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Brickyard Fantasy Forecast

INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Allstate 400 at the Brickyard, Sunday July 27, 2008

This Sunday, Cup drivers make their only appearance of 2008 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. Drivers will make 160 laps around this flat (9 degree corners, 0 degree straightaways), 2.5-mile quad-oval. This legendary track began operating in 1909, and is the second-oldest surviving speedway in the world, second only to the Milwaukee Mile in Wisconsin. NASCAR began racing there in 1994 with the inaugural Brickyard 400.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar tracks such as Pocono, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 18 Kyle Busch

2) 20 Tony Stewart

3) 17 Matt Kenseth

4) 8 Mark Martin

5) 24 Jeff Gordon

6) 2 Kurt Busch

7) 48 Jimmie Johnson

8) 99 Carl Edwards

9) 29 Kevin Harvick

10) 83 Brian Vickers

11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

12) 1 Martin Truex Jr.

13) 31 Jeff Burton

14) 07 Clint Bowyer

15) 9 Kasey Kahne

16) 11 Denny Hamlin

17) 5 Casey Mears

18) 12 Ryan Newman

19) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

20) 16 Greg Biffle

Indianapolis Motor Speedway?s Victory Lane has transformed itself into a Hall of Fame of sorts. The list of winners reads like a who?s who of NASCAR. Of the 14 races, NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions have won 12. The only Brickyard winners who are not also series champions are Ricky Rudd (1997) and Kevin Harvick (2003). Additionally, each Indy winner was in the top 10 in points going into the Brickyard race.

?Kissing the Bricks? ? the traditional celebration of the winning team ? often foreshadows a series championship. Six winners in the 14-race history of the Brickyard 400 have gone on to win the series championship in the same year. These include Jimmie Johnson in 2006, Tony Stewart in ?05, Jeff Gordon in ?01, Bobby Labonte in ?00, Dale Jarrett in ?99, and Jeff Gordon in ?98.

Though not a past champion, all focus will likely be on points leader Kyle Busch. Busch, winner of two consecutive races and seven overall in 2008, owns statistics that suggest an Indy win. All three of his Brickyard races have netted him top-10 finishes, he has run 70% of his laps in the top 15, and he owns an average finish of 7.0 which tops all drivers with multiple starts.

SELECTED BRICKYARD DRIVER STATS

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M?s Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 7.0
? Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 98.3, seventh-best
? 12 Fastest Laps Run, tied for eighth-most
? 129 Green Flag Passes, tied for seventh-most
? 336 (70.0%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 76 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 7.6
? Average Running Position of 8.2, third-best
? Series-high Driver Rating of 121.4
? Series-high 76 Fastest Laps Run
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.751 mph, second-fastest
? 406 (84.6%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 86 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? Four top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 13.3
? Average Running Position of 8.5, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 106.1, fourth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.048 mph, fifth-fastest
? 404 (84.2%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 62 Quality Passes, tied for seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 01 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
? Five top fives, nine top 10s
? Average finish of 14.4
? Average Running Position of 9.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.9, fifth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.056 mph, fourth-fastest
? 419 (87.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? Series-high 92 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 8.9
? Driver Rating of 89.9, 11th-best
? Eight Fastest Laps Run, 14th-most
? 150 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 255 (53.1%) Laps in the Top 15, 10th-most
? 66 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 7.7
? Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
? Driver Rating of 108.7, third-best
? 22 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 170.145 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 432 (90.0%) Laps in the Top 15
? 84 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
? One top five, three top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.4
? Average Running Position of 10.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
? 30 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 343 (71.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
? 60 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Jack Daniel?s Chevrolet)
? One top five
? Average finish of 8.5
? Average Running Position of 12.7, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.3, 10th-best
? 242 (75.6%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best percentage
? 56 Quality Passes (average of 28 per race), fourth-best average (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top 10
? Average finish of 16.0 in two races
? Average Running Position of 12.4, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.1, eighth-best
? 10 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? 246 (76.9%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-best percentage
? 67 Quality Passes (average of 33.5 per race), series-best average

INDIANAPOLIS HIGHLIGHTS
? Indianapolis Motor Speedway has existed since 1909, and is the original “Speedway,” the first racing facility historically to incorporate the word into its name.
? With a permanent seating capacity for more than 257,000 people and infield seating that raises capacity to an approximate 400,000, it is the largest and highest-capacity sporting facility in history.
? There have been 14 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since the first race was held there in 1994.
? Five drivers have competed in all 14 races at IMS: Jeff Burton, Bill Elliott, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
? Jeff Gordon won the 1994 inaugural race.
? Jeff Gordon leads all pole winners with three.
? Nine drivers have won, led by Jeff Gordon with four.
? Dale Jarrett (two) and Tony Stewart (two) are the other multiple winners.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won five races, more than any other organization.
? Seven races have been won from a top-five starting position.

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