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Atlanta Fantasy Forecast

ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Emory Healthcare 500
Sunday, September 5, 2010 in Hampton. GA

The Emory Healthcare 500 is on top this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, an insanely fast track and arguably the quickest on the Sprint Cup circuit. Drivers will make 325 laps around this 24-degree, 1.54-mile quad-oval. Its claim to fame is not only its speed, but its close finishes. The legendary Dale Earnhardt finished 0.010 seconds ahead of Bobby Labonte in March 2000. Kevin Harvick beat Jeff Gordon by 0.006 seconds in March 2001. And Carl Edwards beat Jimmie Johnson by 0.028 seconds in March 2005.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. The rankings are based on a statistical formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 2 Kurt Busch
2) 48 Jimmie Johnson
3) 17 Matt Kenseth
4) 24 Jeff Gordon
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 11 Denny Hamlin
7) 29 Kevin Harvick
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 9 Kasey Kahne
10) 99 Carl Edwards
11) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 33 Clint Bowyer
14) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
15) 31 Jeff Burton
16) 39 Ryan Newman
17) 5 Mark Martin
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 43 A.J. Allmendinger
21) 1 Jamie McMurray
22) 98 Paul Menard
23) 47 Marcos Ambrose
24) 12 Brad Keselowski
25) 20 Joey Logano

ATLANTA DRIVER STATS
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? 10th in points
? Three wins, three top fives, seven top 10s
? Average finish of 18.7
? Average Running Position of 14.4, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, sixth-best
? 233 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.796 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,223 Laps in the Top 15 (61.8%), 11th-most
? 342 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
? Ninth in points
? Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.8
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.8
? Series-best Driver Rating of 109.5
? 223 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.196 mph
? Series-high 3,220 Laps in the Top 15 (89.4%)
? Series-high 374 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Eighth in points
? Eight top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 12.9, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.5, seventh-best
? 138 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? 666 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.869 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,588 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), seventh-most
? 365 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/Jeff Gordon Foundation Chevrolet)
? Second in points
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 10.7, second-best
? Driver Rating of 101.8, second-best
? 155 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.717 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,857 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), second-most
? 365 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
? Third in points
? One win, two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 18.3
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.7, 11th-best
? 142 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 655 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? 305 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota)
? Fifth in points
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 15.9
? Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
? Driver Rating of 94.5, ninth-best
? 133 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.854 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,181 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), 13th-most
? 316 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Sixth in points
? Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 11.5, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.7, fifth-best
? 162 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 2,597 Laps in the Top 15 (72.1%), sixth-most
? 344 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser/Valvoline Ford)
? 16th in points
? Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 16.0
? Driver Rating of 93.3, 10th-best
? 210 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.675 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,261 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), 10th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Fourth in points
? Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 99.4, third-best
? Series-high 291 Fastest Laps Run
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.022 mph, second-fastest
? 2,629 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0%), fifth-most
? 316 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
? 19th in points
? Three top fives, three top 10s
? Average finish of 18.3
? Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best
? 288 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 SCOTCH BLUE Ford)
? Enters Atlanta 11th in points
? Three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.0
? Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.0, eighth-best
? 214 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 594 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.711 mph, 11th-fastest
? 2,647 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5%), fourth-most
? 353 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? 20th in points
? Two top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 24.6
? Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 87.6, 12th-best
? 109 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.810 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,306 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), ninth-most
? 333 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
? 18th in points
? One win, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.7, fourth-best
? 222 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 666 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.989 mph, third-fastest
? 2,657 Laps in the Top 15 (73.8%), third-most
? 363 Quality Passes, fourth-most

ATLANTA HIGHLIGHTS
? Fireball Roberts won the pole and race for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1960.
? 44 drivers have won a pole, led by Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman, each with seven.
? Six of Newman’s seven poles came in consecutive races between March 2003 and October 2005.
? 42 drivers have won a race; 22 have won more than once, including Kurt Busch, who won two of the last three races.
? Dale Earnhardt scored nine victories, more than any other driver. Cale Yarborough is second, with seven.
? Bobby Labonte heads the list of active drivers with six victories. Labonte is tied with Richard Petty for third on the all-time win list at Atlanta.
? The Wood Brothers have 12 victories, more than any organization. They last won there in 1993 with Morgan Shepherd.
? 14 races have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Both races last season were won from the second starting position.
? 58 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.
? There have been seven season sweeps, most recently by Jimmie Johnson in 2007.
? Two of the last three races had a margin of victory under a half second.

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