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Atlanta Fantasy Forecast

ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Pep Boys Auto 500
Sunday, September 6, 2009 in Hampton, GA

The Pep Boys 500 is on top this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, an insanely fast track and arguably the quickest on the Sprint Cup circuit. Drivers will make 325 laps around this 24-degree, 1.54-mile quad-oval. Its claim to fame is not only its speed, but its close finishes. The legendary Dale Earnhardt finished 0.010 seconds ahead of Bobby Labonte in March 2000. Kevin Harvick beat Jeff Gordon by 0.006 seconds in March 2001. And Carl Edwards beat Jimmie Johnson by 0.028 seconds in March 2005.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other 1.5 mile tracks including Lowes and Texas, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Atlanta.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 48 Jimmie Johnson
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 99 Carl Edwards
4) 17 Matt Kenseth
5) 14 Tony Stewart
6) 2 Kurt Busch
7) 11 Denny Hamlin
8) 18 Kyle Busch
9) 83 Brian Vickers
10) 16 Greg Biffle
11) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12) 33 Clint Bowyer
13) 9 Kasey Kahne
14) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
15) 5 Mark Martin
16) 31 Jeff Burton
17) 39 Ryan Newman
18) 00 David Reutimann
19) 29 Kevin Harvick
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
21) 07 Casey Mears
22) 26 Jamie McMurray
23) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 20 Joey Logano

2-Week Showdown On Tap For Chase Berths
The ?Race to the Chase? is wrapping up, this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway and then, the annual ?cut-off? event at Richmond International Speedway on September 12th, both under the lights. Three drivers ? Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon ? have clinched spots in the 12-driver ?Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.? Nine spots left, two races to go.

Bubble Trouble Brewing On Either Side Of 12th Place
Matt Kenseth goes to Atlanta sitting in 12th place with a number of drivers trying to displace him, starting with 13th-place Kyle Busch who trails Kenseth by only 34 points. Also, 14th-place Brian Vickers is only 39 behind. Beyond the 12th-place bubble, merely 89 points separate 7th-place Ryan Newman from Vickers. Therein lays the potential for a lot of movement in the standings over the next two events.

Competition Update: Numbers Illustrate Closer-Than-Ever Racing
Through 23 races of the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, statistics reflect extremely close competition, starting with an average margin of victory of 1.039 seconds. Fourteen races have had a MOV under one second.

Following are other statistical nuggets, through 23 races:
? 13 different race winners (there were 12 all of last year)
? 9 different pole winners
? 7 different organizations in the top 12
? 41 drivers have led at least one lap
? 35 drivers have scored at least one Top 10 this year
? Average of 10 leaders per race
? Average of 18 lead changes per race
? Average of 20 green flag passes for the lead all along the track
? Average of 2,939 green flag passes per race

Consolation Prize: Earnhardt Looking To Build Momentum For 2010
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is out of contention to make the Chase, but that isn?t stopping him for trying to salvage his season with some solid runs. He finished third at Michigan and ninth at Bristol ? his first consecutive top 10 finishes since he had five in a row last fall at Lowe?s, Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. Atlanta bodes well for a continued upswing: Earnhardt has the third-best Driver Rating at Atlanta (101.4) behind only Jimmie Johnson (112.2) and Carl Edwards (108.8).

SELECTED ATLANTA DRIVER STATS
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
? Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.1
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
? Series-best Driver Rating of 112.2
? 185 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.915 mph, second-fastest
? Series-high 2,704 Laps in the Top 15 (92.2%)

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Four wins, 14 top fives, 22 top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 12.4
? Average Running Position of 10.4, third-best
? Driver Rating of 101.3, fourth-best
? 131 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 2,392 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5%), third-most
? 281 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
? Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 10.7
? Average Running Position of 9.7, second-best
? Driver Rating of 108.8, second-best
? Series-high 282 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.087 mph
? 2,515 Laps in the Top 15 (85.7%), second-most
? 286 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? Seven top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 13.8
? Average Running Position of 13.0, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, seventh-best
? 132 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? 514 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.665 mph, fourth-fastest
? 260 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two wins, two top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 18.6
? Average Running Position of 15.2, 12th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.5, eighth-best
? 195 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.438 mph, eighth-fastest
? 1,681 Laps in the Top 15 (57.3%), 11th-most
? 243 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, two top fives, two top 10s
? Average finish of 18.2
? Driver Rating of 89.4, 10th-best
? 127 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? 509 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.271 mph, 13th-fastest
? 223 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Three top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.9
? Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.7, sixth-best
? 213 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? 2,301 Laps in the Top 15 (78.4%), fifth-most
? 264 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? One win, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.7
? Average Running Position of 10.4, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 101.4, third-best
? 216 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 514 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 172.857 mph, third-fastest
? 2,326 Laps in the Top 15 (79.3%), fourth-most
? Series-high 297 Quality Passes

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? Four top 10s
? Average finish of 13.7
? Average Running Position of 12.6, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 89.0, 12th-best

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
? Seven top fives, 13 top 10s
? Average finish of 16.5
? Average Running Position of 11.7, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 89.3, 11th-best
? 2,218 Laps in the Top 15 (75.6%), sixth-most
? 243 Quality Passes, ninth-most

OTHER ATLANTA HIGHLIGHTS
? Originally called Atlanta International Raceway, the track was renamed Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on July 31, 1960, won by Fireball Roberts.
? Ryan Newman won six consecutive poles between March 2003 and October 2005, and leads all active drivers with seven poles.
? Dale Earnhardt scored nine victories, more than any other driver. Cale Yarborough is second with seven.
? 42 drivers have won a race at Atlanta; 21 have won more than once, including Kurt Busch, who won his second Atlanta race earlier this season. In that event, Busch scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0.
? Bobby Labonte has six victories, most among active drivers. Labonte is tied with Richard Petty for third on the all-time win list.
? The Wood Brothers are the most productive car owners with 12 victories. They last won there in 1993 with Morgan Shepherd.
? 14 races have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006.
? 57 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.
? Jimmie Johnson is the only active driver to average a top-10 finish (9.1).

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