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California Fantasy Forecast

CUP CORNER
AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY, FONTANA, CA
Auto Club 500
Sunday, February 21, 2010 in Fontana, CA

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana this weekend for the running of the Auto Club 500. This classic D-shaped oval stretches two miles in length, with 14 degrees of banking on the corners and 11 degrees on the sweeping front stretch. Its 75-foot wide track plus 15 foot apron provides ample room for passing. Drivers will race 250 laps en route to the checkered flag.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 99 Carl Edwards
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 11 Denny Hamlin
6) 16 Greg Biffle
7) 5 Mark Martin
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 2 Kurt Busch
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 33 Clint Bowyer
12) 83 Brian Vickers
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 14 Tony Stewart
15) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
17) 9 Kasey Kahne
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 6 David Ragan
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 1 Jamie McMurray
22) 39 Ryan Newman
23) 90 Casey Mears
24) 20 Joey Logano
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

In each of the last four season-openers, Jimmie Johnson has begun his title defense with a stinker. Johnson’s Daytona 500 clunkers haven’t seemed to phase him all that much. In 2007, Johnson finished 39th in the 500. In 2008, he finished 27th. Last year he was 31st, and this year he finished 35th. But his medicine seems to come one week later at Auto Club Speedway, where he has finished in the top five in two of the last three races, and has been the class of the field at Fontana practically every race since 2007.

In the last six ACS races, Johnson has three wins, a Driver Rating of 134.7, an Average Running Position of 3.4, 619 Laps Led and 347 Fastest Laps Run. He has led at least 31 laps in every race since 2007. In one race, dominance morphed into perfection. In the summer race of 2008, Johnson scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150, posting an Average Running Position of 1.2 and leading 228 of the 250 laps. It was Johnson’s first perfect Driver Rating, and he has since scored another one, at the May Dover race last season.

Last year, Matt Kenseth followed up his Daytona 500 triumph by winning the Auto Club 500. Kenseth, the 2003 series champion, hasn’t won since. But if ever the stage was set for ending a drought, this is it: Kenseth has won three of the last four February races at Auto Club Speedway. Kenseth finished eighth in the Daytona 500. “We got lucky,” he said. …

SELECTED FONTANA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Four wins, nine top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 5.8
? Series-best Average Running Position of 5.5
? Series-best Driver Rating of 122.3
? Series-high 382 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.025 mph
? Series-high 2,380 Laps in the Top 15 (95.0%)
? 479 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 6.6
? Average Running Position of 10.8, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.3, third-best
? 140 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.448 mph, second-fastest
? 1,983 Laps in the Top 15 (79.2%), fourth-most
? 456 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Three wins, 10 top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 10.5
? Average Running Position of 9.3, third-best
? Driver Rating of 100.3, fifth-best
? 161 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 744 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.306 mph, fifth-fastest
? 1,984 Laps in the Top 15 (79.2%), third-most
? Series-high 512 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Three wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.3
? Average Running Position of 9.0, second-best
? Driver Rating of 109.7, second-best
? 117 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.410 mph, third-fastest
? 2,056 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%), second-most
? 413 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.9
? Average Running Position of 14.5, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.7, 11th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.980 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,324 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), 13th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? One win, four top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 17.3
? Average Running Position of 11.0, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 99.8, sixth-best
? 207 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.326 mph, fourth-fastest
? 1,818 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6%), seventh-most
? 388 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 14.3
? Average Running Position of 10.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.4, eighth-best
? 91 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.212 mph, seventh-fastest
? 1,490 Laps in the Top 15 (74.3%), 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.5
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.9, fourth-best
? 124 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 712 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.214 mph, sixth-fastest
? 1,909 Laps in the Top 15 (76.2%), fifth-most
? 470 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 94.1, 10th-best
? 86 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 710 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.951 mph, 11th-fastest
? 1,808 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2%), eighth-most
? 448 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One top five, five top 10s
? Average finish of 18.7
? Average Running Position of 13.4, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.0, 12th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.780 mph, 13th-fastest
? 1,763 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), ninth-most
? 403 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.4
? Average Running Position of 15.1, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 83.5, 13th-best
? 55 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 776 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 1,465 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5%), 12th-most
? 454 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Four top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 15.2
? Average Running Position of 11.3, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.6, seventh-best
? 134 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 721 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.154 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,857 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), sixth-most
? 489 Quality Passes, second-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? One win, three top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 13.8, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.8, ninth-best
? 96 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 733 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.026 mph, ninth-fastest
? 1,633 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), 10th-most
? 437 Quality Passes, eighth-most

FONTANA HIGHLIGHTS
? There have been 19 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Auto Club Speedway since the track opened in 1997.
? Four drivers have competed in all 19 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
? There have been 13 different pole winners, led by Kurt Busch (three). Brian Vickers and Jeff Gordon each have two poles.
? Twelve different drivers have posted victories. Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with four wins. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth each have won three races.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other team.
? Nine of the 19 races were won from starting positions outside the top 10; only one has been won from the pole (Jimmie Johnson in 2008). The most prolific starting position is third, with three victories.
? Matt Kenseth won the 2006 spring race from the 31st starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
? Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (6.6), Jimmie Johnson (5.8) and Matt Kenseth (9.3).
? Kyle Busch won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole (2/05) and first race (9/05) at ACS.
? Jimmie Johnson won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at ACS on April 28, 2002.

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