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Brickyard Fantasy Forecast

INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Brickyard 400
Sunday, July 25, 2010 in Speedway, IN

This Sunday, Cup drivers make their only appearance of 2010 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the Brickyard 400. Drivers will make 160 laps around this flat (9 degree corners, 0 degree straightaways), 2.5-mile quad-oval. This legendary track began operating in 1909, and now that the Milwaukee Mile has ceased racing activity (at least temporarily), Indy becomes the oldest surviving speedway in the world. NASCAR began racing there in 1994 with the inaugural Brickyard 400.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 14 Tony Stewart
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 9 Kasey Kahne
6) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 99 Carl Edwards
10) 5 Mark Martin
11) 00 David Reutimann
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 18 Kyle Busch
15) 2 Kurt Busch
16) 39 Ryan Newman
17) 83 Reed Sorenson
18) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 1 Jamie McMurray
21) 17 Matt Kenseth
22) 20 Joey Logano
23) 47 Marcos Ambrose
24) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
25) 19 Elliott Sadler

BRICKYARD DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Third in points
? Three wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.9
? Average Running Position of 13.5, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 104.9, second-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 189 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.764 mph, second-fastest
? 542 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), fifth-most
? 110 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Ninth in points
? Two wins, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 8.5
? Series-best Average Running Position of 8.4
? Series-best Driver Rating of 111.8
? Series-high 85 Fastest Laps Run
? 225 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 169.854 mph
? Series-high 676 Laps in the Top 15 (84.5%)
? Series-high 149 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Four wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
? Average finish of 8.6
? Average Running Position of 14.3, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 96.2, fifth-best
? 21 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? 245 Green Flag Passes, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.402 mph, fifth-fastest
? 530 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3%), eighth-most
? 134 Quality Passes, second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 10.8
? Average Running Position of 14.8, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.9, 11th-best
? 25 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 184 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? 537 Laps in the Top 15 (67.1%), sixth-most
? 114 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? 17th in points
? Two top fives, four top 10s
? Average finish of 16.0
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 91.4, 12th-best
? 30 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.028 mph, eighth-fastest
? 564 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5%), fourth-most
? 104 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? 21st in points
? One top five, one top 10
? Average finish of 17.3
? Average Running Position of 13.3, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.0, fourth-best
? 51 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 168.851 mph, 12th-fastest

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
? Fourth in points
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 17.3
? Driver Rating of 93.3, eighth-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.528 mph, third-fastest
? 404 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1%), 13th-most
? 109 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? 14th in points
? Six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
? Driver Rating of 104.8, third-best
? 34 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.421 mph, fourth-fastest
? 656 Laps in the Top 15 (82.0%), second-most
? 122 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Enters Indianapolis 11th in points
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 15.4
? Average Running Position of 11.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 90.7, 13th-best
? 230 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? 628 Laps in the Top 15 (78.5%), third-most
? 119 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Prilosec OTC Chevrolet)
? Seventh in points
? One top five, four top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.2
? Average Running Position of 12.7, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.1, ninth-best
? 33 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 200 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.107 mph, sixth-fastest
? 484 Laps in the Top 15 (60.5%), 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? Sixth in points
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 14.6, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 92.8, 10th-best
? 15 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
? 204 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 169.048 mph, seventh-fastest
? 535 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9%), seventh-most
? 127 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Eighth in points
? Four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 15.4
? Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 93.6, sixth-best
? 518 Laps in the Top 15 (64.8%), ninth-most
? 83 Quality Passes, 13th-most

INDIANAPOLIS MOTOT SPEEDWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? Indianapolis Motor Speedway has existed since 1909, and is the original “Speedway,” the first racing facility to incorporate the word into its name.
? With a permanent seating capacity for more than 250,000-plus people and infield seating that raises capacity to an approximate 400,000, it is the largest and highest-capacity sporting facility in history.
? There have been 16 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since the first race in 1994, which was won by Jeff Gordon.
? Four drivers have competed in all 16 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
? Jeff Gordon leads all pole winners with three.
? Nine drivers have won, led by Jeff Gordon with four victories.
? Jimmie Johnson (three), Dale Jarrett and Tony Stewart (two each) are the other multiple winners.
? Hendrick Motorsports has won seven races, more than any other organization.
? Eight races have been won from a top-five starting position.
? Tony Stewart (8.5) and Jeff Gordon (8.6)are the only active drivers to average a top-10 finish.
? Three of the last four Indianapolis races ending under green had a margin of victory under one second.
? 14 of the 16 races have been won by a past, reigning or future NASCAR Sprint Cup champion. The only two that were not: Ricky Rudd in 1997 and current points leader Kevin Harvick in 2003.

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