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Bristol Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Jeff Byrd 500
THE PLACE: Bristol Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, March 20, 2011 – 1:13 pm EST, 12:13 CST

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to action March 20th with the Jeff Byrd 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway’s half-mile of high banks. Bristol ran the first of many legendary Cup races on July 30th, 1961, and has been thrilling fans ever since. This all-concrete, high-banked, high-speed track has been dubbed the “World’s Fastest Half Mile”.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 18 Kyle Busch
2) 11 Denny Hamlin
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 39 Ryan Newman
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 22 Kurt Busch
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
10) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11) 14 Tony Stewart
12) 5 Mark Martin
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 29 Kevin Harvick
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 9 Marcos Ambrose
17) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
18) 1 Jamie McMurray
19) 16 Greg Biffle
20) 4 Kasey Kahne
21) 2 Brad Keselowski
22) 00 David Reutimann
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 20 Joey Logano
25) 27 Paul Menard

BRISTOL DRIVER STATS
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Four wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 9.3
• Average Running Position of 12.5, fourth-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 106.0
• Series-high 481 Fastest Laps Run
• 462 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.469 mph
• 3,945 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), fifth-most
• 244 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• Three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.6
• Driver Rating of 91.8, seventh-best
• 262 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 488 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.371 mph, third-fastest

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Scotts Ford)
• Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.3
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.4, ninth-best
• 235 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 447 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• 3,878 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5%), eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
• One top five, 10 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.6
• Driver Rating of 87.9, 11th-best
• 452 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 3,906 Laps in the Top 15 (65.0%), sixth-most
• 250 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Pepsi MAX Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Series-best Average Running Position of 9.5
• Driver Rating of 98.7, third-best
• 189 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.337 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 4,899 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5%)
• 267 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.0
• Average Running Position of 12.7, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.9, fifth-best
• 475 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.336 mph, fifth-fastest
• 4,219 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), fourth-most
• 260 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s
• Average finish of 17.9
• Driver Rating of 87.5, 12th-best
• 219 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 532 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.176 mph, 11th-fastest
• 3,659 Laps in the Top 15 (60.9%), ninth-most
• 285 Quality Passes, second-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.5
• Average Running Position of 14.3, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• Series-high 615 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.200 mph, 10th-fastest
• 3,606 Laps in the Top 15 (60.0%), 10th-most
• 243 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.9
• Average Running Position of 14.2, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.8, sixth-best
• 277 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.270 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,476 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8%), 12th-most
• 230 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
• Average finish of 13.2
• Average Running Position of 14.6, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.4, 13th-best
• 160 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.174 mph, 13th-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.3
• Average Running Position of 13.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 89.8, eighth-best
• 185 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 552 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.285 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,544 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 11th-most
• 192 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.6
• Average Running Position of 11.0, second-best
• Driver Rating of 97.7, fourth-best
• 253 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.309 mph, sixth-fastest
• 4,848 Laps in the Top 15 (80.6%), second-most
• Series-high 297 Quality Passes

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Six top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.8
• Average Running Position of 11.5, third-best
• Driver Rating of 99.5, second-best
• 245 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 426 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.407 mph, second-fastest
• 4,574 Laps in the Top 15 (76.1%), third-most
• 274 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• There have been 100 NASCAR Sprint Cup races since the first race there in 1961.
• There have been 44 different pole winners, led by Cale Yarborough and Mark Martin (nine). Martin swept both poles at Bristol in 1995, 1996 and 2009.
• 38 different drivers have won, led by Darrell Waltrip (12).
• Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.
• The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards in the night race of 2008.
• 80 of 100 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots.
• Only one active driver averages a top-10 finish: Kyle Busch with a 9.3 average finish in 12 starts.
• Five of the last six Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.

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