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Charlotte Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Coca Cola 600
THE PLACE: Charlotte Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, May 29, 2011 – 6:15pm/et, 5:15/ct

The longest race of the Sprint Cup circuit is on tap this Sunday as drivers attempt to tame Charlotte Motor Speedway in the annual Coca Cola 600. This Memorial Weekend tradition will feature 400 laps of high-speed action on this 24 degree, 1.5-mile quad-oval. They talk of Bristol being like a big fish bowl. Well Charlotte Motor Speedway is like Bristol on steroids. The track is sunk deep, and the stands that encircle the track from turn four to the middle of the backstretch afford spectacular views of racing action from virtually every seat.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 4 Kasey Kahne
7) 16 Greg Biffle
8) 22 Kurt Busch
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 33 Clint Bowyer
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 20 Joey Logano
13) 1 Jamie McMurray
14) 00 David Reutimann
15) 29 Kevin Harvick
16) 39 Ryan Newman
17) 24 Jeff Gordon
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 31 Jeff Burton
20) 6 David Ragan
21) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) 83 Brian Vickers
23) 2 Brad Keselowski
24) 9 Marcos Ambrose
25) 78 Regan Smith

CHARLOTTE DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.6
• Average Running Position of 10.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 108.2, second-best
• 343 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 751 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.771 mph, second-fastest
• 3,339 Laps in the Top 15 (78.8%), second-most
• Series-high 598 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Jeremiah Weed Ford)
• One win, six top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.0
• Average Running Position of 16.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.4, sixth-best
• 133 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 803 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.729 mph, 10th-fastest
• 2,522 Laps in the Top 15 (59.5%), sixth-most
• 458 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 9.8
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
• Series-best Driver Rating of 114.7
• Series-high 412 Fastest Laps Run
• 792 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 175.920 mph
• Series-high 3,606 Laps in the Top 15 (85.1%)
• 586 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 17.4, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 84.3, 13th-best
• Series-high 911 Green Flag Passes
• 2,090 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3%), 12th-most
• 400 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 15.2, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 84.3, 12th-best
• 97 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 2,407 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), eighth-most
• 406 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• Three wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5
• Average Running Position of 13.5, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.7, fourth-best
• 322 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 867 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.649 mph, 11th-fastest
• 2,537 Laps in the Top 15 (59.9%), fifth-most
• 485 Quality Passes, third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 18.3
• Average Running Position of 16.0, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 86.6, 10th-best
• 129 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 751 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.901 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,494 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), seventh-most
• 409 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• One win, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 20.4
• Driver Rating of 84.6, 11th-best
• 163 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 2,253 Laps in the Top 15 (53.2%), 10th-most
• 373 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 18 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 15.7
• Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.6, fifth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.110 mph, fourth-fastest
• 3,145 Laps in the Top 15 (74.2%), third-most
• 451 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Joey Logano (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 8.5
• Average Running Position of 9.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, third-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.463 mph, third-fastest

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 16 top fives, 20 top 10s; eight poles
• Average finish of 15.6
• Average Running Position of 16.4, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.9, seventh-best
• 160 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.963 mph, seventh-fastest
• 2,347 Laps in the Top 15 (55.4%), ninth-most
• 380 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 15.2
• Average Running Position of 14.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 87.3, ninth-best
• 92 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 802 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.744 mph, ninth-fastest
• 2,575 Laps in the Top 15 (60.8%), fourth-most
• 483 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• Two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 23.5
• Driver Rating of 88.0, eighth-best
• 193 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.993 mph, fifth-fastest

CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Ryan Newman leads all active drivers in poles, with nine. Jeff Gordon has eight.
• 43 drivers have won races, led by Bobby Allison, Darrell Waltrip and Jimmie Johnson, with six each.
• Joe Lee Johnson won the first race, in 1960.
• There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three consecutive by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
• A sweep has occurred eight times, including each season from 2004-2007.
• 14 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson (October 2009).
• Joey Logano is one of two drivers with more than two Charlotte races to average top-10 finishes (8.5); Jimmie Johnson is the other, with an average finish of 9.8.
• A number of active drivers earned their first win at CMS: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears and David Reutimann.

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