STP 500 Preview

Will it be another stroll though the Martinsville Speedway park for Jimmie Johnson this weekend like it was last April? [Photo by John Harrelson/Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

This weekend marks the first stop of the year at the oldest track on the circuit for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series as the Martinsville Speedway hosts the STP 500.

Martinsville has a tight paper-clip shape and its inside curbs leave little room to race as the drivers muscle and shove their way around the bullring for 500 grueling laps. Qualifying will be key this weekend as in the 130 Martinsville events held to date, only 5 have been won by drivers who started outside the top 20. That coupled with the new knockout qualifying rules for 2014 should make for a interesting weekend all around as the series rides a streak of five different winners to open the season. Martinsville is a tough old-school short track racing type of circuit and both driver and car need to be tough enough to survive 500 laps.

Here are a few drivers to watch in this Sunday’s STP 500.

Jimmie Johnson

Dan Margetta:  Ol’ Six-Time hasn’t found victory lane yet this year and the naysayers are beginning to whisper after last weekend’s tire failure derailed a likely win. But have no fear, this is Martinsville and Jimmie Johnson and Team 48 virtually own this place with eight victories and they enter this weekend as the heavy favorite.   Johnson owns the best driver rating at the track and he holds a strong 5.33 Martinsville average finishing position, a stat that is even more impressive when one learns it is 3.8 in the last 20 races held here. This should be the weekend where Jimmie Johnson officially enters the 2014 Chase in his quest for Cup number 7 by driving into victory lane at Martinsville.

Jeff Gordon

John Wiedemann: Sticking with the Hendrick Motorsports group, Jeff Gordon could be the driver to challenge Jimmie Johnson for the rights to take home the clock this weekend.  Gordon also has eight victories at the paperclip shaped track, including the race last fall.  In twenty-four races, Gordon has not recorded a top ten only three times and don’t expect this weekend to be another one of those.  Gordon and Johnson were the class of the field last week until tire failures got in the way.  Gordon was just laps away from securing a spot in the Chase and I expect him to accomplish that this weekend with a victory at Martinsville.

Clint Bowyer

DM:  Overall, Clint Bowyer has developed into a solid flat track racer and the team is on a bit of a roll after a strong run in California before a late tire issue and spin put them back in the finishing order. Last year Bowyer finished second and third in the two Martinsville events and while he has yet to win here, he holds 10 top ten finishes in his 16 starts. The team brings a brand new chassis to Martinsville this week and Bowyer could just be the sixth different driver to score a win this season on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin

JW:  What eventually turned out to be a piece of metal in his eye kept Denny Hamlin out of the race last weekend at California.  With that vision issue taken care of, Hamlin returns to the track this weekend at Martinsville with only one thing in focus, victory lane.  Hamlin has four victories at Martinsville including three in a row in 2009-10.  Sixteen races have resulted in fourteen top twelve finishes and an average finish of eighth for the Toyota driver.  The hunger after missing last week will drive the Virginia driver to the front at his home track.  Expect Hamlin to be a contender this weekend.

Matt Kenseth

DM:  Martinsville has never been one of Matt Kenseth’s favorite tracks but in some respects those tracks that drivers love to hate end up producing the kind of challenge that drives them to excel. Kenseth has improved greatly here lately including a strong second place run last fall after leading 202 laps. If the team can figure out the knockout qualifying correctly and secure a good starting spot, Kenseth could surprise some people this weekend. Besides, the team that won seven times a year ago is still searching for their first 2014 victory and it could come this weekend at Martinsville.

Brad Keselowski

JW:  Martinsville just seems like it should be in Brad Keslowski’s wheelhouse.  Keselowski is an old-school throwback racer and Martinsville is definitely an old-school track.  Stats aren’t on Keselowski’s side, but if you’ve read this column before, you know we don’t care about stats as much when it comes to Brad.  Keselowski does have a tenth place average finish and captured his best result in the fall race last season bringing his Ford home fourth.  Penske racing still seems to have a bit of advantage on the 2014 rules package for qualifying but it does seem that other teams are catching up.  With the possibility of qualifying getting rained out it will be interesting to see how that fact may affect Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano.

Ryan Newman

DM:  Ryan Newman is another driver that has improved on his flat track results over the last few years, scoring a Martinsville win to go along with 11 top ten finishes. Newman also has flat track wins at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Indianapolis and his #31 Richard Childress Racing team brings a brand new chassis to Martinsville this weekend. Watch for Newman to quietly remain among the lead lap cars for most of the race before making a charge toward the finish, a charge that could end up in victory lane.

Kyle Busch

JW:  Coming off his California victory last weekend, it will be interesting to see how Kyle Busch runs this weekend.  With the different dynamics brought in by the new Chase qualifying format, Busch is most likely locked into the Chase and needs to ride out the schedule through the Richmond fall race.  Will the freedom and lack of pressure open the door for more excitement from Rowdy?  Will he take even more chances and just go for wins?  I think so.  Fans have a love/hate relationship with more on the latter side, but I believe that Kyle is the most talented racer out there.  Busch has made some moves this season that are a reminder of one seven time champion.  The new found freedom may just see Busch dominate the field like he is in a Nationwide or Camping World Truck series race.

Carl Edwards

DM:  The current NASCAR Sprint Cup Series point leader is my long shot pick this week? That’s correct, as Carl Edwards enters the Martinsville event at 40-1 odds in Las Vegas. He has yet to win at Martinsville but this team has overcome quite a bit this season to consistently run strong and already notch a victory. One thing to consider, there is rain in the forecast for Friday which could affect qualifying and Edwards as the point leader, holds the prime starting spot should qualifying get washed out.

Brian Vickers

JW:  Brian Vickers has only sixteen starts at Martinsville and recorded three top ten finishes in those races.  Last spring he crossed the finish line in eleventh after qualifying third.  With an average finish of nineteenth, Vickers doesn’t have the greatest track record at Martinsville, but other factors such as the teams that he ran for need to be thrown into the equation.  This season Vickers has improved every week on his way to a seventh place finish at California last weekend.  Follow the trajectory and it looks like a solid top five for Vickers this weekend and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him mix it up with the leaders including his teammate Clint Bowyer.

Dan Margetta

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