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Atlanta Fantasy Forecast

ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Kobalt Tools 500
Sunday, March 7, 2010 in Hampton, GA

The Kobalt Tools 500 is on top this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, an insanely fast track and arguably the quickest on the Sprint Cup circuit. Drivers will make 325 laps around this 24-degree, 1.54-mile quad-oval. Its claim to fame is not only its speed, but its close finishes. The legendary Dale Earnhardt finished 0.010 seconds ahead of Bobby Labonte in March 2000. Kevin Harvick beat Jeff Gordon by 0.006 seconds in March 2001. And Carl Edwards beat Jimmie Johnson by 0.028 seconds in March 2005.

Here’s a look at some of the most memorable races at AMS:
? July 31, 1960-Fireball Roberts wins the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

? Nov. 5, 1978-Richard Petty thought he had defeated rival Cale Yarborough to win the race, however, a scoring snafu is discovered afterwards and the victory is awarded to Donnie Allison.

? Nov. 15, 1992-Alan Kulwicki may have finished second in the race, but it was good enough for him to overtake Bill Elliott and claim his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship by a slim 10-point margin. Many deemed this race to be one of the greatest NASCAR races ever. It also marked the final race for Richard Petty and was the first career race for Jeff Gordon.

? March 11, 2001-Kevin Harvick holds off Jeff Gordon by .006 seconds to record his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory. The victory came on the heels of the tragic loss of Dale Earnhardt at Daytona just a few weeks earlier. Earnhardt’s famed black Chevrolet had been painted white and re-numbered 29, with the rookie Harvick given the daunting task of driving the car. It was an emotional win for owner Richard Childress and marked the second straight win for his team at the Atlanta spring race.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll find themselves moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 24 Jeff Gordon
4) 29 Kevin Harvick
5) 2 Kurt Busch
6) 18 Kyle Busch
7) 33 Clint Bowyer
8) 14 Tony Stewart
9) 99 Carl Edwards
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 5 Mark Martin
12) 11 Denny Hamlin
13) 31 Jeff Burton
14) 83 Brian Vickers
15) 9 Kasey Kahne
16) 00 David Reutimann
17) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
18) 20 Joey Logano
19) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
20) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
21) 39 Ryan Newman
22) 1 Jamie McMurray
23) 90 Casey Mears
24) 82 Scott Speed
25) 43 A.J. Allmendinger

SELECTED ATLANTA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.7
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.7
? Series-best Driver Rating of 110.1
? 210 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.121 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,929 Laps in the Top 15 (89.9%)
? 296 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
? Seven top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.7
? Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 95.4, sixth-best
? 134 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 593 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.777 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,290 Laps in the Top 15 (70.3%), seventh-most
? 304 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.3
? Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, third-best
? 145 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.684 mph, seventh-fastest
? 2,709 Laps in the Top 15 (83.1%), second-most
? 344 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two wins, two top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 19.7
? Driver Rating of 93.4, eighth-best
? 195 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 534 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.640 mph, 10th-fastest
? 1,882 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), 13th-most
? 281 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 17.7
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 90.3, 10th-best
? 136 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 560 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.504 mph, 12th-fastest
? 265 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.0
? Average Running Position of 11.4, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 98.6, fifth-best
? 137 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.687 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,345 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), sixth-most
? 280 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 13.1
? Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 105.0, second-best
? Series-high 289 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.189 mph
? 2,593 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6%), third-most
? 306 Quality Passes, third-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.5
? Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
? 213 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 481 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.660 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,361 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), fifth-most
? 278 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), ninth-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 16.9
? Average Running Position of 15.0, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 88.2, 13th-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.630 mph, 11th-fastest
? 2,135 Laps in the Top 15 (65.5%), ninth-most
? 259 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, three top 10s
? Average finish of 15.3
? Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.2, ninth-best
? 110 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.684 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,901 Laps in the Top 15 (64.8%), 12th-most
? 261 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? Two wins, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 17.0
? Driver Rating of 88.8, 11th-best
? 133 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.443 mph, 13th-fastest
? 1,924 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 11th-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
? Two top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 24.4
? Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 88.5, 12th-best
? 109 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 171.792 mph, fourth-fastest
? 2,021 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9%), 10th-most
? 256 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.9
? Average Running Position of 10.6, third-best
? Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
? 219 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 631 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.044 mph, third-fastest
? 2,545 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1%), fourth-most
? Series-high 352 Quality Passes

OTHER ATLANTA HIGHLIGHTS
? Originally called Atlanta International Raceway, the track was then a 1.5-mile paved speedway.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta was on July 31, 1960, won by Fireball Roberts from the pole.
? It was renamed Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.
? The track layout was reversed and the track was re-configured to 1.54 miles in 1997.
? 44 drivers have won a pole, led by Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman, each with seven.
? Six of Newman’s seven poles came in consecutive races between March 2003 and October 2005.
? 42 drivers have won a race; 22 have won more than once, including Kurt Busch, who won the first race last season. In that event, Busch scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0.
? Dale Earnhardt scored nine victories, more than any other driver. Cale Yarborough is second with seven.
? Bobby Labonte heads the list of active drivers with victories, with six. Labonte is tied with Richard Petty for third on the all-time win list at Atlanta.
? The Wood Brothers are the most productive car owners with 12 victories. They last won there in 1993 with Morgan Shepherd.
? 14 races have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Both races last season were won from the second starting position.
? 58 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.
? There have been seven season sweeps, most recently by Jimmie Johnson in 2007.

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