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Brickyard Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: Brickyard 400
THE PLACE: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, July 31, 2011 – 1:19pm/et, 12:19/ct

This Sunday, Cup drivers make their only appearance of 2011 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the Brickyard 400. Drivers will make 160 laps around this flat (9 degree corners, 0 degree straightaways), 2.5-mile quad-oval. This legendary track began operating in 1909 and remains one of the oldest surviving speedways in the world. NASCAR began racing there in 1994 with the inaugural Brickyard 400.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 18 Kyle Busch
4) 99 Carl Edwards
5) 22 Kurt Busch
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 29 Kevin Harvick
9) 4 Kasey Kahne
10) 39 Ryan Newman
11) 16 Greg Biffle
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
14) 20 Joey Logano
15) 17 Matt Kenseth
16) 5 Mark Martin
17) 31 Jeff Burton
18) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
19) 6 David Ragan
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
22) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
23) 00 David Reutimann
24) 2 Brad Keselowski
25) 27 Paul Menard

BRICKYARD DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 18.3
• Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.1, fourth-best
• 81 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 227 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.715 mph, second-fastest
• 611 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6%), 10th-most
• 128 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 93.3, 10th-best
• 22 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• 277 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.475 mph, fifth-fastest
• 655 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), eighth-most
• 155 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.7
• Average Running Position of 14.0, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 94.0, eighth-best
• 17 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 253 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.296 mph, ninth-fastest
• 673 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), sixth-most
• 155 Quality Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobile 1 Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 8.3
• Average Running Position of 9.0, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 109.3
• 86 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 278 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 169.952 mph
• 788 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%), second-most
• Series-high 184 Quality Passes

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 9.9
• Average Running Position of 13.4, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.1, sixth-best
• 28 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 215 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• 695 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), fifth-most
• 145 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 15.6
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.8, 12th-best
• 31 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.218 mph, 11th-fastest
• 704 Laps in the Top 15 (73.3%), fourth-most
• 130 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.9
• Average Running Position of 10.3, third-best
• Driver Rating of 97.7, fifth-best
• 51 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 251 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.422 mph, seventh-fastest
• 788 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%), second-most
• 140 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Good Sam-Cheerios Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 11.6
• Average Running Position of 12.4, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 89.6, 13th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.073 mph, 13th-fastest
• 589 Laps in the Top 15 (73.6%), 11th-most
• 120 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
• One top five, one top 10; one pole
• Average finish of 21.0
• Average Running Position of 11.5, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 106.4, second-best
• Series-high 105 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.453 mph, sixth-fastest
• 481 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 15.1
• Average Running Position of 14.0, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 92.7, 11th-best
• 665 Laps in the Top 15 (69.3%), seventh-most
• 112 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 Quaker State/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.2
• Series-best Average Running Position of 8.6
• Driver Rating of 105.3, third-best
• 38 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.713 mph, third-fastest
• Series-high 814 Laps in the Top 15 (84.8%)
• 148 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• One top five, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.5
• Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
• 35 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 233 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 169.361 mph, eighth-fastest
• 638 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), ninth-most
• 127 Quality Passes, 10th-most

INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
• Four drivers have competed in all 17 races at the Brickyard since 1994: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
• Jeff Gordon won the 1994 inaugural race.
• Jeff Gordon leads all pole winners, with three.
• 10 drivers have won, led by Jeff Gordon, with four victories.
• Jimmie Johnson (three), Dale Jarrett and Tony Stewart (two each) are the other multiple winners.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won seven races, more than any other organization.
• Nine races have been won from a top-five starting position.
• Two drivers have won from the pole: Kevin Harvick in 2003 and Jimmie Johnson in 2008.
• Tony Stewart (8.2), Jeff Gordon (9.4) and Kevin Harvick (9.9) are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
• Three of the last five Indianapolis races ending under green had a margin of victory under one second.

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