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Bristol Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Irwin Tools Night Race
THE PLACE: Bristol Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Saturday, August 27, 2011 – 7:43pm/et, 6:43/ct

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will engage in old-fashioned “Saturday night stock car racing at the short track” this weekend, with the annual late-summer visit to Bristol Motor Speedway. The hair-raising, temper-flaring, crash-inducing nature of Bristol will test driver’s patience to the fullest. But perhaps the most critical nature of this event is that the drivers must be mentally alert every foot of every lap for 500 laps. You cannot just coast around, run your laps on your time, and expect to finish in one piece. You relax, you crash.

This is the second and final appearance at Bristol this year. Bristol ran the first of many legendary Cup races on July 30th, 1961, and has been thrilling fans ever since. Dubbed the “World’s Fastest Half Mile”, this track boasts 36 degrees of banking in the turns and 16 degrees on the straightaways.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 39 Ryan Newman
5) 99 Carl Edwards
6) 17 Matt Kenseth
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 5 Mark Martin
9) 2 Brad Keselowski
10) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11) 29 Kevin Harvick
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 22 Kurt Busch
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 4 Kasey Kahne
17) 1 Jamie McMurray
18) 14 Tony Stewart
19) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
20) 20 Joey Logano
21) 27 Paul Menard
22) 9 Marcos Ambrose
23) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
24) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
25) 6 David Ragan

BRISTOL DRIVER STATS
Greg Biffle (No. 16 Pure Michigan Ford)
• Six top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.6
• Average Running Position of 11.5, third-best
• Driver Rating of 99.4, second-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.460 mph, second-fastest
• 4,945 Laps in the Top 15 (75.9%), third-most
• 311 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.7
• Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.8, fifth-best
• 549 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.416 mph, third-fastest
• 4,712 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), fourth-most
• 321 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 8.7
• Average Running Position of 11.7, fourth-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 108.1
• Series-high 543 Fastest Laps Run
• 491 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.563 mph
• 4,445 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), fifth-most
• 272 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.5
• Average Running Position of 14.4, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.9, 12th-best
• Series-high 676 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.243 mph, 10th-fastest
• 3,842 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 10th-most
• 268 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 12.5
• Average Running Position of 13.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 91.7, eighth-best
• 267 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.269 mph, eighth-fastest
• 4,378 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Series-best Average Running Position of 9.9
• Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
• 201 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 483 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.379 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 5,277 Laps in the Top 15 (81.0%)
• 314 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
• Three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 16.3
• Driver Rating of 87.4, 13th-best
• 264 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 522 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.230 mph, 11th-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 13.4, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.8, seventh-best
• 232 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 603 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.373 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,975 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), ninth-most
• 227 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 15.4
• Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, ninth-best
• 355 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 4,380 Laps in the Top 15 (67.3%), sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Kroger Ford)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 11.2, second-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, fourth-best
• 260 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.357 mph, sixth-fastest
• 5,218 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), second-most
• Series-high 351 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 Carquest/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.0, 11th-best
• 178 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.250 mph, ninth-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 WIX Filters Chevrolet)
• One top five, 11 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 14.8, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• 519 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• 4,364 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), eighth-most
• 295 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.8, sixth-best
• 279 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.309 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,826 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), 11th-most
• 255 Quality Passes, ninth-most

BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Bristol was won by Jack Smith in 1961.
• Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.
• The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards, in the night race of 2008.
• 80 of 101 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots.
• The 2009 night race had a margin of victory of .098 seconds, the second-closest MOV at Bristol since the advent of electronic scoring in May of 1993.
• The last five Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.

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