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Bristol Fantasy Forecast

BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Food City 500
Sunday, March 21, 2010 in Bristol, TN

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to action March 21st with the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway’s half-mile of high banks. Bristol ran the first of many legendary Cup races on July 30th, 1961, and has been thrilling fans ever since. This all-concrete, high-banked, high-speed track has been dubbed the “World’s Fastest Half Mile”.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 5 Mark Martin
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 11 Denny Hamlin
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 33 Clint Bowyer
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 31 Jeff Burton
9) 39 Ryan Newman
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 14 Tony Stewart
12) 2 Kurt Busch
13) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
14) 17 Matt Kenseth
15) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
16) 9 Kasey Kahne
17) 99 Carl Edwards
18) 47 Marcos Ambrose
19) 1 Jamie McMurray
20) 00 David Reutimann
21) 83 Brian Vickers
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 82 Scott Speed
24) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

If you’re looking for a safe bet, go with Busch to win – either Kurt or Kyle. Together, the Busch Brothers have dominated Bristol events in recent years with eight victories since the start of the 2002 season – five by Kurt and three by Kyle, including a season sweep of last year’s two events. Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon share the series lead for Bristol wins among active drivers, at five apiece. Darrell Waltrip still holds the all-time BMS win record, with 12.

The Food City 500 is the season’s first short-track race and it starts a “short-track doubleheader” since the following week, the series goes to the .526-mile Martinsville Speedway. The two weeks of old-school competition result from a schedule adjustment of several years ago. Consecutive short-track events once were routine.

BRISTOL DRIVER STATS
Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.5, 10th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.002 mph, 11th-fastest

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Three wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 10.2
? Average Running Position of 12.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.6, second-best
? Series-high 397 Fastest Laps Run
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.338 mph, third-fastest
? 3,394 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), fourth-most
? 202 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? Three top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 11.6
? Average Running Position of 13.3, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best
? 238 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 359 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.367 mph, second-fastest
? 2,815 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), 13th-most
? 162 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 11.6
? Average Running Position of 9.3, second-best
? Driver Rating of 100.1, third-best
? 166 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.202 mph, seventh-fastest
? Series-high 4,076 Laps in the Top 15 (81.3%)
? 194 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.3
? Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.5, eighth-best
? 179 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 373 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.204 mph, sixth-fastest
? 3,317 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), fifth-most
? 166 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Five top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 11.5
? Average Running Position of 11.6, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 99.3, fourth-best
? 216 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.255 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,956 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), third-most
? 205 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.1
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
? 226 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.240 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,852 Laps in the Top 15 (56.9%), 12th-most
? 159 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Five wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.8
? Average Running Position of 13.9, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 91.7, ninth-best
? 146 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 382 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.096 mph, ninth-fastest
? 3,241 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), seventh-most
? 174 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 11.7
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.0, 11th-best
? Series-high 456 Green Flag Passes
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.048 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,970 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), 10th-most
? 180 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 97.5, sixth-best
? 228 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 114.143 mph, eighth-fastest
? 4,020 Laps in the Top 15 (80.2%), second-most
? 190 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 20.0
? Driver Rating of 87.5, 13th-best
? 152 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 325 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 14.1
? Average Running Position of 14.7, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.2, 12th-best
? 220 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 113.984 mph, 13th-fastest
? 3,196 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8%), eighth-most

Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Kingsford/Scott Branded Products Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 6.5
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
? Series-best Driver Rating of 108.2
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.396 mph

BRISTOL HIGHLIGHTS
? Groundbreaking for Bristol International Speedway, as Bristol Motor Speedway was originally known, took place in 1960.
? The name changed to Bristol International Raceway in 1978, then to Bristol Motor Speedway in May 1996.
? The surface was changed from asphalt to concrete in 1992.
? There have been 42 different pole winners, led by Cale Yarborough and Mark Martin (nine). Martin swept both poles at Bristol last season.
? 37 different drivers have won, led by Darrell Waltrip (12).
? Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.
? The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards in the night race of 2008.
? 79 of 97 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 51 from the first four spots. But both races last season – swept by Kyle Busch -were won from a starting position outside the top 10.
? Only one active driver averages a top-10 finish: Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose, who has an average finish of 6.5, has run two races at Bristol, both last season.
? Last year’s night race had a margin of victory of .098 seconds, the second-closest MOV at Bristol since the advent of electronic scoring in May of 1993.
? Three of the last four Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.

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