Atlanta Fantasy Forecast

THE RACE: AdvoCare 500
THE PLACE: Atlanta Motor Speedway
GREEN FLAG: Sunday, September 4, 2011 – 7:46pm/et, 6:46/ct

The AdvoCare 500 is on top this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, an insanely fast track and arguably the quickest on the Sprint Cup circuit. Drivers will make 325 laps around this 24-degree, 1.54-mile quad-oval. Its claim to fame is not only its speed, but its close finishes. The legendary Dale Earnhardt finished 0.010 seconds ahead of Bobby Labonte in March 2000. Kevin Harvick beat Jeff Gordon by 0.006 seconds in March 2001. And Carl Edwards beat Jimmie Johnson by 0.028 seconds in March 2005.

The following drivers have the best odds of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on drivers’ history at this track including practice & qualifying runs, key in-race stats and final results. Drivers’ history at tracks of similar size and layout are included. Then by factoring in results from the last month of racing, the ever-powerful momentum is captured. Finally, drivers get a mulligan. The occasional “off” race won’t unduly harm them in the rankings.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 18 Kyle Busch
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 22 Kurt Busch
5) 24 Jeff Gordon
6) 99 Carl Edwards
7) 2 Brad Keselowski
8) 11 Denny Hamlin
9) 14 Tony Stewart
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 4 Kasey Kahne
12) 29 Kevin Harvick
13) 39 Ryan Newman
14) 33 Clint Bowyer
15) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
16) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
17) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
18) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
19) 9 Marcos Ambrose
20) 31 Jeff Burton
21) 6 David Ragan
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 5 Mark Martin
25) 78 Regan Smith

ATLANTA DRIVER STATS
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Six top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.6
• Average Running Position of 11.5, third-best
• Driver Rating of 99.4, second-best
• 255 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.460 mph, second-fastest
• 4,945 Laps in the Top 15 (75.9%), third-most
• 311 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
• Five wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.7
• Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 96.8, fifth-best
• 244 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 549 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.416 mph, third-fastest
• 4,712 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), fourth-most
• 321 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
• Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 8.7
• Average Running Position of 11.7, fourth-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 108.1
• Series-high 543 Fastest Laps Run
• 491 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.563 mph
• 4,445 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), fifth-most
• 272 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Military Intelligence/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.5
• Average Running Position of 14.4, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.9, 12th-best
• Series-high 676 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.243 mph, 10th-fastest
• 3,842 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 10th-most
• 268 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)
• Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 12.5
• Average Running Position of 13.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 91.7, eighth-best
• 267 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.269 mph, eighth-fastest
• 4,378 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Series-best Average Running Position of 9.9
• Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
• 201 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 483 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.379 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 5,277 Laps in the Top 15 (81.0%)
• 314 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Charter Communications Toyota)
• Three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 16.3
• Driver Rating of 87.4, 13th-best
• 264 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 522 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.230 mph, 11th-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 13.4, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.8, seventh-best
• 232 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 603 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.373 mph, fifth-fastest
• 3,975 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), ninth-most
• 227 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 15.4
• Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.1, ninth-best
• 355 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 4,380 Laps in the Top 15 (67.3%), sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
• Two wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 11.2, second-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, fourth-best
• 260 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.357 mph, sixth-fastest
• 5,218 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), second-most
• Series-high 351 Quality Passes

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Average finish of 30.5
• Average Running Position of 21.4, 22nd-best
• Driver Rating of 62.4, 24th-best

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST Auto Parts/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.0, 11th-best
• 178 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.250 mph, ninth-fastest

Paul Menard (No. 27 Quaker State/Menards Chevrolet)
• One top five, 2 top 10s
• Average finish of 22.0
• Average Running Position of 23.7, 24th-best
• Driver Rating of 61.3, 26th-best

Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Reserve Chevrolet)
• One top five, 11 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 14.8, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• 519 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
• 4,364 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), eighth-most
• 295 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobile 1 Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.8, sixth-best
• 279 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.309 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,826 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), 11th-most
• 255 Quality Passes, ninth-most

ATLANTA HIGHLIGHTS
• Fireball Roberts won the pole and race for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1960.
• Ryan Newman has seven poles, six of which came consecutive races from 2003 to 2005.
• Bobby Labonte heads the list of active drivers with six victories.
• 14 races have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006.
• 59 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.
• There have been seven season sweeps, most recently by Jimmie Johnson in 2007.

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