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Bristol Fantasy Forecast

BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
IRWIN Tools Night Race
Saturday, August 21, 2010 in Bristol, TN

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will engage in old-fashioned “Saturday night stock car racing at the short track” this weekend, with the annual late-summer visit to Bristol Motor Speedway. The hair-raising, temper-flaring, crash-inducing nature of Bristol will test driver’s patience to the fullest. But perhaps the most critical nature of this event is that the drivers must be mentally alert every foot of every lap for 500 laps. You cannot just coast around, run your laps on your time, and expect to finish in one piece. You relax, you crash.

This is the second and final appearance at Bristol this year. Bristol ran the first of many legendary Cup races on July 30th, 1961, and has been thrilling fans ever since. Dubbed the “World’s Fastest Half Mile”, this track boasts 36 degrees of banking in the turns and 16 degrees on the straightaways.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 29 Kevin Harvick
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 16 Greg Biffle
9) 31 Jeff Burton
10) 39 Ryan Newman
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 2 Kurt Busch
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 1 Jamie McMurray
16) 17 Matt Kenseth
17) 47 Marcos Ambrose
18) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
19) 9 Kasey Kahne
20) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 12 Brad Keselowski
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
24) 00 David Reutimann
25) 6 David Ragan

BRISTOL DRIVER STATS
Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Bush’s-Kingsford Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 12.0, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.4, eighth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.251 mph, 10th-fastest

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Six top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 11.0
? Average Running Position of 11.1, second-best
? Driver Rating of 101.2, second-best
? 242 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.485 mph
? 4,407 Laps in the Top 15 (79.9%), second-most
? Series-high 251 Quality Passes

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s
? Average finish of 17.9
? Driver Rating of 88.3, 13th-best
? 215 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 461 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.225 mph, 12th-fastest
? 3,365 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), 10th-most
? 242 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
? Five wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.2
? Average Running Position of 12.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.1, fifth-best
? 217 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 411 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.379 mph, sixth-fastest
? 3,741 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), fourth-most
? 203 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Doublemint Toyota)
? Three wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 10.1
? Average Running Position of 13.3, seventh-best
? Series-best Driver Rating of 103.0
? Series-high 401 Fastest Laps Run
? 421 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.478 mph, second-fastest
? 3,483 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2%), sixth-most
? 215 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.4
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.1, 11th-best
? Series-high 538 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.250 mph, 11th-fastest
? 3,249 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 12th-most
? 213 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 11.7
? Series-best Average Running Position of 9.3
? Driver Rating of 99.4, third-best
? 174 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.383 mph, fifth-fastest
? Series-high 4,501 Laps in the Top 15 (81.6%)
? 232 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)
? Three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
? 238 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 422 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.450 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,864 Laps in the Top 15 (63.5%), 13th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.2
? Average Running Position of 13.4, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.5, ninth-best
? 181 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 469 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.351 mph, seventh-fastest
? 3,426 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), eighth-most
? 184 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
? Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.7
? Average Running Position of 11.1, third-best
? Driver Rating of 97.5, fourth-best
? 231 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.340 mph, eighth-fastest
? 4,402 Laps in the Top 15 (79.8%), third-most
? 241 Quality Passes, third-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 12 Penske Dodge)
? Average finish of 13.0
? Average Running Position of 11.3, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.7, 12th-best

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST Auto Parts/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
? Average finish of 12.9
? Average Running Position of 14.1, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.9, 10th-best
? 150 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.266 mph, ninth-fastest

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.5
? Average Running Position of 13.7, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.9, sixth-best
? 259 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.460 mph, third-fastest
? 3,349 Laps in the Top 15 (60.7%), 11th-most
? 225 Quality Passes, sixth-most

BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Jack Smith (with relief from Johnny Allen) in 1961.
? 38 different drivers have won, led by Darrell Waltrip (12).
? Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.
? The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards, in the night race of 2008.
? 80 of 99 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots.
? Last year’s night race had a margin of victory of .098 seconds, the second-closest MOV at Bristol since the advent of electronic scoring in May of 1993.
? Four of the last five, and eight of the last 10, Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.

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