Average Running Position of 16.7, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.5, sixth-best
? 108 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.969 mph, 13th-fastest
? 2,024 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8%), seventh-most
? 306 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Stars & Stripes Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 16 top fives, 19 top 10s; seven poles
? Average finish of 15.7
? Average Running Position of 17.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.5, sixth-best
? 147 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.298 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,854 Laps in the Top 15 (52.9%), 10th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser/Armed Forces Tribute Ford)
? Three wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 11.6
? Average Running Position of 11.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.1, third-best
? 315 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 686 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 2,320 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), fourth-most
? 424 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)
? Three top 10s
? Average finish of 18.6
? Average Running Position of 15.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 82.6, 13th-best
? 74 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 1,925 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), ninth-most
? 287 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 16.2, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 84.2, 12th-best
? 142 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 599 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.349 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,948 Laps in the Top 15 (55.6%), eighth-most
? 306 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 14.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.5, 10th-best
? 73 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 634 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.989 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,082 Laps in the Top 15 (59.5%), fifth-most
? 360 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST Auto Parts/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 17 top fives, 22 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 16.0
? Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.2, fifth-best
? 567 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.363 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,546 Laps in the Top 15 (72.7%), third-most
? 363 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Grubb Ford)
? Four top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9
? Driver Rating of 85.2, 11th-best
? 690 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? 1,741 Laps in the Top 15 (49.7%), 12th-most
? 297 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M NEXCARE Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.2
? Average Running Position of 16.4, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, ninth-best
? 112 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.320 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,053 Laps in the Top 15 (58.6%), sixth-most
? 301 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), ninth-most

Joey Logano (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 7.0
? Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
? Driver Rating of 101.0, fourth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.742 mph, third-fastest

CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? The track name changed from Charlotte Motor Speedway to Lowe’s Motor Speedway in 1999. It changed back to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the 2010 season.
? David Pearson posted 11 straight poles at Charlotte from the fall of 1973 through 1978.

? Ryan Newman leads all active drivers in poles, with eight. Jeff Gordon has seven.
? Jeff Gordon won five straight poles for the spring races between 1994 and 1998.
? 42 drivers have won races, led by Bobby Allison, Darrell Waltrip and Jimmie Johnson, with six each. David Reutimann became a first-time series winner last May after winning the Coca-Cola 600.
? Joe Lee Johnson won the first race, in 1960.
? There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three consecutive by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
? A sweep has occurred eight times, including each season from 2004-2007.
? 14 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson last October.
? Jimmie Johnson is the only driver with more than two Charlotte races to average top-10 finishes (8.6). He has the all-time best average finish among drivers with at least five races.
? A number of active drivers earned their first win at CMS: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears and David Reutimann.

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